No Plan for Oil Shortages in North America

At the 2009 ASPO Peak Oil Conference, the security outlook for North America was given a surprising twist by Rick Munroe, a Canadian farmer who learned about peak oil some years ago and decided to find out if the military or the government was doing any planning to address the problem.

His efforts turned up three good studies: Alan Smart (ACIL Tasman, 2004); Kathy Leotta (PB, 2004); and Helen Peck (Defence Academy, 2006). But within the actual gears of government, he found naught but denial.

One government official assured him that because Canada is a member of the IEA and has 200 years of oil supply in the tar sands, people should relax. (If you don’t immediately realize what a cretinous statement that is, see “The IEA’S Come-to-Jesus Moment” and “Tar Sands: The Oil Junkie’s Last Fix,” Part 1 and Part 2.)

Munroe found numerous studies about peak oil by the GAO (U.S. Government Accountability Office), which were apparently dropped from any further consideration. As early as 1981 the GAO wrote: “It is questionable whether an adequate organizational structure exists which could effectively manage a crisis.”

The IEA’s messaging has been clearer. In 2005 it warned that pre-planning is critical, and that the public must be primed and well informed in advance. Yet their strategies for dealing with the impending oil crisis are laughable, boiling down to a short term “surge” in production, and drawing down emergency reserves-at most, a 90-day solution.

Energy and Capital