Known Unknowns: Unconventional Strategic Shocks in Defense Strategy Development

…There is considerable debate about many aspects of the peak oil theory: whether oil production will follow a symmetrical bell curve or an extended & bumpy plateau, whether the peak will correspond to the halfway point in consumption, and (most contentious of all) when the peak/plateau will occur.

However, there seems to be a growing consensus around the more imminent problem of export decline. Robert Hirsch, Jeffrey Brown and Jeff Rubin have all recently highlighted the fact that global oil exports must necessarily peak and decline within the larger production curve (since one cannot export oil which has not been produced).

Furthermore, these analysts warn that the export decline-curve is likely to be more precipitous than the overall production decline curve.

Peak oil analysts warn of our growing global dependence on petroleum (especially imported oil), our ongoing infrastructure commitments, and the decades required to achieve an orderly transition to post-carbon energy sources.

Should viable alternatives (and their attendant infrastructure) fail to be in place before the eventual oil supply constriction, the tightening supply of liquid fuels would certainly cause price spikes which would rapidly lead to what the British call