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Page added on February 20, 2014
Math Models Predicted Global Uprisings
Just over a year ago, complex systems theorists at the New England Complex Systems Institute warned that if food prices continued to climb, so too would the likelihood that there would be riots across the globe. Sure enough, we’re seeing them now. The paper’s author, Yaneer Bar-Yam, charted the rise in the FAO food price index—a measure the UN uses to map the cost of food over time—and found that whenever it rose above 210, riots broke out worldwide. It happened in 2008 after the economic collapse, and again in 2011, when a Tunisian street vendor who could no longer feed his family set himself on fire in protest.”
17 Comments on "Math Models Predicted Global Uprisings"
Northwest Resident on Thu, 20th Feb 2014 5:03 pm
You don’t need math models to predict global uprisings when the cost of food exceeds what enough people are able to pay. Hunger is a primordial driving force in humans and all animals. When hunger strikes and there is no remedy, chaos and mayhem is unavoidable. We are seeing that now in many parts of the world, and very likely we’ll be seeing it in a lot more places before long.
J-Gav on Thu, 20th Feb 2014 5:37 pm
Whenever the food price index goes over 210, riots break out. Okay, but the article doesn’t even state where that index stands at the moment!
Nevertheless, it seems pretty clear that food prices are on the rise and that, sooner or later, the impact will cause social unrest even in “developed” countries. After all, people everywhere have the same need to eat at an affordable price …
tahoe1780 on Thu, 20th Feb 2014 5:52 pm
Let’s see, “catastrophic” droughts in California, Brazil, etc. Ten calories of depleting fossil fuel embedded in production/delivery of every calorie of food consumed. Not looking good. Could be an interesting summer.
ghung on Thu, 20th Feb 2014 5:56 pm
Jan 9, 2014
“The FAO said its annual Food Price Index averaged 209.9 points for 2013. While that marked a 1.6-percent drop from 2012 levels, it was still the third highest value on record.
The full-year results came after prices remained virtually unchanged in December, with a sharp increase in dairy prices and a steep decline in cereal prices cancelling out each other, the organization remarked.
“Last month, our index remained elevated as strong demand for certain high-protein foods continued to drive prices up, countering falling prices of major crops after last year’s abundant harvests,” the FAO said in its report.”
h ttp://www.dw.de/fao-food-price-index-logs-thirds-highest-level-on-record/a-17350956
ghung on Thu, 20th Feb 2014 5:57 pm
The article is from 2012.
Ravi Nathan on Thu, 20th Feb 2014 6:00 pm
FAO Food Price index is 203.4 in Jan 2014 down 4.4 percent from Jan 2013. The impact of California and Brazilian drought is not felt yet.
DC on Thu, 20th Feb 2014 6:07 pm
Yes, you dont need to be a scientist to know if there one thing that will cause riots-100% guaranteed, its lack of food. The Romans, Sumerians,Mayans, Egyptians, China, they all knew that too-going back at 5000 years and longer. They didn’t need complex systems analysts to tell them that either.
I have observed people have amazing tolerances for oppression, wealth inequality, corruption, stupidity, propaganda\disinformation and so on. But shortage of food, not so much.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 20th Feb 2014 6:45 pm
We are getting close to a situation of water, food, and energy shortages. Price will not matter when there is not enough to go around. We keep drawing down on our buffer stocks of food. We see the same with energy. Throw in water stress. That sounds like a potent mix of combustibles. Yet, the population keeps rising
Stilgar Wilcox on Thu, 20th Feb 2014 7:54 pm
“Whenever the food price index goes over 210, riots break out. Okay, but the article doesn’t even state where that index stands at the moment!”
That’s the part that chapped my hide J-GAV. There’s no chart, no graph, or defined basis for points, list of food price index for different countries, nothing other than the 210 threshold. If someone has a link to the full information it would be greatly appreciated.
Stilgar Wilcox on Thu, 20th Feb 2014 7:56 pm
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
There is a link with food price index.
J-Gav on Thu, 20th Feb 2014 9:14 pm
Thanks Ravi.
GregT on Thu, 20th Feb 2014 10:48 pm
“complex systems theorists at the New England Complex Systems Institute warned that if food prices continued to climb, so too would the likelihood that there would be riots across the globe”
Yet again, why listen to our scientists, or our scholars? They’re so damn pessimistic about pretty much everything these days. Much more optimism from listening to our politicians, and the media, I mean seriously, what could possibly go wrong?
Makati1 on Fri, 21st Feb 2014 2:13 am
“… NECSI (New England Complex Systems Institute) is an academic non-profit organization working with government agencies …”
Your taxpayer dollars at work, making techies wealthy while they spew such BS.
GregT on Fri, 21st Feb 2014 4:21 am
Makati1,
Are you saying that you don’t agree that food unaffordability, or inaccessibility can lead to civil unrest?
Makati1 on Fri, 21st Feb 2014 6:35 am
No, I’m saying that this article/study was a waste of taxpayer money. The other point about food/riots is obvious to anyone with an average I.Q. and education. ^_^
meld on Fri, 21st Feb 2014 9:29 am
I agree with Makati1, total waste of money, just look out the front door or talk to your neighbours.
Kenz300 on Fri, 21st Feb 2014 11:44 am
Food crisis, water crisis, declining fish stocks crisis, unemployment crisis, Climate crisis and an OVER POPULATION crisis.
Too many people and too few resources.
Endless population growth is not sustainable.