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Page added on September 8, 2019
Kurt Cobb: Oil prices and the coming financial ‘Ice Age’
Albert Edwards turned bearish on stocks back in 1996—well, not exactly bearish, but cautious. He recommended to clients that they overweight long-term, high-quality bonds and therefore underweight stocks in their portfolios. It turns out that clients who followed his advice fared not quite as well as those 100 percent invested in stocks but also took far less risk. Edwards believes that events that are currently unfolding will actually vindicate his approach.
Although Edwards never mentions energy as central to his thinking, I believe that energy and oil, in particular, are related to his views. I’ll develop this later, but first more on Edwards.
Edwards is a long-time financial strategist for the French investment bank and financial services giant Société Générale. He has an investment thesis that arose from the experience of Japan in the 1980s. He calls it the “Ice Age” thesis. It amounts to this: Gigantic debts that built up during Japan’s boom in the 1980s led to exceptionally sluggish economic growth after the Japanese stock market bust and finally to deflation and ultra-low interest rates.
Edwards expected the same thing to happen to Europe and the United States for the same reason. He got some of what he expected after the market crash of 2008/2009: ultra-low interest rates and sluggish growth. What didn’t show up was deflation.
But Edwards kept expecting his Ice Age thesis to play out in a subsequent recession that he felt couldn’t be more than four or five years away. At regular intervals he gloomily predicted a stock market crash resulting from a deflationary shock. But the recession and crash kept getting postponed—until now, he thinks.
Edwards was one of the very few who correctly predicted the drop in bond yields this year and he believes the world is about to enter the long-awaited terminal phase of the “Ice Age” he outlined back in 1996. In this terminal phase, he expects U.S. interest rates to turn decidedly negative and U.S. stocks to decline by more than 80 percent—that is, unless the Federal Reserve decides to interrupt the decline by buying stocks directly to bolster the market or to hand out free money to the populace in a sort of quantitative-easing-for-all strategy.
Edwards writes: “The key for me is whether QE2 [that is, another round of forced credit and money infusions into the economy by central banks] can revive the economic cycle, not equity prices temporarily.” He believes QE2 cannot revive economic activity at this point. And, that implies a bust that will rival if not exceed the crash of 2008, he says—and a prolonged malaise of slow or no growth afterward as part of a financial hangover from bingeing on too much credit.
Edwards hints that “unprecedented monetary measures” might be taken to forestall outright deflation which, of course, implies entirely different investment advice than he is giving now.
So, how does all this relate to energy and, in particular, oil. When reading Edwards’ latest pronouncements, I couldn’t help thinking about Gail Tverberg’s almost parallel thesis that what will doom oil supplies is prices that are too low for producers to make a profit. That is just what has been happening this decade along with the slowly creeping financial Ice Age described by Edwards. Could the two be related?
Tverberg answers the question indirectly in a second piece entitled “Why stimulus can’t fix our energy problems.” For Tverberg affordability is the problem. Widening wealth inequality leads to stagnant and even lower incomes for a greater and greater number of people who are then unable to afford not only direct energy purchases as easily as they have in the past, but are also faced with affordability issues for practically everything else. That’s because energy is embedded as a cost of production, distribution and sale in everything we buy.
So, a sluggish economy—made sluggish by excessive debt (Edwards)—combined with widening wealth inequality (Tverberg)—leads to generally lower employment and depressed wages than otherwise would have been the case—which leads to prices that are too low for energy producers, in particular, oil producers to make a profits sufficient to replace oil reserves that have been depleted or, in the case of oil exporting nations, pay for social welfare costs. According to Tverberg, this inability to make much profit among oil producers—shale producers have had negative free cash flow for years—feeds back into the economy, especially in the United States where the previously broadly booming oil and gas industry has been a major source of employment and business activity. (The boom now seems confined to the Permian Basin in Texas.)
A low oil price also leads to lower investment and social welfare payments in major oil exporting nations which reduces employment and incomes below what they otherwise would have been. The overall sluggishness of the world economy (compared to previous expansions) reinforces the effect of low oil prices.
The sweet spot in the oil industry is a price which insures healthy profits for the industry (with which they can invest in new wells) and at the same time does not tip the world into recession because the price is unaffordable to consumers. There is a supposition in Tverberg’s work that these two price bands no longer overlap. Prices low enough for the world’s consumers to afford are too low for producers. Prices high enough for producers to make a decent profit are too high for consumers to afford over the long term.
Now, here’s how Tverberg’s thinking hooks up most directly with Edwards’. Tverberg writes: “It looks as though growing debt at ever-lower interest rates is becoming a less effective workaround for the economy’s real need, which is a need for a rapidly growing supply of under $40 per barrel oil and other low-priced energy products.” Edwards sees debt creation as becoming a less and less potent way to create economic growth in a debt-saturated economy. Tverberg goes to what she believes is the heart of the matter claiming that added debt cannot seem to provide oil and other energy sources at cheap enough prices for the economy to flourish. The financial Ice Age seems central to the views of both.
And, both Edwards’ and Tverberg’s outlook lead to the same result, a crash in the world economy that will be difficult to turn around. For Edwards there is the possibility that after a long retrenchment period, economic conditions could return to what passes for normal. For Tverberg, however, her thesis suggests a permanent alteration of conditions for modern societies in which energy insufficiency becomes a feature that limits and even stops economic growth.
If either one is correct, look for an economic tsunami in the not-to-distant future.
65 Comments on "Kurt Cobb: Oil prices and the coming financial ‘Ice Age’"
Robert Inget on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 11:41 am
When Johnson was President (during Vietnam era) our budget was an astounding 100 Billion $.
In the last almost three years of tax cuts for the very rich our one year deficit will top one Trillion in 2019 alone. (FOX NEWS)
This was made possible, not plausible, with a minimum of inflation, cause USD is the world’s exchange.
China is winning Trump’s war on trade by force of numbers alone.
By throwing sanctions at every problem we are forcing China
to buy and sell elsewhere. Mexico, Canada, S. Korea, Vietnam the EU, Russia, don’t levy tariffs for instance.
Russia and China by leveraging Ecuador’s great oil reserves
will eventually be able to destroy USD value.
More on that as it happens.
WE, Americans are in really deep doo.
Our ‘foreign policy’, ‘economic policy’ health, energy, military,
housing, agriculture, all either non existent or currupted.
Solutions?
twocats on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 11:48 am
China had recently given in to easing (they seem to vacillate between tight and ease). just one example.
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3015783/beijing-eases-short-term-liquidity-smaller-financial-firms
and US has recently reversed tightening, which lasted less than a year.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-01/fed-move-ends-the-short-era-of-global-quantitative-tightening
Globally dollar strength has spawned lots of easing.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/03/the-us-dollar-just-hit-a-two-year-high-and-is-threatening-to-make-another-major-milestone.html
Very difficult to have a recession if your are just printing a positive GDP. But…
twocats on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 11:50 am
tons and tons of hay have been made over Rising Debt, QE and Negative interest rates, but few have made convincing arguments for how it ACTUALLY falls apart.
This article was actually pretty good:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4289797-economic-future-negative-interest-rate-world
twocats on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 11:57 am
in the end – it appears only one of two things stop the train:
1) rebellion by those people unable to access these liquidity pools that are severed from real economic activity
2) actual shortages of critical goods (like oil) due to inability to profit in an economy increasingly tied to manuevers on paper and rents. see #1
twocats on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 12:02 pm
this is the financial ice age cobb/Tverberg are referring to – a situation where you have “positive growth”, rent costs to the moon, businesses not making a profit but still not failing due to cheap loans, shortages developing in a critical area, eventual collapse after decades of misallocated resources.
Robert Inget on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 12:31 pm
Forty dollars a barrel is not, will not become a reality.
Shale breakeven seems to average around $50.
Over 40 US oil and service companies are in bankruptcy this year. For farmers, oil companies, trade war depression already arrived.
First of all, Trump must either do what he always has done.
Put USD in default or double down on inflationary wars.
(The Taliban seems to be target #1 today)
Maybe take on Iran, Iraq, (for helping Iran) there’s always Afghanistan. Now 18, I’ll bet many here don’t remember why we began fighting Taliban. In a few days we rehash 9/11 misery,
pay attention.
Speaker Pelosi won’t do a full on impeachment cause she’s third in line. Bad optics. Maybe Trump will simply do a major freak-out that will be impossible to ignore. Still, that Trillion dollar deficit for 2019 won’t go away when Trump’s does.
Democrats are determined to attempt too slow, even stop drilling, exploration and fracking.
Canada is not doing tariffs on oil expected to be exported to China by 2022.
The US is slowly, all too slowly, moving to replace oil with natural gas through existing grids and power plants and electrified ground transport.
The problem remains, our US government (except departments Pentagon and Science) fails to take remedial action against Climate Change.
Enviros fight fracking and pipelines as though they had replacement energy already at hand ready to go.
(anyone remember ‘shovel ready’ infrastructure projects?)
FF shortages, higher prices, are problemactic long before
higher auto/truck/AG nuclear, solar, electrification becomes the norm.
All those bankrupt oil companies won’t be adding to any ‘glut’.
Outcast_Searcher on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 12:42 pm
So a basic thesis has been wrong for nearly a quarter of a century, and people under-invested in stocks due to that thesis have lost a fortune in terms of relative performance.
But they guy gets one short term interest rate call right, and the author thinks he’s insightful? How about luck averages out?
Gail T. is perpetually wrong, like the entire class of doomers.
The world is a large complex place, inhabited by VERY imperfect beings who are generally terribly short sighted, and therefore very poor planners.
It’s easy to nitpick about how things could be better. It’s FAR harder to actually predict things in a meaningful way or actually improve on the situation.
Cherry picking the issues and proclaiming doom is great sport, but given the horrendous track record of the doomers, what’s the point? Oh yes, for folks to sell “advice”.
Meanwhile the world marches on and, for example, the overall oil industry makes a HELL of a lot of money, over time.
Davy on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 12:56 pm
We are definitely in a financial end game of some kind considering how rates are going towards negative everywhere, debt levels continue to expand everywhere, and finally unfunded social liabilities that are ready to explode. You don’t have to be a doomer to smell something is wrong. The age-old question is time. I have been amazed how this decade unfolded. We can call it the can kicking decade. Can we do it another? Who knows this is uncharted waters? It is amazing what central management and wealth transfer polices can do. Yet, eventually the scheme implodes. They always do and this is certainly a scheme. On top of the scheme entering its late stage we have intense competition now among economic powers as they all slide into recession. That may be what gets us in the end, lack of cooperation.
twocats on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 1:03 pm
Oil industry makes a lot of money from overseas conventional and global downstream. the rate of return on US upstream is abysmal for almost everyone, and US upstream is the only thing keeping the train on the tracks.
Since 1996 there have been three massive bubbles blown, two have exploded (dot-com and housing). This third bubble dwarves them in every aspect. And this process started ten years prior to conventional peak. Now that peak has occurred its over.
Can asset prices be artificially suspended forever – I believe the answer is yes. Is everything else about Ice Age theory proving to be correct? A strong case could be made: also yes.
Duncan Idaho on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 7:01 pm
First of all, Trump must either do what he always has done.
Declare bankruptcy?
He has been bankrupt 6 times.
The “Presidency” is a perfect job for the Fat Boy– he can’t go bankrupt.
makati1 on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 9:05 pm
1. TPTB want the dollar to crash and lose its hold on the world economy. They want a global currency that they totally control. the IMF SDRs would be a good start.
2. The rest of the world is dumping dollars faster and faster every day. Trump is speeding up the process with his tariffs and sanctions to anyone whom he doesn’t agree with.
3. The West is so in debt that it has to crash under its own weight soon. If you think China and Russia don’t see this and are preparing for that day, you are fools.
Deny my assertions?
https://www.facebook.com/notes/joshua-ingram/the-new-world-currency-that-is-coming/498797643470/
https://www.cdfund.com/en/imfs-substitution-fund-to-kick-start-sdr-as-new-global-currency/
https://www.socialeurope.eu/outline-new-world-currency-system
The list is endless. How long until? I would guess less than 10 years, maybe less than 5, or even 1.
Why? When the US economy crashes, it will change everything. We shall see, soon.
Cloggie on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 10:56 pm
“Solutions?”
Abandon empire, let go of exceptionalism, become a normal great power.
330 million Americans, consisting of 197 million whites, 126 million non-whites, dominated by 7 million jews, are not going to dominate 7 billion people for ever, regardless how much said jews would want that. They can’t even dominate 640 million continental Europeans, as will soon become apparent.
Continue to dominate English and Canadians, that’s in the cards.
Cloggie on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 11:06 pm
“TPTB want the dollar to crash and lose its hold on the world economy. They want a global currency that they totally control. the IMF SDRs would be a good start.”
Why would Eurasia cooperate in a scheme, totally dominated by US oligarchs?
They won’t.
America is a spent force and will be treated as such.
Expect Eurasia to withdraw from IMF, UN, SC, WB, etc. soon and set up new organizations in Eurasia.
In a couple of decades, America will have been reverted to the state we Europeans found it in:
https://youtu.be/LT9YKjn67Og
Indigenious folks will have taken it back, perhaps minus a white, rightwing cowboy republic.
Cloggie on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 11:23 pm
“We are definitely in a financial end game of some kind considering how rates are going towards negative everywhere, debt levels continue to expand everywhere, and finally unfunded social liabilities that are ready to explode. You don’t have to be a doomer to smell something is wrong. The age-old question is time. I have been amazed how this decade unfolded. We can call it the can kicking decade. Can we do it another? Who knows this is uncharted waters?”
I have chartered waters for you, Dutch government debt since 1923 in terms of % GDP:
https://images.app.goo.gl/ubP3FYfKCcXn5W857
After the war we lost our empire, thanks to your “liberation” (conquest really). We had to “reinvent ourselves” and from a colonialist power we became involved in bringing France and Germany together and set up European institutions. The EU that resulted from that will soon get rid of a saboteur (England) and incorporate a new potent member (Russia) and together we are going to take over from the US as the new (=old) center of the white world.
How can the US reinvent itself after empire?
It can’t. The key phrase is “saving what can be saved”. Attempt to secede (whites) and seek help from Europe and become its junior partner. That’s the best you can hope for. If not, you become the first enslaved whites in world history.
makati1 on Sun, 8th Sep 2019 11:41 pm
Cloggie, the EU is so up the US’ ass (NATO) that it hasn’t seen daylight in decades. The EU is going down at the same time as the US. All your delusions that say otherwise are just that, delusions.
If you think TPTB in Europe are not the same as those in the rest of the world, you need some education. Those who really run the EU are not tied to one country or region. They want world domination. If it means destroying Europe and/or the US, so be it. Collateral damage.
I call the process, ‘The Great Leveling’. The average per capita income is about $18,000./yr. (PPP) in the world today. Can you live on that? That is what they are shooting for, or less. I would bet much less.
Davy on Mon, 9th Sep 2019 12:52 am
“We are definitely in a financial end game”
No shit stupid juanPaultard. The US Empire is going bye-bye. Time to learn how to speak Mandarin.
dumbass
Cloggie on Mon, 9th Sep 2019 1:40 am
“Cloggie, the EU is so up the US’ ass (NATO) that it hasn’t seen daylight in decades.”
That was true until the 2015 “refugee” invasion that initiated populism, 2016-Brexit and 2016-Trump. Things are changing dramatically.
“If you think TPTB in Europe are not the same as those in the rest of the world, you need some education. Those who really run the EU are not tied to one country or region. They want world domination.”
Wrong!
Hitler and Stalin successfully threw the jews out, something white Americans and English can only dream about. Initially I thought Macron was a Rothschild groupie too, but since he proposed to incorporate Russia into the European world I know he isn’t. All politicians in Europe are saying that we no longer can “rely” on America and must organize our own defense. Thanks Donnie!
(((TPTB ))) are losing everywhere: in Russia, EU, England, US, Syria, Iraq. They are losing against China. Time to burry the kikes politically.
makati1 on Mon, 9th Sep 2019 2:30 am
Cloggie, it is still true. The EU doesn’t move without asking the US’ permission.
Yes, they are, but the US still dominates EU actions. The ‘changes’ are destroying the EU and they are the fault of the US destroying the ME. When the US goes down, so will the EU and most of the debtor nations of Europe.
Even if you believe the fake numbers posted by governments, it is not a good picture.
Whereas, Asian debt as a percentage of GDP are all under, or around 50%. (The Philippines is about 40% and has reserves exceeding that amount.)
US foreign reserves in 2018 = ~$125B vs $22,000+B external debt.
EU reserves in 2018 = ~$303B vs $16,300+B external Debt.
China reserves in 2018 = ~$3+B vs ~$2B debt.
Netherlands reserves in 2019 = ~$42B vs ~$4+T Debt. WOW! (WIKI)
https://seasia.co/2019/01/15/latest-debt-to-gdp-ratio-for-southeast-asian-countries
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/european-union/foreign-exchange-reserves
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/european-union/external-debt–of-nominal-gdp
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/netherlands/external-debt–of-nominal-gdp
Yep! Europe is going to survive the next big SHTF moment with power to spare. LMAO!
JuanPaultard identity fraud on Mon, 9th Sep 2019 6:16 am
Davy on Mon, 9th Sep 2019 12:52 am
“We are definitely in a financial end game”
No shit stupid juanPaultard. The US Empire is going bye-bye. Time to learn how to speak Mandarin.
dumbass
Green People's Media on Mon, 9th Sep 2019 12:32 pm
Those of us engaged in local government know exactly what Gail Tverberg (and in this piece, Kurt Cobb) are getting at by talking about low wages of the non-elite working class.
A good go-to source for the “poverty skeptics” out there (and who in the Oil & Gas Industry is NOT a “poverty skeptic” along with being a climate skeptic–
This map, from national United Way:
https://www.unitedforalice.org/national-comparison
Find out what proportion of your state’s population is “ALICE, or Asset-Limited, Income-Constrained, Employed” persons. In Wisconsin we use the County-by-county ALICE map to see where the most stressed households are.
Income-constrained folks aren’t doing much to drive your “growth economy.” Our folks don’t have to wait for “doomer prediction” to come true; they’re already living in economic collapse.
Robert Inget on Mon, 9th Sep 2019 6:38 pm
I’m hoping the unskilled labor currently in the OVAL OFFICE loses his job.
Davy on Mon, 9th Sep 2019 6:49 pm
Cloggo’s champion.
“Renewables Threaten German Economy & Energy Supply, McKinsey Warns In New Report”
https://tinyurl.com/yyapjtop forbes
“A new report by consulting giant McKinsey finds that Germany’s Energiewende, or energy transition to renewables, poses a significant threat to the nation’s economy and energy supply. One of Germany’s largest newspapers, Die Welt, summarized the findings of the McKinsey report in a single word: “disastrous.” “Problems are manifesting in all three dimensions of the energy industry triangle: climate protection, the security of supply and economic efficiency,” writes McKinsey. In 2018, Germany produced 866 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, a far cry from its goal of 750 million tonnes by 2020. Thanks to a slightly warmer winter, emissions in Germany went down slightly in 2018, but not enough to change the overall trend. “If emissions reductions continue at the same pace as they did over the past decade, then CO2 targets for 2020 will only be reached eight years later, and 2030 targets will not be reached until 2046.” Germany has failed to even come close to reducing its primary energy consumption to levels it hoped. McKinsey says Germany is just 39% toward its goal for primary energy reduction.”
makati1 on Mon, 9th Sep 2019 8:07 pm
Interesting picture of Trump, Robert, but do you want him replaced by the freaks running against him? Better the freak you know…I think. He needs another four years to finish his destruction of Amerika. It won’t matter who inherits what is left.
makati1 on Mon, 9th Sep 2019 9:12 pm
THIRD WORLD AMERIKA: “From coast to coast, major U.S. cities are rapidly being transformed into rotting, decaying hellholes, and it is getting worse with each passing year….Only one country in the world has a higher per capita homicide rate than the city of Baltimore….Thanks to a rapidly growing homeless population and the worst rat epidemic the city has ever seen, health authorities are having to deal with outbreaks of typhoid fever and leprosy……With typhoid fever and even the return of the bubonic plague already big concerns, increasing homelessness in Los Angeles could also spark an increase in leprosy….Speaking of human poop, there is so much of it in the streets of Philadelphia that it has fueled an alarming outbreak of Hepatitis A cases….Of course the same thing is happening in just about every other major city around the country. The “worst drug crisis in American history” has resulted in hordes of homeless addicts mindlessly wandering about as they search for a way to get their next fix.”
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/as-the-nfl-season-begins-the-social-decay-in-nfl-cities-is-worse-than-ever
SLIP SLIDIN’
juanPaultard madness on Mon, 9th Sep 2019 9:17 pm
Davy on Mon, 9th Sep 2019 6:49 pm
makati1 on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 12:48 am
THIRD WORLD AMERIKA: “Suicide Rates In Rural America Jump, Nearly Half A Million Dead”
Suicides up 41% since 2000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-09/suicide-rates-rural-america-jump-nearly-half-million-dead
The rate of suicides will only increase as BAU collapse’ in the “exceptional” country.
Cloggie on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 1:12 am
Germany may have “missed” its targets, mostly because of a booming economy, but still made impressive progress. Last saturday I drove through entire Germany (800 km) and there is no place where you don’t see turbines, something the US can only dream about:
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-set-miss-key-energy-transition-targets-mckinsey
Gloating fake green dave leaves out the positive aspects of the transition from the same report: lower electricity prices for German industry and increased employment. Germany just acquired a new potent branche of industry.
https://www.mckinsey.de/news/presse/2019-09-05-energiewende-index
Empire dave should worry about his rotting, decaying third world cities. The only thing to be expected from these hell holes is an anti-white neo-bolshevik 2.0 revolution, lead by (((I AM THE MOB))) types.
Gives us a call, eh, when you are ready to terminate that stinking empire of yours, so we can set you free and park you in a separate white ethno-state where at least people don’t defacate in the streets, causing rat-plagues.
Still a coward “egalitarian”.lol?
Cloggie on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 1:23 am
BoJo closes down parliament for FIVE weeks:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7445533/Boris-Johnson-rages-yellow-belly-Jeremy-Corbyn-BLOCKING-election-call.html
“’You can’t hide forever!’ Boris Johnson vents fury at ‘yellow belly’ Jeremy Corbyn after MPs BLOCK his latest bid for snap election – then SHUTS Parliament for five weeks saying he will REFUSE to extend Brexit despite Remainer law”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-7445595/Jeremy-Corbyn-John-McDonnell-expose-dishonest-act-says-DOMINIC-SANDBROOK.html
“As they finally back Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell expose themselves as the most dishonest double act in our modern political history, says DOMINIC SANDBROOK”
Labour shows how worthless the current political class is in England today. They should have backed the May-deal the first time. All they did was playing games with the future of the country in an attempt to grab power, undermining trust in the democratic process. Wouldn’t be surprised if this ends in violence.
Brexit is the most stupid, disruptive event since 1945, seriously undermining the peace order in Europe.
The Anglo-led progressive West is coming to an end. Expect civil war, most of all in the US, and other wars for the system to arrive at a new steady state.
#PBM
The Left is going down!
Clogged on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 4:07 am
“Brexit is the most stupid, disruptive event since 1945, seriously undermining the peace order in Europe.”
Clogged, you had better get back on track. Your lover boy, the fat mongoloid with orange hair is a big Brexit supporter, not to mention he and BoJo are kissie friends.
Cloggie on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 4:22 am
Perhaps Donnie has the motivation I hope and think he has, namely blowing up empire intentionally. Hence his “love” for Brexit.
(((Larry Ludlow))) already downplayed BoJos hope for a good trade deal. Apparently Ludlow doesn’t like Brexit as much as his boss Trump does. Should give you reason to pause, CloggedBrain.
Davy on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 4:53 am
“lower electricity prices for German industry and increased employment.”
Bullshit cloggo, Deutschland has among the highest industrial rates in the world if I recall correctly.
Germany may have “missed” its targets, mostly because of a booming economy, but still made impressive progress.
Cloggo, I admire Germany and what they have done but not your Euro Chauvinism that painted a very different picture of reality. That is what my reference was about. YOU, not Germany and the lies.
“Empire dave should worry about his rotting, decaying third world cities.”
Our cities are fine cloggo. We have always had problems and successes. This is why our economy ends to be more dynamic than yours.
“Still a coward “egalitarian”.lol?”
Obviously, my point was well taken, the cloggo is triggered by the realization his agenda is a lie.
Davy on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 4:58 am
“Brexit is the most stupid, disruptive event since 1945, seriously undermining the peace order in Europe.”
This is very much about the EU overstepping their mandate, cloggo. The Brexit inspired people have balls and deserve a cheer for standing up to this tyranny. It will be disruptive and dangerous mainly for the battered EU economy. Peace is not an issue. There will be no Brexit war, stupid, as much as you want war.
juan paultard madness on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 4:59 am
Clogged on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 4:07 am
“Brexit is the most stupid, disruptive event since 1945, seriously undermining the peace order in Europe.”
Clogged, you had better get back on track. Your lover boy, the fat mongoloid with orange hair is a big Brexit supporter, not to mention he and BoJo are kissie friends.
Davy on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 5:44 am
“Using Formic Acid To Store Hydrogen”
https://tinyurl.com/yxt3gunx clean technica
“Hydrogen Energy Storage, Formic Acid Style The allure of formic acid is pretty clear in terms of energy storage. Compared to storing hydrogen as a compressed gas, formic acid could potentially provide for improved energy density and efficiency. It also fares well against the solid-state hydrogen storage platforms that have begun to emerge as alternatives to compressed gas. The potential for recycling carbon dioxide in formic acid production is another plus. However, there is no such thing as a free energy storage lunch. One big challenge is cost. The most recent development on the cost cutting score came out of Rice University in Texas just last week. A team of researchers there has been deploying electricity from renewable sources to generate formic acid directly in a reactor, without the need for additional — and expensive — purification steps.”
“The Long Road To Long Duration Energy Storage Another interesting aspect to formic acid energy storage is the long duration energy storage angle. As much as rechargeable battery technology has improved in recent years, the US Department of Energy is still in search of more efficient pathways for storing energy in bulk over long periods of time — like on the order of 10 to 100 hours. Currently, hydroelectric dams and pumped storage are the only forms that fit the bill. The Energy Department is looking into other next-generation storage pathways including flow batteries as well as a hydrogen peroxide approach to chemical storage for hydrogen. Other long duration research in the works includes storing thermal heat in sand, carbon blocks or specialized materials. Many of these pathways leverage the availability of abundant, low cost renewable energy.”
Davy on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 5:49 am
“Combining Solar & Farming Benefits Both”
https://tinyurl.com/yyvuot4e clean technica
“Now researchers at the University of Arizona have confirmed the benefits of growing crops beneath the shade provided by solar panels — more electricity, higher yields, and less water used. That last part is of vital interest to farmers in Arizona where access to water for irrigation is crucial.”
“We found that many of our food crops do better in the shade of solar panels because they are spared from the direct sun,” says Baron-Gafford. “In fact, total chiltepin fruit production was three times greater under the PV panels in an agrivoltaic system, and tomato production was twice as great!” Jalapenos produced a similar amount of fruit in both the agrivoltaics system and the traditional plot, but did so with 65% less transpirational water loss. “At the same time, we found that each irrigation event can support crop growth for days, not just hours, as in current agriculture practices. This finding suggests we could reduce our water use but still maintain levels of food production,” he added, noting that soil moisture remained approximately 15% higher in the agrivoltaics system than the control plot when irrigating every other day.”
Davy on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 5:59 am
“Challenges to making California’s grid renewable”
https://tinyurl.com/y2v7w3n3 energy skeptic
“I’ve always been amazed at a strange mental disconnect that’s common among renewable power advocates. On one hand, they freely acknowledge that industrial societies can’t function without stable power grids to supply electricity on demand, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year, and with 99.999% reliability. On the other hand, they insist that we have a moral duty to use non-dispatchable, intermittent, and generally unreliable power from renewables despite the fact that intermittency is the mortal enemy of a stable electric grid. The electrons from wind turbines and solar panels may be green and squeaky clean, but their intermittent electric current is the grid equivalent of sewage in a mountain stream. According to the California Independent System Operator, or CAISO, the biggest challenge of managing a greener grid is maintaining a precise balance between supply and demand as the percentage of intermittent power from renewables increases. To meet the challenge, CAISO is working overtime to develop a fleet of flexible power resources with the capacity to:
Sustain upward and downward ramp;
Respond for a defined period of time;
Change ramp directions quickly;
Store energy or modify energy use;
React quickly to meet expected operating levels;
Start with short notice from a zero or low-electricity operating level;
Start and stop multiple times per day; and
Accurately forecast operating capability.
While the contract price for green electricity from a wind- or solar-farm may be cheaper than the contract price for electricity from a conventional power plant, the downstream cost of making green power stable, reliable, and useful in the electric grid can be immense, which is why electricity in states that have implemented renewable portfolio standards is often more costly than it is in states that haven’t implemented RPS programs.”
Davy on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 6:05 am
“Russia Considers Possibility Of $25 Oil Next Year”
https://tinyurl.com/y29nolwm oil price
“Russia is considering the notion that oil prices may be as low as $25 per barrel in 2020, the country’s central bank said in its new forecast published on Monday, as cited by Reuters. Russia’s Central Bank has forecast in its macroeconomic forecast that oil could possibly hit that low due to falling demand for oil and oil products worldwide, as well as from disappointed global economic growth. The doom and gloom scenario was just one proposed by the bank. If that risk scenario actually materializes, Russia’s inflation could increase to 7% or 8% next year, on the back of falling gross domestic product to 1.5%– 2%. Russia is perhaps uniquely positioned to withstand low oil prices, although $25 per barrel is pretty bleak.”
Cloggie on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 6:06 am
““lower electricity prices for German industry and increased employment.”
Bullshit cloggo, Deutschland has among the highest industrial rates in the world if I recall correctly.”
If you want to quote McKinsey, don’t just quote the negative points:
https://www.mckinsey.de/news/presse/2019-09-05-energiewende-index
“Positive Entwicklung bei Arbeitsplätzen und Industriestrompreis ”
Hello on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 6:09 am
“Brexit is the most stupid, disruptive event since 1945, seriously undermining the peace order in Europe.”
I salute the brave people of the UK who fight to free themselves from the tyrannic Brüssel overlords.
Freedom ain’t free. Only the pathetic Germans/French/Spaniards/Italians/etc choose slavery to Brüssel over freedom.
Davy on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 6:14 am
you forgot Holland
Davy on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 6:15 am
“Positive Entwicklung bei Arbeitsplätzen und Industriestrompreis ”
hiding behind a language. This is an English forum, cloggo.
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 6:36 am
Adolf Hitler could not prove who his grandfather was, as his father was born illegitimately and his paternity was never established, meaning he could not prove his own “Aryan descent”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alois_Hitler
Hello on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 7:49 am
>>>> could not prove his own “Aryan descent”
Holy shit. Are you suggesting he’s in fact a negro? Could be, negros are a very genocidal species, slaughtering competing tribes to the last child, even as of today, while crying “racist” wherever they encounter gullible whites pathetic enough to listen.
Do you think Adolf is related? Thanks for bringing up a good point. I would have never thought.
Davy on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 8:18 am
“hiding behind a language. This is an English forum, cloggo.”
Oops, forgive me for being a moron again Cloggmeister Sir. I now see that was a quote, and even five year olds no how to use google translate nowadays. I’ll try real hard to act less stupid in the future.
Davy on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 8:28 am
“you forgot Holland”
Does anybody no what ‘etc’ means? Or how about the difference between ‘Holland’ and the ‘Netherlands’?
I’m feeling even stupider then usual today.
Davy on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 8:55 am
I do want to thank all those who have attacked me with giving me material for growth. I never could have grown up without y’all. I think it’s a good idea if I spent less time spamming this lame unmoderated forum with my bullshit and concentrated on my own blog.
joe on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 9:15 am
“Cloggie on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 1:23 am ”
Cant imagine that the labour policy makes much sense at all. My own guess is that they really dont HAVE a policy on brexit anymore other than they are now leading the remoaners in parliament and they wish to continue this pact with Plaid, SNP and Lib Dems hoping to secure some kind of non aggression pact to pick up marginal seats etc.
My opinion is that Boris Johnson will challange the Hillary Benn surrender bill in court because the act is incomplete, for example it forces him go to ask for an extension of art 50 if no deal is secured after Oct17 commission meeting. The law is quite clear that what he must do and even stipulates what the letter of request must contain. However the law never mentioned a single punishment should BoJo ignore or otherwise fail to deliver that letter in time to secure such an extention. My own guess is that this entire farce is designed to force Boris Johnson to bring back Theresa Mays BINO deal which can be resubmitted for debate and voted on in the new parliament which opens on Oct14. If after Oct17 there is no deal BoJo will ask for an extension, then resign and then there will be an election after Xmas, far too late for any new deal to be worked out. Watch out people, the Queen may be calling for Nigel Farage to visit her for his seal of office in 2020……….
Cloggie on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 9:28 am
“I salute the brave people of the UK who fight to free themselves from the tyrannic Brüssel overlords.”
Tyrannic?
The British volunteered to become member and they are free to go. No EU troops invading Britain like the Soviets did to Hungary and Czecho-Slovakia. The USSR as we all remember was an ally of the UK and US.
The EU is nothing but the sum of its member states. Yes, they are a Marxist club, but that’s because they are a vassal of the US. In fact the UK government is far worse than the EU average, thanks to the influence of Eastern Europe and western European populist parties.
And it remains to be seen on what terms the UK will leave. If there is any sense left in the British they sign the May-deal. If not, we in Holland are ready to host Shell and Unilever and even BA HQ’s. Oh and Scotland is on our wishlist as well. And while we’re at it, let’s have Ireland reunited.
joe on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 9:33 am
Actually Cloggie the British PEOPLE never voted to join the EU. All TREATIES were passed by Parliaments there was no EUSSR when the people voted to join a common market in 1975, certainly they were never told how far it was going to go. Sadly its that same logic that remoaners are using now to stay in. Oh well. It just proves that most debate is just sophistry.
Juan paultard madness on Tue, 10th Sep 2019 9:45 am
Davy said I do want to thank all those who have attacked me…
Davy said “you forgot Holland” Does anybody no what ‘etc’ me…
dissident said The US has zero legal authority outside its border…
Davy said “hiding behind a language. This is an English foru…