Latin American oil: past and future

2005 was a bumper year for Latin American oil production. According to BP

Almost 40 percent of Latin American oil production, almost 4 million barrels per day, are currently exported out of the region, mostly to North America. The exported share varies by country. Mexico for example exports more than half of its production, while Ecuador exports about 73 percent of what it produces.

Even assuming regional consumption remains flat (not a far-fetched scenario if the coming global recession hits the region hard), the region as a whole will be faced with the stark choice of exporting and reducing their internal consumption or, alternatively, reducing exports. There will be no surplus left. The timing, of course, shall vary according to each country