Kazakhstan and Global Uranium Supply

Some analysts in the mining industry, like senior editor of Case Energy Opportunities Marin Katusa, believe the political risk in post-Soviet era countries like Kazakhstan is bound to negatively affect the uranium mining sector at least in the short term.

When asked about his outlook for uranium in a recent interview with The Energy Report, Katusa said that “when it comes to the ‘-stan’ countries, short term, it’s thumbs, thumbs, thumbs, down. I couldn’t give more of a thumbs down. Nothing to do with uranium, just the political risk in the -stan countries.”
Nevertheless, with the uranium supply/demand fundamentals leaning more to the demand side the uranium-rich nation of Kazakhstan is key to maintaining the global aboveground uranium supply.

Uranium demand is expected to surpass supply levels as demand for nuclear fuel rises and the impact of the financial crisis on mine development and production capacity becomes much clearer. “The market is relatively balanced and utilities are well covered, but if you go out several years there has got to be some concern about where supply is going to come from,” said George Assie, Cameco’s senior vice-president of marketing and business development.

Further impacts on supply will come in 2013 when the megatons for megawatts program that converts Russian nuclear warheads into reactor fuel comes to an end. By 2015, secondary supply lines from Russian and US uranium stocks, which currently supply 40 per cent of world needs, may fall to as low as 5 per cent.

“The most important thing that is controlling the uranium market are the secondary sources, the uranium that has been mined in the past and diverted mainly for weapons purposes,” said Chaitanyamoy Ganguly, head of IAEA nuclear fuel forecasts. “Maybe by 2015 to 2020, the secondary-source contribution will dramatically fall to 5 to 10 per cent and then you’ll need a lot of uranium from the mines.”

The uranium industry needs uranium-rich countries like Kazakhstan. And many are confident the Kazakh government understands quite well the importance such an industry plays in the future success of their nation.

Uranium Mining News