North Africa: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030

National Intelligence Council Research Report: North Africa: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030

Model projections available for North Africa indicate a clear increase in temperature over the next 20 years that is expected to continue throughout the 21st century, probably at a rate higher than the estimated global average. Model simulations also suggest a drying trend in the region, particularly along the Mediterranean coast, driven by large decreases expected in summertime precipitation. Because coastal areas historically receive by far the largest amount of rainfall in North Africa, future decreases will likely have a significant and noticeable impact.

Based on global climate projections and given inherent uncertainties, the most significant impacts of climate change in North Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt) will likely include the following:

Water Resources Stress: