Is Peak Oil for real?

37 Comments on "Is Peak Oil for real?"

Plantagenet on Mon, 23rd Mar 2015 6:20 pm 



The idea that we should become less dependent on oil is hardly new. The hard part is actually doing it.

The easiest way to reduce dependence on oil would be to establish some kind of tax on carbon or on oil, as the best way to discourage the use of something is to tax it. Unfortunately Obama and our other political leaders lack the wisdom to take this path.

And now, unfortunately, the oil glut has caused oil prices to plummet—-this will result in MORE oil use, not less.

yoananda on Mon, 23rd Mar 2015 6:34 pm 



Unless we create the 3rd industrial revolution by inventing new energy technology (fusion power, nano energy, graphene, whatever…) there is no alternative to oil.

Without oil consequences are pretty easy to deduce : civilisation collapse, and a pretty nasty one (there have been many in the past, none of them was funny).

recycling is NOT a large scale solution, cf entropy.

Humanity will survive, civilisation will not.

We probably are already past peak oil. If we don’t find a solution in the past 15 years (yes, it’s already too late) we will suffer huge population reduction for the next generation.

MSN Fanboy on Mon, 23rd Mar 2015 7:50 pm 



(there have been many in the past, none of them was funny).
,,,,

Well yoananda, I plan to immerse myself in the chaos and have a ‘fun’ time doing it 😛

Peak oil, end of bau, mass starvation…

Gentleman the end of civilisation (this one) is in sight, position yourself accordingly and inherit the earth.

Trust me, sit out the first mass die offs then take your weapon, open your doors and experience your true freedom.

In chaos there is opportunity.

eugene on Mon, 23rd Mar 2015 8:08 pm 



Like countless species in the past, we have over run our resource base. For me, the consequences are obvious. As far as humans surviving, the universe doesn’t care. Animals come and animals go. It’s only our obsession with “we’re different”, hence religion, that blinds us from reality. For me, it’s a done deal. Long ago, I realized an animals greatest strength is also it’s greatest weakness. Ours is our brain.

J on Mon, 23rd Mar 2015 8:11 pm 



Plant. Hos does $45 oil make oil comanies pump more oil? If it isn’t pumped it can’t be consumed either, right? Or am I missing something?

BC on Mon, 23rd Mar 2015 8:21 pm 



Plant, what about a highly progressive net energy tax on energy consumption, i.e., equivalent to a progressive tax on the number of “energy slaves” per capita and per household, and in exchange eliminate taxes on payrolls, corporate income, and savings. But also tax capital gains and rentier pass-through income at the net energy equivalent as a share of consumption.

In exchange for no tax on earned income, profits, and savings, the top 1-10% who receive 50% of income and have 85% of financial wealth would pay a disproportionately higher tax on their high-energy, high-entropy, energy-inefficient lifestyles and consumption while the bottom 80% would receive a proportionately large wage increase (phase the tax changes in over 5 years).

Real estate prices would fall because of properly pricing inefficient net energy consumption/waste and use of space.

We would then have an equivalent carbon tax, have lower housing costs for Millennials, and provide a raise for the working class while discouraging non-productive rentier activity and inefficient use of costlier, lower-quality, ecologically destructive, scarce liquid fossil fuel net energy per capita.

A win-win situation for society. 🙂

This message paid for by BC for CEO of the Anglo-American-Zionist Imperial Corporate-State 2016. BC approves this message. 😀

Ted Wilson on Mon, 23rd Mar 2015 9:46 pm 



Peak Vertically Produced Oil.

A hole is drilled and a pipe is laid and the Oil gushes out because of Earth’s pressure or pumps are used to pull it up.

Today, pipes are drilled horizontaly in shale.
Earthmoving equipments scoop the soil and extract the oil from it using heat.
Biofuels are produced from plants.

If we exclude the above 3 sources of Oil, we have certainly hit the Peak Oil even if we include the
Onshore, Offshore, Polar Oil.

Plantagenet on Mon, 23rd Mar 2015 9:49 pm 



@BC

If the intent is to reduce oil use, a progressive energy tax makes no sense. The whole point of a carbon tax is to make oil and carbon so expensive that people use less of it.

@3

Yes, the oil glut should eventually result in less oil production due to the low price of oil.

Gil on Mon, 23rd Mar 2015 10:04 pm 



We have gone much too far to be able to return to a more sustainable level of oil consumption. Modern civilization is literally built on oil and, to a lesser degree, coal and other non-renewable energy sources. Yes, there remains large quantities of oil-like substances, but they are increasingly expensive and difficult to obtain and process. In effect, it is the Red Queen syndrome. At some point (soon?) the petroleum house of cards will topple and crash. And it won’t be pretty!

Go Speed Racer. on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 12:14 am 



One Armageddon can ruin your whole day.

rockman on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 3:15 am 



We will never run out of oil. The max daily amount of oil produced may be significantly less at some point in time but there will still be production. The price of oil may be beyond the reach of the vast majority of the consumers but there will still be consumption.

But this dynamic has always been true. There are many countries today that have not only reached PO but there are some that have little or no oil production. There are consumers today who cannot afford a significant volume of oil at the current price. There were billions of consumers who could not afford much $45/bbl oil 30 years ago which is why the price of oil fell to under $15/bbl. And when it did there were still billions of consumers who couldn’t afford to acquire much at that price.

Everything said today about the future of oil production could have been (and was)in 1970. And since then the world has produced almost 1 TRILLION bbls of oil. And on every day in thosel last 45 years there has been vast numbers of consumers lacking the affordable oil they desired. Will the world produce another trillion bbls of oil in the next 45 years? Doubtful IMHO. But it will be producing oil in 45 years…and many years beyond that point. And in that future there will be an insufficient amount of affordable oil to satisfy the desires of the consumers. Just as it was in early 2014 when oil was bouncing around $100/bbl as it is today with oil at half that price. And just as it was in 1970 when the inflation adjusted price of oil was half of today’s price.

The price of oil fluctuates. The volume of oil produced fluctuates. The volume of oil consumers can afford fluctuates. This has always been true and IMHO will remain true for the foreseeable future.

Davy on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 7:01 am 



If you are a doomer like me then you understand at some point BAU will not hold. I personally at this point feel the descent needs to be initiated. We should lower oil production which will lower economic activity which will intimate population reductions.

We are at the cusp of a descent we need to end bad attitudes and lifestyles. We need to practice conservation of critical resources somehow in cooperative way. Yet, when this happens there will be no turning back. BAU will be over.

Will this happen? Yes. Unfortunately nature will do it her way with no mitigation and adjustment policies. Enjoy BAU those of you that can. It will not last.

rockman on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 8:56 am 



Davy – “If you are a doomer like me then you understand at some point BAU will not hold”. That’s my point exactly: BAU has already ended for Billions…if they ever had BAU that could be described as beneficial in the first place. I suspect you’re focusing upon folks that have reaped most of the rewards of fossil fuel consumption. That obviously doesn’t include everyone on the planet. The hard times with respect to energy availability as you describe has been around since the first oil well was drilled. There were millions of folks able to carry on BAU when oil was $100/bbl. Just as there were billions of folks who could only dream of reaching that BAU dream when oil was $30/bbl.

IOW describe any potential change in “BAU” and you have to identify the group your talking about. For instance even as oil prices climbed to $100/bbl there were tens of millions of Chinese who were able to grab that BAU “brass ring”. Just as there were probably millions in the EU who felt BAU slipping away as oil hit that same price.

shortonoil on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 8:59 am 



“Is Peak Oil for real?”, is a question that can not be answered unless the terms “Peak”, and “Oil” are somehow defined. Is oil that can be extracted by using a huge amount of debt to pay for its extraction, and that can never be repaid – “oil”? The problem is that the term for the physical substance “oil”, and the purpose for which it is used are often confused. This allows two definitions of Peak to arise; one for the “producer” of oil, and one for the “user” of oil. The producers’ definition of Peak is when they can no longer extract more of some black, stinky substance from the ground that they can sell into the market. The users’ definition is when they can no longer afford to buy an ever increasing amount of oil products.

The problem of differentiating between who’s Peak seems to reappear over and over again. We circumvent the problem by looking at the energy balance of the whole situation; for the producer and the user. The producer by acquiring more debt (that will never be repaid) has not yet reached Peak; the user who can no longer buy an increasing amount of oil products, has. The continual growth of the world’s inventories of unprocessed oil testifies to that fact. Sometime, during the next few months the world will reach “every bodies” Peak. The producer, and the consumer will find that they can no longer continually pump out, and burn more, and more oil.

The question then will be, “has the world really reached Peak”? When everyone has reached Peak, we have reached The Peak!

http://www.thehillsgroup.org

Aire on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 10:34 am 



Rockman – I would agree with you about producing oil in the foreseeable future but you are not considering some things.

First, I would argue the production of food can only decline so far until complete disaster ensues; combine that with other factors like not being able to maintain our nuclear facilities and runaway climate catastrophe – it’s all over! IMO the human race will be more concerned with survival than trying to produce oil when these 3+ crisis happen to a global scale. And you said in “45 years we’ll still be producing and many years passed that”

Thats pretty optimistic and fear that by 45 years we across the globe may or may not have survived the biggest world war for resources. The culprit for this would be the population nowadays being too high. Nature shows us time and time again the higher the climb, the faster a fall is bound to happen.

steve on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 11:18 am 



It seems to me that Rockman has the best grasp on things….everyone is looking for that exciting crash when it might be a slow grinding halt instead. More like kunstler says.

justeunperdant on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 11:25 am 



The oil industry’s struggle to tap into the bitumen carbonates

http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/20/the-oil-industrys-struggle-to-tap-into-the-bitumen-carbonates/

This speak by itself. Human are totally desperated to keep bossiness as usual even it can continue.

rockman on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 11:34 am 



Aire – War? About 100 million died directly/indirectly during WWII and we’re still here. Much of Europe died of the black death and we’re still here. The year 1816 is known as the Year Without a Summer and countless people either froze or starved to death due to volcanic induced climate change (much more severe then we’ve already experienced) or died of starvation due to global crop failures. And we’re still here. And countless people around the world dies of malnutrition and preventable diseases every year while so many die in the US as a result of obesity.

There’s nothing optimistic about predicting we’ll still be producing oil in 45 years IMHO. I’m just talking about producing oil…nothing else. Such as the expense, the environmental damage, the military adventures, etc. I see very little to be optimistic about the general nature of life on the planet for the majority of its inhabitants in the next 5 decades. OTOH there’s a lot of folks today that aren’t living very good lives either.

rockman on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 11:40 am 



just – Not a new idea: Egypt’s Issaran is one of the first heavy oil carbonate reservoir fields in which steam EOR has been used. Discovered in 1981, production did not begin until 1998 because of the particular challenges involved.

Early on, the cold production recovery method was used, which brought total field production to 900 bbl/d. The SAGD method, typically effective in thick and relatively homogenous reservoirs with high vertical permeability, was not considered applicable—the producing zones in Issaran contain impermeable stringers that create breaks in vertical permeability. So, in 2007, CSS with four cycles was implemented in a pilot well, and by mid-year, the field was producing more than 6,000 bbl/d of oil.

marmico on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 11:53 am 



I see very little to be optimistic about the general nature of life on the planet for the majority of its inhabitants in the next 5 decades

Of course not. You are an old fart who will have consumed two hip and two knee replacements while yakking about peak oil but not peak health care.

Fifty years from now, American parents will be taking their kids to Disney to step in virtual elephant shit covered in virtual fire ants while a virtual lion’s breath makes the hair on their necks stand up. The singularity absent 7 Gb/a of petroleum consumption.

BobInget on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 12:56 pm 



OIL and GAS monitor.article..Nov 2014. Depletion rates
(source: IHS, Deloitte & Touche and USGS databases; other industry sources; IEA estimates and analysis)
The supply of the oil from an existing fields decline on an average of 5-7% per year
The largest onshore oil fields decline at a slower rate
Deepwater offshore fields decline 2+ times faster than onshore fields
The latest onshore tight oil fields in North America show annual decline rates greater than 30, 40, & 50% in the first years before the rate asymptotes to a more traditional decline rate
So: onshore tight oil has the highest decline rate, whilst deep water offshore wells rank the second. Large onshore conventional wells have the lowest relative decline rate among the three.

GregT on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 1:21 pm 



“Fifty years from now, American parents will be taking their kids to Disney blah, blah, blah ,blah”

If we stop burning fossil fuels within the next 15 years, the remaining Americans in 50 years time will most likely be foraging for food somewhere in Northern Canada, or in the Arctic. Once the grid goes down, there won’t be a virtual anything. Only harsh reality and survival of the fittest.

shortonoil on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 3:00 pm 



So: onshore tight oil has the highest decline rate, whilst deep water offshore wells rank the second. Large onshore conventional wells have the lowest relative decline rate among the three.

The world’s petroleum producers are now holding $2.5 trillion in debt. That is 84% of their 2014 gross sales. At $50 oil that will be 149% of their annual gross sales. With a 5% profit margin on gross sales it would take them over 30 years to retire their debt. It is not likely that any field now producing will still be doing so in 30 years. When oil production is no longer profitable it stops.

Apneaman on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 3:02 pm 



rockman. you should shut the fuck up about anything other than producing hydro carbons. Your comparisons to the Year Without a Summer are lame. There has not been this much CO2 in the atmosphere for at least 3 million years – possible 15 million. We fast approaching the levels seen in other mass extinction events – except those “natural” emissions took tens of thousands to millions of years to get to dire levels; we have done it in less than 300 years. There is a lag time for the worst of it. Funny how people can compartmentalize the knowledge they have obtained to come up with justifications and rationalizations to carry on with their profiteering at the expense of life on this planet. That’s all your doing with your denial and excuses rockman. Sure you know just as much or more about the industry as anyone here and that gets you lots of brownie points, but when it comes to the consequences of burning that shit you have devoted your entire life to you are a heartless bastard. Fuck you and your lies rockman.

Apneaman on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 3:12 pm 



First They Came for the Sardines…

http://www.dailyimpact.net/2015/03/24/first-they-came-for-the-sardines/#more-2790

indigoboy on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 3:15 pm 



There are folk seriously looking at possible solutions to this energy dilemma. This is one idea developed by a sub group in the British government.
http://www.teqs.net/
It’s not a perfect solution, but it is a good basis for the kind of energy ‘triage’, that we face. The bigger problem is in getting a population to listen to the seriousness of the dilemma? A population that is conditioned to seeing (and basking in), YoY economic growth, is hardly likely to respond well, and vote for politicians that tell us we may have to set up some form of carbon fuel rationing, …and even worse,… a YoY decline in the ration level of fuel over the next 3 or 4 decades?
We are our own worst enemy….. sadly.

Aire on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 3:39 pm 



Rockman – you said “war?” Like it would be a surprise. It’s inevitable. In theory, it’s possible to descend “peacefully” but we all know that isn’t going to happen. Nuclear radiation worldwide is bound to happen after the age of oil. Once a combination of the things I mentioned happen, there’s no more oil production and the END of humans. Sure we could survive a lot but not an array of problems especially radiation contamination combined with other environmental damage. The exponential growth of everything like population and technology are so high that without an energy solution it’ll be impossible to support them and the house of cards will crumble

Apneaman on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 3:45 pm 



Looks like more bullshit to me indigoboy. I have been following all these proposals and climate summits and hopey-changey lectures for a long time and I just see greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, deforestation, ocean acidafication, etc, etc increasing every year. There will never be any serious changes and it is too late now since we have triggered dozens of self reinforcing feed backs that cannot be stopped. Those people are just going through the motions and collecting a pay cheque like everyone else. Most of them are aware that we are fucked.

Applauding Themselves to Death

http://www.monbiot.com/2015/03/10/applauding-themselves-to-death/

Apneaman on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 3:53 pm 



The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse

http://truth-out.org/opinion/item/29664-the-four-horsemen-of-the-apocalypse

Aire on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 3:53 pm 



Essentially what I’m saying is that you didn’t seem to consider the difference of today’s world compared to the world of the past when we humans suffered greatly. Our past near extinction moments we got lucky because we actually hadn’t had the nuclear threat and environmental degradation. Mix this in we a shit load of angry war-prone people and better weaponry and we’ll be lucky to survive ,much less produce super expensive, hard to get oil in 45 + years

Apneaman on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 4:05 pm 



California Spends $1 Billion on Drought to Keep Nestle & Big Oil Happy

“Governor Brown is penalizing Californians for their water use, but is giving a free pass to agriculture and oil corporations that are over-pumping and polluting our State’s dwindling groundwater supply. Agriculture uses 80 percent of California’s water while urban and residential uses account for less than 15 percent.”

http://www.occupycorporatism.com/home/california-spends-1-billion-on-drought-to-keep-nestle-big-oil-happy/

Perk Earl on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 4:05 pm 



“Once the grid goes down, there won’t be a virtual anything.”

Yeah GregT, but that’s the techno-corns fantasy – lol. Take that away and they’ve got nothing.

Steve Challis on Tue, 24th Mar 2015 4:26 pm 



.

Facts_only on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 5:39 pm 



The remaining oil reserves of the world which have already been discovered are more than 1,600 billion barrels (1.6 trillion barrels). The current world consumption is around 90 million barrels per day which equates to 33 Billion barrels consumed per year, and may lead one to believe the remaining discovered reserves are sufficient for 50 years at current consumption rates but its not that linear and simple.
Lets say increase in energy demand will come from population growth, higher population growth rate in under-developed countries, faster per capita energy consumption increase in under-developed countries, and growing energy consumption in huge rapidly developing and industrializing economies like China and India, dwindling resources of fresh water requiring more energy consumptive methods to provide drinking water, and increased water demand for agriculture etc. etc……
The factors which would reduce crude oil demand in future could be global economic depression leading to lower living standards, emergence of economically viable renewable energy resources to replace fossil fuels, increase in mechanical and industrial efficiency (including automobiles) thus requiring less energy per unit/mile travelled/whatever, substitution of oil with gas, hydro-electric power, wind, solar and coal for electricity generation, substitution of gasoline with electric-hybrid cars, large scale conversion from suburban living model to high density innercity living, large scale conversion to mass transit rather than driving, tele-commuting, advances in communication reducing air travel, increased conversion of coal and natural gas to liquid fuels, viable technology developments to replace jet fuel in aviation, punitive carbon taxes on fossil fuels etc. etc.

These are just from the top of my head and its probably just a fraction of all parameters affecting oil demand. Who knows which way the net effect is going to go in the next 50 years but historically oil consumption over the last 20 years alone has gone up by a whopping 33%!!.

Now on the supply side – in Canada alone, the estimated 170 billion barrels recoverable are conservatively assumed to be 1/10th of (hold your breath) 1.6 trillion barrels of oil (bitumen) resources in place. If global oil supply from conventional oil resources went down significantly , oil prices would go up and that would make the development of shales in the US and oil sands in Canada ever more viable to recover perhaps double or more resources that the stated amounts, without even considering advances in resource recovery technologies. So I very much doubt we have seen the peak of production or the peak of consumption yet, and it won’t happen very soon either, but its just my opinion based on facts. Would like to see conversations on this post not dominated by trolls, and based on facts. Like someone said, everyone is entitle to have their own opinion but not their own facts.
The current drop in oil prices will be actually detrimental to renewable energy sources development. I could write more but I am tired of writing such long comment…

Boat on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 6:28 pm 



Facts-only,…Look at how nat gas has totally changed the way we look at the energy picture. It simply is available in large volumes at cheaper prices than coal. I don’t know when the tipping point happens but when oil reaches $120 and higher all kinds of technology will be released only because it will be a cheaper option.

Same with nat gas at some point, solar will be cheaper. Probably because of the infrastructure costs and environmental costs if made to quit flaring.
I look for things like a energy package for homes and cars. Electric car, solar, windows, foam insulation, electric water heaters, lower water toilets.Net zero homes. All for one low low price. Were not that far away.

Davy on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 7:27 pm 



Hey Short, Bob says oil is going to $120. He then says new and amazing technologies will be released into the world.

Davy on Wed, 15th Jul 2015 7:31 pm 



Boat, is a net zero home a home that is so efficient it pays you to live in it. Man, where can I get one? Do you have to be a corn to own one? I bet it uses zero carbon cement too. What a wonderful world we are heading into.