Michael T Klare: Signs emerge of global crime wave

…Acknowledging these risks, Chen Xiwen spoke ominously of the need for greater government preparedness to contain mass incidents and other forms of social disorder. “If a mass incident occurs, leading cadres must all go to the front line, and talk to the people directly, face-to-face, to explain things,” he urged, rather than simply rely on police coercion and thereby provoke greater public anger.

This syndrome – declining employment in the core economy, growing reliance on jobs in marginal enterprises or in an unofficial black-market economy, and rising rates of violent crime leading to increased state repression – is likely to be repeated in a range of other countries suffering from the global economic crisis.

Russia is at particular risk from this syndrome. According to a World Bank report released in March, its economy is expected to contract by a staggering 4.5% in 2009 and unemployment is expected to reach 12%, doubling the 2008 figure.

The consequences are sure to be severe: “[T]he number of poor people in Russia will likely increase by 2.75 million, wiping out part of the gains in reducing poverty in recent years.” This, in turn, will force more people to make ends meet by any means necessary, including participation in the informal economy, petty thievery, and organized crime – thereby inviting increased repression by state authorities.

Asia Times