No real alternative to oil: Rise in demand seems unavoidable

Interest in alternative, sustainable energy sources has never been stronger.

Yet, despite accelerating investment, the output capacity of these energy forms remains barely more than embryonic. Fossil fuels, reliable and accessible, will continue to provide more than 90 percent of global commercial energy needs to 2030, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Leo Drollas, an executive director at the Center for Global Energy Studies in London, shares the assessment. “Oil will be the world’s most important energy source for some time,” he said. “Many times we hear that it’s the end of oil, it’s the end of the world. It’s never happened.”

Oil provides about 40 percent of the world’s primary energy, according to both OPEC, the exporter’s cartel, and the International Energy Agency, in Paris, which advises consumer governments.

Another 20 percent comes from natural gas, with the remainder coming mainly from coal, with relatively minor inputs from nuclear, biomass, hydro-power and other renewable sources.

By 2030, oil’s share in the energy mix will barely have declined, to 36.5 percent, according to OPEC. Similar forecasts have been made by Washington.

International Herald Tribune