Learning from the British in Iraq

Under the terms of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), President Barack Obama is currently bound to withdraw all U.S. forces from Iraq by the end of 2011. Three factors, however, make it probable that the president will attempt to renegotiate the terms of the agreement as it approaches its conclusion: Iraqi security forces will continue to be logistically dependent on the U.S. military. The United States will be increasingly dependent on oil from Iraq and the wider region. And the American left will be unable to exert significant electoral pressure on the legislative or executive branch, given the U.S. foreign policy establishment’s calculation of the strategic consequences of a complete withdrawal.

Given their continued dependency on the U.S. government and despite their resentment of the occupation, Iraqi leaders might be inclined to agree to a SOFA extension. This would likely entail, at a minimum, continued close air support and logistical assistance to Iraqi Security Forces, as well as a continued advisory mission within the Iraqi defense and interior ministries. It would probably also include continued access to airfields in Iraq to serve as a deterrent against Iran. The Senate would not likely require ratification of a SOFA extension, given its prior decision to accept the Bush administration’s claim that the SOFA isn’t a treaty and therefore doesn’t require Senate approval. A less conspicuous U.S. military mission of perhaps fewer than 50,000 troops would also generate less public opposition, thereby reducing pressure on the Senate to exercise such oversight.

The history of the British Empire’s relationship with Iraq serves as a detailed guide to what the current U.S.-Iraq relationship might evolve into and why. The British drew down their military involvement in Iraq in the early 20th century only to increase their involvement in other ways. Even as the United States negotiates a SOFA extension, it will likely follow the British lead in this transformation of the relationship with its newest Middle Eastern client state.

FPIF