LNG terminal defeated in Maine, but the larger problem remains

Press Herald

So apparently the vote by Perry residents to keep such tankers out of Passamaquoddy Bay was a wise thing to do.

But it only dodges the real issue, one that, as far as I know, has never been addressed by this newspaper: the depletion of fossil fuels in North America and, indeed, the world.
During last year’s debate about a possible LNG terminal near Searsport, summer resident and investment banker Matthew Simmons expressed his concern this way: “Wow, to even think about sending one of those [tankers] up to the top of Penobscot Bay. That should be the last, last thing we should we do before we just, y’know, dismantle our economy.” This from a man who has spent his life studying energy and who has visited the facility in Qatar where LNG originates.

So apparently the vote by Perry residents to keep such tankers out of Passamaquoddy Bay was a wise thing to do. But it only dodges the real issue, one that, as far as I know, has never been addressed by this newspaper: the depletion of fossil fuels in North America and, indeed, the world.

The very fact that we debate whether to send aircraft-carrier-sized vessels filled with methane into our most treasured areas is a testament to the crisis we refuse to face. As geologist Jean Laherrere says in a paper for the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, “the fact that … natural gas discoveries peaked in the 70’s is for the majority a well hidden secret.” This, he says, is “devastating for [the] US,” because production necessarily tracks discovery: you can only extract gas that you have found.

It follows, as discoveries decline, so does extraction. And indeed, natural gas production has been flat for years in both the US and Canada, even as demand skyrockets. Yet hundreds of gas-fired generation facilities are being built across the country. We currently depend on gas for 50% of our electricity generation, as well as for 50% of our home heating. Methane molecules are the “feedstocks” for the production of agricultural fertilizers, plastics, and industrial chemicals. But as Simmons says, “Sixty-five percent of the world’s gas supply … is now in decline.”

Unlike oil, 99% of our gas comes from North America. Gas from abroad is not easy to get as it doesn’t ship well. Oil can be poured into tankers and offloaded into pipelines. Gas must be frozen and pressurized, then carefully thawed and depressurized at the terminal. But with gas in the western hemisphere in terminal decline, there is no place else to get it but from places like Qatar. Problem is, everyone else wants it, too.

A symptom of gas scarcity is cost: “the wellhead price of natural gas skyrocketed 400%” since 2000, according to Randy Udall of the Community Office of Resource Efficiency in Colorado. This happens even as we spud more wells; 17 must be drilled each day just to keep supply flat. “North America has not run out of natural gas,” Simmons reminds us. “What we are short of is any way to grow our energy supply.”

Canada is bound by NAFTA to sell us their gas, even as their production goes flat and their consumption rises, just like the US. Problems will arise when they need to burn their gas more than they need to ship it to us—it’s much colder in Canada. You might counter that we only import 15% of our gas from Canada. Problem is this represents over 50% of Canada’s production. I wonder if we will find weapons of mass destruction in Alberta and seize their gas fields.

Unless we pull our heads out of the sand and learn to use less gas, we can count on the future bringing more of what we’ve seen in the past: vast blackouts, fertilizer plant shut-down, and higher, higher prices—for everything. Either that, or float bombs up the coast of Maine.

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