#317 Rob Gourdie is Professor of Biomedical Engineering and Mechanics at Virginia Tech. He is also Director of the Center for Heart and Reparative Medicine Research at the same university. He writes under the pen name of Tom Therramus. In his “day job,” he works on the repeating waves of electrical signals that drive the heart beat. Over the last decade he has developed an interest in another repeating pattern – waves of price volatility in oil – that he speculates are a Peak Oil-related phenomenon. His writings as Tom Therramus on oil market instability, and its impacts on economics, politics and climate change, have been posted at OilPrice.net, Greentechmedia.com, Resilience.com, RealClearEnergy.org, Nouriel Roubini’s Economonitor.com, and EuanMearns.com Energy Matters. His LinkedIn page (https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-therramus-602b3721/) lists his SKILLS as including “Asperger’s”, “Mild Numeracy”, “Vague Literacy” and “Being Kiwi.”
Links to articles on oil price volatility
1. 18 Feb 2019 – Waking into our new volatile age of oil price – http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/waking-into-volatile-oil-prices.php
2. 19 Feb 2018 – Is Volatility in Oil Price on the Way, Again ? http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/volatility-in-oil-price-on-the-way-again.php
3. 3 January 2016 – How oil price volatility explains these uncertain times http://oil-price.net/en/articles/how-oil-price-volatility-explains-uncertain-times.php
4. 14 January 2014 – Will Collapse in Oil Price Cause a Stock Market Crash? http://oil-price.net/en/articles/will-collapse-in-oil-price-cause-stock-market-crash.php
5. 10 July 2013 – Oil Price Volatility on the Way? http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/oil-price-volatility-on-the-way.php
6. 21 November 2011 – Is Oil Fueling the Rise in Political Partisanship? http://oil-price.net/en/articles/is-oil-fueling-rise-in-political-partisanship.php
7. 20 January 2010 – Oil Caused Recession, Not Wall Street http://oil-price.net/en/articles/oil-caused-recession-not-wallstreet.php
Links to research on electrical activation of the heart
https://elifesciences.org/articles/37610 – scientific paper on how the heart electrically drives the heartbeat
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180827091745.htm – a news article on the heart scientific paper
Cloggie on Tue, 18th Jun 2019 1:03 pm
Merkel trembling in public. Signs of a mild stroke?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9NadV_zwY4
Robert Inget on Tue, 18th Jun 2019 2:09 pm
If Saudi Arabia ‘NEEDS’$60 oil SA will get $60.
By hook or by crook (as they say)
BTW, One NEVER hears of Israel or Saudi Arabia actually sending any of their OWN `troops into battling ‘terrorists’.
On second thought, it’s just as easy to get $80
as $60.
If we need to damage a few more tankers to get there, we will.
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 18th Jun 2019 2:26 pm
Clogg
Enough with you stupid red herrings..
Its obvious you are trying to misdirect attention away from this article..
You are sad..When the collapse hits you deserve to suffer..
Cloggie on Tue, 18th Jun 2019 2:37 pm
Currently watching the BBC Tory leadership debate.
The plot to dump the only fundamental soft Brexit candidate, Rory the Tory, has failed:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7155369/Boris-emerges-bunker-face-Tory-rivals-BBC-debate.html
“’We MUST leave the EU by October 31′: Boris Johnson lays down the law as he FINALLY emerges from his bunker to face Tory rivals in BBC TV debate – after Rory Stewart surges in MP vote”
Cloggie on Tue, 18th Jun 2019 2:52 pm
BoJo advertising his Muslim great-grandfather.
Jeremy Hunt shows off with his three half-Chinese kids.
All are proud of the great contribution Muslims have made.
Gove attacks Corbyn his anti-semitism.
Tories are more globalist than Labour.
Business party and nothing else.
Cloggie on Tue, 18th Jun 2019 3:50 pm
The secret of being a happy nation?
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/worlds-happiest-countries-united-nations-2019/index.html
Being white, protestant, Nordic-blond and small.
1. Finland
2. Denmark
3. Norway
4. Iceland
5. The Netherlands
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_blond_beast
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 18th Jun 2019 6:15 pm
Kremlin Warns of Cyberwar After Report of U.S. Hacking Into Russian Power Grid
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/17/world/europe/russia-us-cyberwar-grid.html
All they need is another false flag..They are a dime a dozen these days..And then ‘out go the lights in Russia’..And chaos will ensue!
HAHAH!
asg70 on Tue, 18th Jun 2019 7:21 pm
[lists his SKILLS as including “Asperger’s”, “Mild Numeracy”, “Vague Literacy” and “Being Kiwi.”]
In other words, he’s a nut. And Kunstler barely gets a word in edgewise while this guy rambled onward with his thick Kiwi accent.
Anonymouse on Tue, 18th Jun 2019 8:59 pm
Are you talking about Davyturd asg70? Was he in the interview too? Because I am fairly certain Davy Dumbass has never claimed to be from New Zealand. Though I suppose it it possible, he has made so many dubious claims about his past, genealogy and his lofty elevated status I suppose it IS possible he claimed to be from NZ too at one point, and It just fell through the cracks.
Cloggie on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 1:18 am
Are you talking about Davyturd asg70? Was he in the interview too? Because I am fairly certain Davy Dumbass has never claimed to be from New Zealand. Though I suppose it it possible, he has made so many dubious claims about his past, genealogy and his lofty elevated status I suppose it IS possible he claimed to be from NZ too at one point, and It just fell through the cracks.
Remember my black bro:
– Davy is a kiwi
– Davy = mobster
– uncle Clogg is an Israeli Jew
– Jesus can return to earth any minute from now
You’re doing fine, inspector Razorsharp, carry on!
Davy on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 6:11 am
“Unprecedented Ice Melt”
https://tinyurl.com/yx9fttbc clean technica
“The bulging zones of high pressure in the Arctic are facilitating the unusual warmth and intensified melting, according to the Washington Post. They are displacing the cold air normally contained in that region into the mid-latitudes over North America, much like a refrigerator door that’s been left open. This has caused the extreme variations in the jet stream recently. “The jet stream this week was one of the craziest I’ve ever seen!” says Jennifer Francis, a leading researcher who studies Arctic changes and mid-latitude weather and a senior scientist at Woods Hole Research Center. She has suggested that conditions in the Arctic may have played a role in the extreme jet stream pattern that spurred the tornado swarm and record flooding in the central US during the last two weeks of May. “We can’t say that the rapid Arctic warming is causing this particularly pattern, but it certainly is consistent with that,” Francis says.”
shortonoil on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 8:01 am
We are at Peak, and the MIC wants to shut off the Iranian oil supply. The Saudi need $90 oil to balance their budget. The Russians did it, and North Korea will soon be back to launching the missiles that they made in their bicycle factory at Hawaii. If Global warming gets any worse, everyone on the East Coast of the US is going to freeze to death; if they don’t starve first. The 922 million acres that the US has under cultivation isn’t going to be able to feed those 700 million Chinese pigs, that they don’t have anymore, because it lost 6 million acres due to arctic warming. If you don’t contribute to the “Save a Polar Bear Fund”, you are racists, capitalist pig yourself. AOC is going to save the world!
What do you think Davy? Does that about do it?
Robert Inget on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 9:33 am
All ya need t know about why oil will go higher.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.7 million barrels per
day, up by 1.8% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline
product supplied averaged 9.7 million barrels per day, up by 2.0% from the same period
last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels per day over the
past four weeks, up by 0.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was
up 5.1% compared with the same four-week period last year.
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php
Cloggie on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 9:45 am
UN sustainability ranking:
https://m.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/mensch/uno-nachhaltigkeitsziele-deutschland-belegt-platz-sechs-im-ranking-a-1273144.html
1-10 European countries
11 UK
…
17 Japan
…
37 USA
…
39 China
Who was the center of the world again between 500 BC and 1945? And will again once the US will walk in the knife called Iran?
short-on-heavy-oil on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 9:46 am
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve) decreased by 3.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 482.4 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 7% above the five year average for this time
of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week and
are about 1% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and
blending components inventories both decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
decreased by 0.6 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average
for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 3.3 million barrels last
week and are about 16% above the five year average for this time of year. Total
commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 0.4 million barrels last week. (30)
Canada just approved a pipeline, (Trans Mountain)
that will handle 750, B p/d. shipped to Asia.
Translated, that’ll be 750,000 B p/d NOT going
South.
IOW’s our diesel, from now on, will be priced in Moscow.
WHEN diesel prices move higher, so will food prices. Sure, you say, I’ll plant a garden.
(billions don’t live in detached houses)
Cloggie on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 10:16 am
OMG, Labour to become Remain party?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7156599/Jeremy-Corbyn-today-Labour-change-Brexit-policy.html
Cloggie on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 10:33 am
Erdogan accuses (US vassal) Egypt of killing Morsi (probably correct):
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7158507/Ousted-Egyptian-leader-Mohamed-Morsi-killed-declares-Turkeys-President-Erdogan.html
Turkey, a very unreliable western ally.
Robert Inget on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 11:39 am
I’ve already predicted a Labour victory in the event of a special election.
If that happens, Trump will doubtless declare the UK a terrorist nation.
Cloggie on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 11:59 am
Sales petrol car companies like Subaru, Mazda and Ford, crashing in Norway:
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/17/norway-updates-subaru-mazda-ford-sales-plummet-hydrogen-car-sales-frozen-tesla-sales-jump/
Electrify or die!
Cloggie on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 12:10 pm
Hydrogen from water vapor in the air and sunlight. Research groups in the Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium are working on it:
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/18/iea-urges-more-use-of-hydrogen-can-it-be-made-from-air-sunshine/
There are efficiency advantages to start electrolysis from vapor rather than water.
Eindhoven/Netherlands:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/05/13/hydrogen-out-of-thin-air/
Zuerich/Switzerland:
https://www.ethz.ch/en/news-and-events/eth-news/news/2019/06/pr-solar-mini-refinery.html
Leuven/Belgium:
https://newatlas.com/hydrogen-panel-record-efficiency/58645/
Cloggie on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 12:30 pm
Rory the Tory is out (against my expectation). Now we get a Brexiteer as UK PM who refuses to rule out categorically no-deal Brexit:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7159435/Rory-Stewart-Tory-leader-battle-Boris-storms-on.html
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 12:39 pm
Clogg
The reason sales in Norway are crashing is because their government is giving the farm away to EV’s..They have put huge taxes on owning or buying an ICE car..And huge fuel taxes on top of that..They also are subsidizing with tax rebates for EV purchases and letting EV owners drive in the bus lanes and have free parking in major cities along free charging..
And despite all of this their oil consumption keeps growing and last year it hit a new record high..
And Norway has only around 6 million people..New York city alone has around 8 million..Its so small and tiny its completely insignificant to even pay attention to..
Cloggie on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 2:06 pm
Denmark is just as an “insignificant country” as Norway. But it was there where the windturbine revolution started, resulting now in 600 GW world-wide.
Won’t be different with Norway, hydrogen and e-vehicles.
And kosher kapital NYC stopped long ago being an example for anything.
Third world city.
Next.
claes on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 3:41 pm
Dear cloggie, I’m all in for it, but what about the EROIE, or an estimated such. At least give us a hint:
“Hydrogen from water vapor in the air and sunlight. Research groups in the Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium are working on it”
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 3:47 pm
‘Terrible Crimes’ Made Putin World’s Richest Person, Financier Testifies
https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-politics/terrible-crimes-made-putin-worlds-richest-person-financier-testifies
Cloggie on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 4:07 pm
“‘Terrible Crimes’ Made Putin World’s Richest Person, Financier Testifies”
Bill Bowder is a stinking, lying kike, who hates Putin, because thanks to Vlad, Mother Russia escaped from the NWO, exactly the reason why you and the rest of your stinking lying tribe, hate Putin too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Browder
Unfortunately your Anglo Goyim (“cattle”) is too weak, too divided to finish the job for you.lol
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2019/01/07/the-good-news-zog-is-dying/
So sad.rofl
Cloggie on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 4:19 pm
“Unfortunately your Anglo Goyim (“cattle”) is too weak, too divided to finish the job for you.lol”
This time you and your despicable water carriers are at the receiving end of history. And boy, does Eurasia have a lot of scores to settle with Anglo-Zionism!
But you confessed you are ready to die. That’s the spirit!
claes on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 4:25 pm
Cloggie, Hydrogene from steam:
“IEA head Fatih Birol believes the cost of producing hydrogen from renewable energy could fall by 30% between now and 2030 but warns there are still technical and regulatory issues to be conquered.”
As we all know from fusion energy,those who are working with this particular energy production, have a tendency to ignore the surrounding energy demand to make the proces work, and only focus on the specific energy exchange in the reactor.
That’s why we need to know which specific process in the hydrogen production that could be 30% more effective by 2030 .
What is the ENERGY RETURN OF ENERGY INVESTED. And that is thee ever returning question in most all cases of our solutions to humanity’s energy problems.
Cloggie on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 4:41 pm
The price of a kWk renewable energy, coming from storage, is more important than EROI.
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/01/12/hydrogen-from-electrolysis-now-cost-competitive/
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/12/11/high-temperature-electrolysis/
The research I refered to above is too early stage.
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 4:46 pm
Clogg
The wind turbine was invented in Scotland in the late 19 century by professor of electrical engineering..Its been around over a century..
Solar and wind are not efficient enough to power industrial civilization..
I have proved this beyond any doubt with numerous science study’s and data..
All you do is point to some tiny country producing a tiny bit of electricity and then make a outrageous prediction it will soon dominate..
You just can’t handle that you are going to die soon when oil production peaks..
Its happened it every civilization..This is just history repeating..
Time to grow up and accept your fate..
Cloggie on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 4:55 pm
“The wind turbine was invented in Scotland in the late 19 century by professor of electrical engineering..Its been around over a century..”
Yes he was a great man, see for yourself:
https://www.ecowatch.com/wind-scotland-1968273448.html
“Wind Generates 100% of Scotland’s Electricity Needs for Entire Day”
Mission accomplished for this great Scottish engineer!
claes on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 5:14 pm
Clogg, I didn’t consider the storage problem, and from that point of view it might actually be a god idea.
Being danish I know about temporary overproduktion in our windmill system and the problems it creates with overshoot energy.
But then again ,hydrogene would be a sideproduct in overshoot situations and not the main energy output, and because of that it can’t be counted on as a major reliable longterm energy resource, but only as a temporary energy resource for powerplants etc.
Cloggie on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 5:18 pm
Good goy!
https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/israel/2019/june/pompeo-us-will-protect-uk-jews-from-labour-party-rsquo-s-jeremy-corbyn-nbsp
“Pompeo: US Will Protect UK Jews from Labour Party’s Jeremy Corbyn”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/09/mike-pompeo-pledges-push-back-life-becomes-difficult-uk-jews/
“Mike Pompeo pledges to ‘push back’ if life becomes difficult for UK Jews under a Corbyn government”
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 5:53 pm
Clogg
One whole day in one of the windiest places on earth?
WOW!
And it only took a century and half to get there!
lol
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 5:59 pm
CLogg
Nobody gets down on their knees more than the right for the Jews!
That is a fact!
claes on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 6:18 pm
clogg. If Hot air was a main source of energy you could to deliver it cause you got a lot of it, and that goes for mob too. And If you both fart at the same time, I think you could the supply the whole world with natural gas for a month. I’m out of here , it stinks.
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 7:11 pm
Trump’s Trade War Is Pushing China Even Deeper Into Debt
Given China’s massive debt levels—equivalent to 254 percent of GDP, among the highest in the world—and the fact that most new corporate lending has been going to the country’s least-profitable state-owned companies, the country is edging closer to debt crisis.
https://www.cfr.org/blog/trumps-trade-war-pushing-china-even-deeper-debt?utm_medium=social_owned&utm_source=tw&utm_content=061919
makati1 on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 7:25 pm
Oil up! Oil down! Oil Peaked! Oil didn’t Peak! Who gives a fuck? Not me!
Meanwhile, in the real world: “Nationwide Surge In “Deaths of Despair”: Americans Are Committing Suicide In Record Numbers”
https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/nationwide-surge-in-deaths-of-despair-americans-are-committing-suicide-in-record-numbers_06192019
“Life expectancy nationwide is down for the third year in a row,…”
The “American Dream” is dead. Long live the New Amerikan Police State Gulag! GO TRUMP!
Anonymouse on Wed, 19th Jun 2019 7:43 pm
Cloggturd you’re only half-correct you half-wit. You are (likely) not an ‘Isreali’ jew, no one really knows or cares about the specifics of that. Just a jew with a strange obsession with amerikans and, lately, brits, for whatever reason. The physical location of the troll-farm you ‘work’ out of,(for free lol) ,hardly matters much either truth be told.
And ‘Uncle CLoggtard?’ Are you serious, or just seriously *ucked in the cranium kosherboy?
A: Yes, yes you are.
That sort of creepy shit might work well with your fellow jews, or Davy even, but how about keeping that weirdo shit to yourself from now on. You truly are as dumb and useless as the sock keeps saying lol. Proof, he can get at least that much correct.
Cloggie on Thu, 20th Jun 2019 1:15 am
Look moussie, latest pictures from no-go area London:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7160127/Pizza-delivery-driver-40s-attacked-seven-strong-youth-gang-east-London-street.html
It’s your bros, the most useless people on the planet, who are turning the city into a hell hole. I was told ALL larger North-American cities are like that.
Ah well, at least these oversees folks won’t plot for the downfall of Germany for a third time. Too busy keeping the darkies from getting out of hand. You could call that an improvement.
So you see moussie, you are good for something after all. Keep up the good work of spreading nihilism and despair around in the Anglo world, so Eurasia doesn’t have to!
Cloggie on Thu, 20th Jun 2019 1:29 am
Spreadsheet Phil, another rare realist in British politics:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7160295/Chancellor-Philip-Hammond-urge-Boris-Johnson-open-option-second-EU-referendum.html
“Chancellor Philip Hammond urges Boris Johnson to consider second EU referendum to break the Brexit deadlock”
The referendum question should be:
– May deal
– no deal
There is a reasonable chance that the May deal would win.
And if not, big shrug. As long as the beginning of the break-up of the West is realized. The right-wingers in continental Europe (including Russia), who understand the true nature of Anglo-Zionism, are Brexiteers as well.
https://www.quora.com/Did-de-Gaulle-dislike-the-Anglo-Saxons-British-and-Americans-more-than-he-disliked-Germans
Yes, de Gaulle did dislike the Anglos… because he perfectly understood the real (kosher) agenda of WW2 and he knew very well that it weren’t the Germans who wanted to conquer the world. Anglo globalist did… until today.
Thank God China is too big now.
Cloggie on Thu, 20th Jun 2019 1:37 am
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7159555/Concerns-pilot-strength-delay-Boeings-737-Max-return.html
“Boeing 737 Max could be delayed from returning to the skies over concerns pilots may not be STRONG enough to physically turn the plane’s emergency crank”
On a positive note, the US will go to Mars in the 2nd term of DJT, honest:
http://fortune.com/2019/01/23/trump-mars-first-term-nasa-trip/
“New White House Aide Memoir Reveals Trump Wanted to Send NASA to Mars During First Term”
Somehow the Anglos are losing it.
peakyeast on Thu, 20th Jun 2019 3:39 am
If RE was to succeed all rich nations would now be 100% RE powered and the progress well on the way in the rest of the world. AND the rich nations would be now working seriously on our very real problems of empty oceans and depleted natural resources – which we are not.
Instead RE is not even showing meaningful growth in most countries on earth and we are depleting everything as fast as we can as usual.
We as a civilisation do not have any time to squander. We are well beyond that point.
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 20th Jun 2019 4:17 am
If we’re headed for regime change in Iran, get ready for a military draft. We’ll need one.
There is ample evidence that American foreign policy elites haven’t learned much from Iraq or Afghanistan; one need only look at the latest headlines from Libya or Syria. But perhaps even our modern Bourbons in Washington can grasp one simple lesson from the post-9/11 campaigns: Wars have an uncanny tendency to take on a life of their own.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/05/31/iran-regime-change-american-troops-military-draft-column/656240002/?fbclid=IwAR0H3uyOAXA-prDMoZmsv9sD4C9ZAY9gNw4rb0x9pi34O0yQ2vv7v4cNoRg
Davy on Thu, 20th Jun 2019 7:56 am
“Propaganda for Renewables: a Critique of a Report by Oil Change International”
https://tinyurl.com/y6dc78rw resilience
“No mention of Energy Saving That’s important because the need for energy saving is a far greater priority for dealing with climate change than the development of renewables. What’s more there is a strong argument that renewables will never be able to 100% power the economy unless developed economies are scaled down considerably, or degrow…Climate change – a stand alone problem or part of wider crisis of the limits to growth? But there is another way of seeing the issues in which climate change is one of a number of problems in a much bigger complex of issues called either “the limits to economic growth”, or “economic overshoot of the carrying capacity of the planet” or “going beyond tipping points in the earth system.”
“Intermittency problems on a daily basis are different from intermittency on a seasonal basis That’s not all. The assumption that 4 hour batteries would be sufficient to balance intermittency is laughable. There are different durations of the intermittency problem of renewable electricity – this is the gap between supply and demand caused by changing wind and solar power while demand for power fluctuates too. There is a need to buffer the gap between supply and demand minute by minute, hour by hour and day by day – but there is a different kind of duration of intermittency which is the gap between supply and demand on a seasonal basis…As I wrote on the Feasta blog, “energy storage is mostly needed between seasons and the amount of storage required would be astronomically expensive to achieve without pumped hydro, the cheapest option. Switching the washing machine on when the wind is blowing is one thing – you cannot wait till summer to switch a heater on in winter when there is no wind and it’s the middle of a cold night.” The trouble is that there are not enough locations where pumped hydro infrastructure can be created.”
“The energy cost of renewable energy has been falling and will be likely below that of fossil fuels by the 2020s, according to Tim Morgan. However these renewables still supply only a tiny fraction of global energy compared to fossil fuels – 3.6% compared to 85%. As already explained they depend on fossil fuels that are becoming more expensive to deliver and, the Energy Cost of Energy for renewals by 2030 would be unlikely to be better than 10.2%. As Morgan explains – “it is unlikely that the Energy Cost of energy of renewables can fall far enough to restore the efficiencies enjoyed in the early stages of fossil fuel abundance…In principle, public service delivery could bring economies of scale and thus reduce the energy involved in providing many household services: public transport, public bathing houses, community kitchens, laundrettes, libraries, internet cafés, public telephone boxes, and home delivery services are just some examples. Combining sufficiency with efficiency measures, German researchers calculated that the typical electricity use of a two-person household could be lowered by 75%, without reverting to drastic lifestyle changes such as washing clothes by hand or generating power with exercise machines. Although this only concerns a part of total energy demand, reducing electricity use in the household also leads to reductions in energy use for manufacturing and transportation…Before the Industrial Revolution, people adjusted their energy demand to a variable energy supply. Our global trade and transport system — which relied on sail boats — operated only when the wind blew, as did the mills that supplied our food and powered many manufacturing processes. The same approach could be very useful today, especially when improved by modern technology. In particular, factories and cargo transportation — such as ships and even trains — could be operated only when renewable energy is available. Adjusting energy demand to supply would make switching to renewable energy much more realistic than it is today.”
Davy on Thu, 20th Jun 2019 7:59 am
PART 2
There is a need for degrowth and an energy sufficiency agenda to complement the development of renewables. Renewables can power our economies but only if our economies are smaller – but are “Green NGOs” like Oil Change International going to challenge the faith that underpins our society – the faith in “economic growth” ? The faith that technology can see us through and that we can have more more more… or are they going to write PR for the renewable energy companies and ignore the bigger picture, which are the limits to growth issues?…There is nothing in their claims for what renewables could do that suggests the need for any form of shrinking economy. On the contrary this piece conveys a strong impression that “business as usual”, but with an energy system powered differently, is all that we need. Green technology – or so called “clean” technology – can save us apparently on its own.
Simon Michaeux, a geologist based in Finland has commented that “Most of the proposals to roll out a new electrical technology on a ubiquitous scale before 2030 [are] unlikely to go as planned”. That’s because the mineral resources needed are not there in sufficient quantities. What’s more, if this is the strategy, then, as Michaux puts it “the question of what mineral deposits are available is likely to be eclipsed by the question of “who gets access to those deposits.”
In conclusion, Oil Change International and the organisations that are endorsing its message are misleading us. Perhaps this is not intentional but they have been co-opted by a vested interest – the renewables lobby. They fail to contextualise the climate crisis in the bigger picture that the global economy must degrow, above all in the rich countries…That’s because if you feel you are involved in a PR battle with the fossil fuel industry it might seem that it is not a good idea to look too closely into the problems. Indeed it feels like handing arguments to the enemy to mention these issues. Of course that is also true of my arguments here. It will not help you make friends among politicians if you make an argument about the inevitability of degrowth because politicians and senior civil servants and journalists are almost without exception true believers in the faith of growth. Unfortunately the necessity for, indeed the inevitability of, degrowth is one of those “inconvenient truths” and you either mention the inconvenient truths or you play down real issues.
Davy on Thu, 20th Jun 2019 8:01 am
I hosted this article to help summarize my REAL Green Deep Adaptation basic premise of managed decline. This author does not even go as far as REAL Green goes with the premise that even degrowth allowing a green transition is likely not going to work out as many assume. REAL Green says degrowth is essential with a combined green energy effort, REAL Geen takes it a step further with embraced simplicity and the humility of ultimate failure that is a collapse process. Gone from this equation is affluence growth and tech performance maintaining anything close to the current status quo but green. This means managed decline because the status quo of complexity is not maintainable with or without green energy and with or without degrowth. This is very important because it acknowledges not only that green energy cannot power our world but also degrowth is not likely to succeed for green energy for economic reasons.
This importance covers tech and systemness of the economy. The tech is not sufficient both in performance and cost. In a different world then we could adapt to tech that is not sufficient with degrowth. The cost of tech could also be managed down with degrowth of doing what is needed by lowering demands on tech and thereby lowering costs. We are demanding too much of tech so it is not going to perform to expectations and this locks in failure on the tech front. Yet, this problem goes deeper because the systemness of the economy means degrowth is not possible and maintain the robustness of technology production. Both tech and degrowth fail us in regards to maintenance of the complexity needed to power anything close to what we have today. The global economy that is bringing us green tech cannot be degrowth sufficiently nor can it be powered by green energy.
This predicament of locked in collapse means only REAL Green managed decline is possible in regards to success. Managed decline means Deep Adaptation. Managed decline means adapting to dysfunctional systems, and economic abandonment that will cause cascading failures because of the degree of population and consumption overshoot. Even a managed decline is deadly but less deadly than the abrupt consequences of irrational policy that continues to invest in the status quo even with green initiatives of alternative energy and efficiency. REAL Green calls this fake green policy. Fake green will invest poorly in regards to what could be invested if failure is acknowledged.
Deep adaptation is likely only possible at the individual local level because the social narrative is corrupted on two levels. First green initiatives are not even fully accepted or attempted by much of the world. The reason for this are more than ideology it is also ability both technical and economic. Some places just cannot employ green technology nor can they afford it. The second issue is green initiatives are not adequate to power society as we know it even with degrowth. This failure covers the performance of the tech and the sustainability of the regeneration of the tech. Fake green aspects of the current social narrative of the status quo are doomed to failure as much as those who do not embrace green as the future. Much of the world does not even contemplate a green transition.
Davy on Thu, 20th Jun 2019 8:03 am
PART 2
Deep Adaptation says begin a power down individually and locally to prepare for the failure ahead. This decline will hopefully be a process that will none the less benefit from green efforts at employing tech and degrowth which will surely happen because there is now a critical mass of efforts to combat climate change. Deep adaptation says these efforts will fail but they will serve Deep Adaptation decline efforts.
You go a step forward from your fake green cousin by accepting a green transition is not possible and will fail so you adapt even deeper. This means collapsing in place but at a managed temp. This is done by staying a step ahead of the collapse process. This is done by using the status quo to leave it. You will horde the best technology and knowledge available to build up something that will be more resilient to collapse. You will employ the status quo to leave it. This also means a hybrid of the old ways with the best of the current ways. It means the wisdom to triage out those aspects of the status quo green and not green that will fail. This means a new lifestyle and meaning more than tech. This is more a dance than an occupation. Your existing occupation is required to dwell in the status quo the dance is involved with adapting your place in the collapse process.
This dance is not for everyone because it is only those who are awakened to the likely certainty of failure and with the ability to adapt. Many are not able to understand nor accept a collapse process and further even if they do they do not have the means to adapt. This is important because if you are not sure about collapse or don’t want to dwell on it you are not a REAL Green candidate. If you do not have the ability both economic and situational then you are not a REAL Green candidate although anyone can adapt to REAL Green attitudes and meaning. This is a call to action of those who can REAL Green because they should and these efforts will benefit all those around them.
REAL Green is for those who can on both levels. The importance of these chosen few is beyond privilege. There will be no transcendence for successful REAL Green efforts as if they will find refuge although temporary refuge and pain management is highly likely. REAL Green efforts are about lifeboats for oneself and those significant others around them and hospice efforts for those immediately near your REAL Green effort. This means you are basically other oriented and on an ascending level the REAL Green effort is based on the power of the planet so you are planet orientated. The planet will support you in your journey to a collapsed world because you are properly scaling. This means strength through the humility that comes with accepting failure but also the strength that comes with proper planetary scaling.
Cloggie on Thu, 20th Jun 2019 1:18 pm
Victor Davis Hanson: “California is now America”s first third world state”
Expect the rest to follow.
https://vdare.com/posts/victor-davis-hanson-warns-california-is-the-third-world
Cloggie on Thu, 20th Jun 2019 3:06 pm
Why I prefer women’s soccer over men’s:
https://www.geenstijl.nl/5148231/wk-vrouwen-live-nederland-canada/
It is not (yet) globalized, hence at least you are watching your own people, rather then some majority African team.
Ned-Can 2-1.
Nederland through to the 1/8 final, against Japan.