New Peak Oil Date from Deffeyes

In the January 2004 Current Events on this web site, I predicted that world oil production would peak on Thanksgiving Day, November 24, 2005. In hindsight, that prediction was in error by three weeks. An update using the 2005 data shows that we passed the peak on December 16, 2005.

“A decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires” that I present an update on the data sources and the interpretation.

1. The underlying methodology is Hubbert’s postulate that the rate of new oil discoveries depends on the fraction of the oil that has not yet been discovered. Similarly, the rate of oil production depends on the fraction of oil that has not yet been produced. A test of Hubbert’s hypothesis, using the long history of US oil production, is on pages 35