Kurt Cobb: Which Matters Most? The Size of the Tap or the Tank?

Energy optimists are fond of citing very large numbers for worldwide fossil fuel resources such as oil and natural gas. But they conveniently leave out the critical variable. How fast can we actually produce these resources?

Global economic growth is inextricably tied to growth in energy supplies, especially oil and natural gas. As the economy grows, the rate of production for basic fuels must grow to accommodate that expansion. If it doesn’t, growth can slow and even stop. Can the rate of production for oil and natural gas keep pace with the demands of a growing global economy?

To respond by saying that we have a huge amount of oil and natural gas left in the ground misses the point. The key issue is how fast that remaining underground inventory can be extracted and turned into usable fuel. In other words, it is the size of the tap that matters more than the size of the tank.

Four central factors determine the rate at which oil and natural gas can be brought to the surface and processed: 1) the characteristics of the reservoir, 2) the size and efficiency of the infrastructure including trained personnel, 3) the availability of external inputs such as energy and water used to process the raw product, and 4) the ability to dispose of associated wastes.

Most experts now acknowledge that the easy-to-get oil and natural gas have largely been found. The hard-to-extract resources are what’s left to exploit. Let’s take three cases that illustrate the situation we now find ourselves in.

Scitizen