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Is the Dollar Dying? Why US Currency Is in Danger

Is the Dollar Dying? Why US Currency Is in Danger thumbnail

The U.S dollar is shrinking as a percentage of the world’s currency supply, raising concerns that the greenback is about to see its long run as the world’s premier denomination come to an end.

When compared to its peers, the dollar has drifted to a 15-year low, according to the International Monetary Fund, indicating that more countries are willing to use other currencies to do business.

While the American currency still reigns supreme — it constitutes $3.72 trillion, or 62 percent, of the $6 trillion in allocated foreign exchange holdings by the world’s central banks — the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and what the IMF classifies as “other currencies” such as the Chinese yuan are gaining.

“Generally speaking, it is not believed by the vast majority that the American dollar will be overthrown,” Dick Bove, vice president of equity research at Rafferty Capital Markets, said in a note. “But it will be, and this defrocking may occur in as short a period as five to 10 years.”

Bove uses several metrics to make his point, focusing on the dollar as a percentage of total world money supply.That total has plunged from nearly 90 percent in 1952 to closer to 15 percent now. He also notes that the Chinese yuan, the yen and the euro each have a greater share of that total.

“To the degree that China succeeds in increasing its market share of the world’s currency market, the United States is the loser,” Bove said. “For years, I have been arguing that the move of the Chinese makes perfect sense from their point-of-view but no sense for the Americans.”

For a country with a budget deficit in excess of $1 trillion a year, the consequences of losing standing as the world’s reserve currency would be dire.

 

“If the dollar loses status as the world’s most reliable currency the United States will lose the right to print money to pay its debt. It will be forced to pay this debt,” Bove said. “The ratings agencies are already arguing that the government’s debt may be too highly rated. Plus, the United States Congress, in both its houses, as well as the president are demonstrating a total lack of fiscal credibility.”

Bove is not the only one sounding the reserve currency alarm, though the issue has fallen off the front pages as hopes for a sustained U.S. recovery have taken hold and the stock market has surged to near-record highs.

But the looming battle over budget sequestration in Washington could revive long-standing fears of fiscal stability.

“If (dollars) no longer offer the safety that investors have come to expect, they will not function as the stable collateral required by bank funding markets,” Barry Eichengreen, a professor at the University of California, Berkley, warned in a Financial Times commentary late last year. “They will not be regarded as an attractive form in which to hold international reserves. And they will not be seen as a convenient vehicle for merchandise transactions.”

To be sure, the markets at this point are not acting like the dollar is in severe trouble. The greenback has maintained its position as a general safe haven in times of trouble.

 

“Longer term, of course, countries are going to diversify away from the dollar if they can. There are more favorable investment opportunities out there if you can catch yield,” said Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at DailyFX, a trading firm. “Despite the increase in risk to the U.S. dollar and Treasury, investors still feel safest at home.”

But the Federal Reserve’s successive quantitative easing programs, which have created $3 trillion in new greenbacks, continue to spur worry over the dollar’s status.

“The No. 1 security issue we have as a nation is the preservation of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency,” said Michael Pento, president of Pento Portfolio Strategies. “It’s a thousand times more important than a nuclear bomb being tested by North Korea. It’s a thousand times more important that we keep the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and yet we are doing everything to abuse that status.”

The dollar’s seemingly precarious status is why Pento remains bullish on gold and believes the dollar’s demise as the premier reserve currency could end even sooner than Bove predicts — perhaps by 2015.

“Five to 10 years — that would be an outlier,” he said. “I would say 2015, 2016, that would be the time when it becomes a particularly salient issue. When we’re spending 30 to 50 percent of our revenue on debt service payments, we enter into a bond market crisis. The dollar starts to drop along with bond prices. That would set off the whole thing.”

CNBC



29 Comments on "Is the Dollar Dying? Why US Currency Is in Danger"

  1. Arthur on Wed, 29th May 2013 4:13 pm 

    http://www.infowars.com/kissinger-u-s-and-china-to-collaborate-on-globalist-world-order/

    Maybe the dollar is dying, but the US leadership does not care about the dollar. For them the US is a stepping stone towards world government and have used it as such for more than hundred years. And just like the USSR was an ideal ally for the Roosevelt gang to intentionally strangle Europe, until then the undisputed world leader, now the US elite is trying to court ‘communist’ China in order to encircle an emerging Greater Europe, now that Russia managed to escape from the NWO. Is the US jewish dominated elite going to succeed? The Chinese leadership is smart enough to see through the composition of the US power structure and it’s real intentions: world government with seat in Jeruzalem or Washington. China also knows that the cards of the US are not very good and that China could decide to kill the dollar if pushed in the corner too much, for instance over Iran/Syria. For the moment China (more than Russia) is happy to be in SCO. Israel and it’s satraps US and UK know their time is limited and that they must act and start a war as a flight forward, but must create an excuse first. Hence their desire to stoke the flames of war as much as possible, just like in 1939. The Israeli threat yesterday against Russian supply deliveries to the Syrian government are an example of these provocations. Meanwhile the UK managed to get authorized by the EU to resume weapons deliveries to the mercenaries of the North Atlantic Terror Organisation (NATO) in Syria. Syria/Iran are destined to become the Poland of WW3. Putin is well advised to not directly deliver his S-300 missiles to Damascus but do it overland via the newly US created corridor Teheran-Bagdad-Damascus, to avoid direct confrontation with those who aim for war. Every year that China, Russia and Europe manage to stay out of a world war, the more the US will be pushed towards financial armageddon and insolvency, internal destabilization and balkanization.

  2. J-Gav on Wed, 29th May 2013 5:21 pm 

    Don’t really see an “emerging Greater Europe” Arthur … What I do see is a shrinking interest in sticking with the euro in a number of countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal, Hungary …).

    As for the article, who knows what the crooks are up to? Bernanke isn’t even going to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this year – one of the most important economic planning meetings in the world. What’s up their sleeve? Expanding SDRs? (the Special Drawing Rights care of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland). A basket of currencies, amounting more or less to what Keynes called for after WWII (the Bancor proposal)? In any case, don’t expect it to be the Yuan … We still don’t know how long the dollar’s demise will take but it’s already on the way as more and more countries trade in other currencies.

  3. DC on Wed, 29th May 2013 6:35 pm 

    Hopefully, the next fiscal crisis in the US wont be too long now. The world needs to understand the US petrodollar is on shaky ground Another 2008 style crisis might move the world to finally abandon US dollar demoninated oil sales. If we want to the US destroyed economically, thus ending its threat to the world, stop trading in dollars is the way to go. All those ‘super-carrier’ battlegroups, drone bases and WoMD the US points at the world would be shut down. Rusting away in ports and fields with no money for them. Just like what happened to Russia after the SU collapsed

  4. Arthur on Wed, 29th May 2013 7:17 pm 

    “Don’t really see an “emerging Greater Europe” Arthur … What I do see is a shrinking interest in sticking with the euro in a number of countries (Greece, Spain, Portugal, Hungary …).”

    It is indeed not a done deal, but all trends point towards that direction:

    – common christian heritage
    – centuries old drive of Russia to become ‘European’
    – open formulated policy by Putin in 2012 that Russia is part of Greater Europe’, see link.
    – Putin talking about a common Eurasian market of trillions of euros (not rubel or dollar)
    – the common refusal by France, Germany and Russia to support the US in 2003
    – the rise of China of 1300 million next to Siberia. China at the moment is an uneasy ally of Russia at the moment, because the NWO US at the moment is a bigger threat for Moscow (and China). But once the US will balkanize and the resource situation will intensify, China will bevome a threat
    – Europe is increasingly becoming dependent on Russian oil and gas
    – Russia and Ukraine became members of all sorts of European organizations after the demisr of the USSR
    – Greece and others are *desperate* to stay in the euro. European politicians are firmly committed to the euro, except US satrap p Britain, which is not a member of the euro and is the only country that seriously could leave the EU, but is not allowed by Washington, yet.

    http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2012/06/23/russia-plays-the-european-card/

  5. SOS on Wed, 29th May 2013 9:08 pm 

    The US currency is in danger because of irresponsible and criminal management of US monetary policy.

    Is the IRS after me now, the board admin or just a tap on my phone?

  6. SOS on Wed, 29th May 2013 9:15 pm 

    Pray for our country.

  7. BillT on Thu, 30th May 2013 3:09 am 

    Sorry, Arthur, but EU money is fleeing to the ‘least dirty shirt’, the US. Ditto for Japanese yen.

    The race is on to see who goes over the collapse line first. Many think it will be Japan, but then the EU is close on their heels and money will flow into the US until the first country bites the dust. Then they will all collapse in short order.

    Europe is a group of has-been empires that cannot even support itself. Most of your people rely on your governments to supply everything, even more so than in the US. You are taking in millions of immigrants from the very countries that want to destroy you.

    BTW: I once read an article that named the power centers of the NWO. They are:

    The City of London is the financial center of the world.

    Washington DC is the military center.

    The Vatican is the religious center.

    Think about who controls what in the world today and you can see how this is true.

  8. Arthur on Thu, 30th May 2013 10:14 am 

    “Sorry, Arthur, but EU money is fleeing to the ‘least dirty shirt’, the US. Ditto for Japanese yen.”

    Huh, since when is flowing money from A to B a sign of strength of B?! In reality it means A has excess money. Money is flowing from Europe to Africa, should make you real proud to be in the same league.

    “The race is on to see who goes over the collapse line first.”

    That race does not exist. The only question is when the US dollar will lose reserve currency status and then it is game over for Washington.

    “Then they will all collapse in short order.”

    With that I agree. The financial collapse of the US will initiate the collapse of the entire western system of finance, with the EU and Japan badly hurt, but not so much China and Russia.

    “Europe is a group of has-been empires that cannot even support itself.”

    Insane remark, who is ‘supporting Europe’?.lol. Five western European nations, competing with each other, ruled most of the planet, until in 1939 the Roosevelt-Stalin Alliance came along and ransacked the place. Meanwhile that alliance is long dead and Europe is united under one currency and economic coordination and already has the largest planetary economy, even without the euro enjoying reserve currency status. Nice illustration of that fact from the BBC yesterday:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22690684

    ” Between 1974 and 2009, cumulatively, Europe was responsible for 38% of aviation traffic, Asia/Pacific was responsible for 29%, and North America for 20%. ”

    I do not know about American scales, but in Europe a sack of 480 million always outcompetes a sack of 180 million. I do not expect Europe to run the planet in the future, like in the past five centuries, but we together with Russia will be able to contain the only remaining serious power: China.

    “Most of your people rely on your governments to supply everything, even more so than in the US.”
    You mean to say that Europeans have to pay more taxes? That is true, but that money is not thrown into a pit, but used for services and wealth redistribution, adding to social sstability. No necessitity for OWS in Europe. Compare the European infrastructure with that of the US, like roads, railnetwork and airports, tiptop in Europe. Or quality of living… according to Anglo sources the top 30 cities are all European, except for a few Canadian and Aussie cities. The first ‘American’ city is Honolulu (31). Britain is nowhere (London 38)
    “You are taking in millions of immigrants from the very countries that want to destroy you.”
    Says who? We do that because we are still under the jackboot of jewish-run Washington that imposes the hated multicultural system upon us. But don’t worry about that, Europe has thrown Islam out the hard way three times before (732/Poitiers/France/Martel, 1492/Grenada/Spain, 1683/Vienna/Austria) and we will do that a fourth time, once Washington goes belly-up. Nationalists are gathering strength everywhere in Europe and they are all pro-Russia, not pro-USA. Eastern Europe, including Russia, got rid of their progressives and is now liberated post-NWO territory. Western Europe will follow soon. The left (all very pro-American) will be smashed in Europe because of their treacherous embracement of multiculturalism. Meanwhile comparing the US and EU we have 180/130 versus 480/30 millions Euro’s/third-worlders, so your own argument is backfiring. And since these 30 million invaders are mainly muslims, we have the comparative advantage over the US that we do not have to resort to racism in order to fight them. We can smash them because they are “not kind to women and gays”.lol
    “BTW: I once read an article that named the power centers of the NWO. They are: The City of London is the financial center of the world.”
    After the defeat of Napoleon in 1815, Britain was topdog. They were the first to exploit fossil fuel (coal) and began to set up an industrial society. That gave them an advantage far ahead of the rest of the world, enabling them to set up a real empire (25% of the planet), not just 800 military bases. Combined with a large number of jews (#1 Rothschildt) running finances, London became the real capital of the world. In 1939 American jews (Churchill’s paymasters, ‘the Focus’) succeeded in pushing Britain into war with Germany and as a consequence smash the British empire (and Europe) and incorporate Britain into Washington-run ‘Anglosphere’. I would say that Rothschild-London and Goldman-Sachs-New York balance each other more or less in financial importance. But it does not matter, they are both firmly in the hands of those who aspire the NWO and the destruction of European civilization and the white race in general. But their days are numbered. If Brussels decides to impose a Tobin tax on all financial transactions, London/Wallstreet are out of business for ever. That will happen after the coming financial crash of the West.
    “Washington DC is the military center.”
    Yeah, they have the most impressive hardware allright, but not really the spiritual resources to operate it. They get their a**** kicked even by stone age Somalies, and third worlders like the Vietnamese, Lebanese, Afghanis and Iraqies. The only reason Americans did not leave Bagdad dangling under a chopper, like in Saigon, was because the Chinese and Russians decided not to support the insurgents; letting the US bleed dead financially was more effective in the long run in their eyes and they were correct. But the US can still blow up the entire world if they want to and Hiroshima and Nagasaki (and Dresden) are proof that there are no moral restrictions in doing so, so yes, the US is a ticking time bomb under the rest of the world and that timebomb can only be defused by internal destabilization of the US (OWS from the left and/or Teaparty from the right in the overdrive, or 9/11 truth coming out).
    “The Vatican is the religious center.”
    That is a joke. Why don’t you google – “Biden Praises Jews, Goes Too Far, Accidentally Thrills Anti-Semites” – to see catholic Joe Biden sucking up to his masters to an extent that even worries the New York Magazine. After all “delivering a speech that is likely to be quoted by anti-Semites for years and decades to come”. You got that right NYMag!.lol
    “Think about who controls what in the world today and you can see how this is true.”
    The US/Anglosphere likes to see itself as the unelected policeman of the world and acts accordingly. But they are running out of steam and everybody knows it. The only thing left for the US elite is the flight forward into war, which the rest of the world tries to avoid.

  9. Arthur on Thu, 30th May 2013 1:15 pm 

    “Sorry, Arthur, but EU money is fleeing to the ‘least dirty shirt’, the US. Ditto for Japanese yen.”

    Today a smart guy had his story about the the dollar as reserve currency published on LewRockwell.com:

    http://lewrockwell.com/orig14/laborde4.1.1.html

    This is a far more realistic assessment of the situation than Bill’s fabulations about the ‘least dirty shirt’ and the US is the only political entity in that situation.

    Poor Washington, we all know what happened to the Czar and Hitler when their respective societies lost a major war. And losing the reserve currency is like losing a major war. To ‘discipline’ Saddam or Kadaffi is one thing, but China and Russia something entirely different. From one day to the next the US will have zero buying power on international markets.

  10. mo on Thu, 30th May 2013 1:42 pm 

    Way too radical for me. When ever I hear Jew this and Jew that I have to question on a moral basis who this person is.And I’m German!

  11. Arthur on Thu, 30th May 2013 2:41 pm 

    mo, why don’t you watch this BBC documentary, lifting the veil from US politics:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Cdhtxg8yE4

    The BBC is hyper-political correct, but even they cannot hide their insights. Up to one million people got killed in Iraq, but now these neocons merily march on towards Syria and Iran as if nothing has happened.

  12. Juan Pueblo on Thu, 30th May 2013 4:38 pm 

    I don’t see any other currency replacing the Dollar as a global reserve currency any time soon, despite of all the debt, budget, and fiscal issues in the USA.
    I think the Euro and the Yen are facing even more critical problems(fiscal and budgetary consolidation in EZ and Abenomics in Japan)in the immediate future. The Euro Zone is not viable as it is structured today, and it has to change and adapt fast or get fractured. Japan’s economy will contract in the future because of their lack of domestic energy sources and demographic contraction.
    China’s Yuan is not even tradable, so it is very far away from replacing the Dollar. After the Yuan gets floated, I might reconsider my position regarding it.

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