Lugar Addresses Global Food Security

Here are the basic parameters of the problem:

First, the world’s population is projected to increase to about 9.2 billion people by 2050. Growing affluence in China, India, and elsewhere is increasing demand for resource-intensive meat and dairy products. If this trend toward richer diets continues, those 9.2 billion people may eat enough food to feed 13 billion people at today’s nutritional levels. Based on projections for population growth, rising incomes and more meat consumption, it is estimated that the world’s farmers will have to double their output by 2050. The predicted global demand for food both foreshadows a bright future for Indiana farmers and signals an ominous need to increase global agriculture.

Second, food security is closely tied to energy costs that will continue to be highly unpredictable. As we know, farming is an energy intensive business. Crops have to be transported efficiently to market, and petroleum based fertilizers and pesticides are used in many agriculture systems. Energy price spikes in the future are likely to hit with even greater ferocity than the spike we experienced in 2007 and 2008. Moreover, if peak oil theories are correct, at some point in the next few decades we may see sharp declines in supply that will raise fossil fuel costs to unprecedented levels.

Third, water scarcity is projected to increase in coming decades in response to population growth, urbanization, and land use pressures. According to a recent report by the Royal Institute of International Affairs, a half billion people currently live in countries with chronic water shortages. But that figure is expected to rise to 4 billion by 2050. One model estimates that by 2025, cereal production could be 300 million metric tons below what could be produced with adequate irrigation, representing a loss equivalent to the entire U.S. cereal crop in 2000.

Fourth, these factors are converging at a time when global climate change may challenge farmers on every continent to deal with changing weather patterns, different agricultural pests, and new water conditions. These changes could cut food production in many parts of the globe – especially in the Southern Hemisphere. It is estimated that a two degree Celsius increase in global temperature would cut agricultural yields in Africa by as much as 35 percent. Thus, farmers around the world will be asked to meet the demands of global demographic expansion, even as they may be contending with a degrading agricultural environment that significantly depresses yields in some regions.

AP