Non-OPEC peak oil threat receding

Non-OPEC peak oil, or the point of maximum production of oil, will not occur before 2014, according to industry analysts Wood Mackenzie.

The company has disputed views that a pinnacle may be in sight and contends strong supply growth will prevail in the short term. Barring unexpected disruptions to production, Wood Mackenzie expects total global capacity to grow steadily from 86.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2006 to 96.7 million bpd in 2010.


“Since 2004…investment in both non-OPEC and OPEC projects has opened up…spare capacity,” said Kate Broughton, Wood Mackenzie’s head of oils research. “This upstream investment has given us a clearer vision of medium-term supply growth potential.”

But, says Kate Dourian, Platts’ Middle East editor, it is just a matter of time before non-OPEC oil declines because production is not being replaced fast enough to meet consumption. Dourian also stressed oil production is not as cut and dry as some analysts make out. “Some sources say half the world’s oil has already been produced, whereas Aramco is saying there is still another trillion barrels out there,” she said.

Arabian Business