Megaprojects Predict Decline of Oil Production

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There is nothing theoretical about megaprojects analysis, only a bunch of best guesses as to actual production from new oil fields measured against estimated near term declines in production from old oil fields and estimated changes in global demand for oil, all by year. Those guesses may be close to the truth or not but they are not based on theory. They are based on announced production intentions and historical facts of decline and demand used to estimate future decline rates and demand. All three areas, when projected into the future, will differ from the eventual reality, but if they are fairly close – even just in the right ballpark – the results may give us a meaningful estimate of the timing of peak oil.