Middle east oil and long term global supply

Michael R. Smith, 2003

There are now 60 countires where production is in decline and all but a few special exceptions show that peak occured when between 40 % and 60 % of reserves had been extracted and around 10 to 20 years after discovery reates had peaked.
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Conversely economists argue that the energy market wil automatically create the right conditions to increase investment leading to more oil production (and indeed commercial access to other energy resources). But regrettably the potential for growth in oil output is restricted even at huge investment levels. Whilst there are lots of new fields waiting to be found, especially offshore, there is scant chance of finding more than a few dozen substantial accumulations.

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