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Page added on July 18, 2013
Is Peak Oil Dead or Just Postponed?
Several months ago, I wondered if the media’s fascination with peak oil, which crested in the mid-2000s, had ended. A big concern of many in the energy/sustainability nexus had found expression in popular culture
and in visuals like this:
But now the zeitgeist has flipped, from crude awakening to crude abundance, thanks to advances in horizontal drilling and fracking. (Yes, this is not an unalloyed good.) The United States, which had for years been fretting about its dependence on foreign oil, is now producing a “tidal wave of oil” of its own, as one analyst recently put it in a CNN report. The story of this turnaround can be told in one graph:
In May a press release on a new International Energy Agency (IEA) report was titled:
Supply Shock from North American Oil Rippling through Global Markets
From a U.S. geopolitical perspective, this is good news; from a global climate perspective, it’s not so good news. Regardless, the above-described trend has given rise to many peak oil is dead pronouncements.
Not so fast huffed Chris Nelder, a respected energy analyst back in March:
Along those lines, I thought he a made number of legitimate points in this interview with Brad Plumer at The Washington Post. Still, the peak oil is dead narrative has been reinforced in recent weeks with news that The Oil Drum, a popular intellectual locus for peak oil conversation on the web, is closing down at the end of the month. The official announcement cites “the high expense of running the [web]site” and a “scarcity of new content,” but it’s hard to imagine this coming to pass if the world wasn’t suddenly swimming in newly tapped fossil fuel reserves. Perhaps the cognitive dissonance became too much to bear.
Personally, I found much value in the high-level discussions on natural resources and energy that were a staple of The Oil Drum, even if the overall slant was one I disagreed with. So I’m sorry to see the site close down. Others are chortling and seeing its demise as further proof of peak oil’s demise.
But what if the peak oil eulogies are premature? After all, as D. Ray Long, one proponent of the theory, argues:
Peak Oil can never really die, because oil is a finite resource and any finite resource peaks in production.
He makes an excellent point in another post when he says:
It’s important not to confuse “Peak Oil” with the “Peak Oil Debate” – a mistake many make. Peak Oil is simply a number, nothing more, nothing less.
This is true. But if the numbers aren’t in your favor right now–and they won’t be in the immediate future–then you can’t sustain a debate on peak oil. That’s why The Oil Drum is closing down and that’s why the media and people in environmental circles are no longer talking about peak oil.
10 Comments on "Is Peak Oil Dead or Just Postponed?"
socrates1fan on Thu, 18th Jul 2013 5:56 pm
Neither, what we see now is only evidence of its presence.
The scramble for these very unconventional sources was predicted as one of the final stages in the plateau prior to decline.
This is a red flag, and one that is going ignored.
Beery on Thu, 18th Jul 2013 6:01 pm
If peak oil were dead or even postponed, oil would be trading at $20/bbl. Peak oil is neither – it’s here.
Arthur on Thu, 18th Jul 2013 6:31 pm
Postponed. We are on a plateau and enjoying the view a little longer. The famous ASPO curve can be thrown in the garbage bin. New curves are required.
J-Gav on Thu, 18th Jul 2013 6:36 pm
Hmmm, I’d never read an article from Discover Magazine … Now I know why. The greater the hype over our present drilling frenzy, the greater the shock will be when it becomes clear that it just isn’t going to cut the mustard.
GregT on Thu, 18th Jul 2013 6:39 pm
I find it interesting that the graph doesn’t go back to 1970, the year that US oil production peaked. I wonder why?
Luc on Thu, 18th Jul 2013 6:50 pm
Hippihaihey, unconvention stuff abundancy, Big Oil is making the champagne corks shooting from the bottle. From champagne CO2 is released, just a bit, from fracking riggs millions of tons methane will escape keeping solar heat 100 times better in the atmospere. Big Oil guys and their hintsmen in quantitive easing profiting Wall Street can join this hot summer party. Next generations will disgust them eventually.
DC on Thu, 18th Jul 2013 11:02 pm
Discover is the national enquirer of science journalism.
BillT on Fri, 19th Jul 2013 1:14 am
No matter how many times they say it, it still is NOT true. We passed peak oil in 2005 as far as NET energy is concerned. Calling moonshine oil to make the numbers is just lying.
James on Fri, 19th Jul 2013 4:26 am
There has been no definitive point defined for how long the new found sources of oil and gas will last. It will probably a flash in the pan type of scenario where it is going really well for the time being, and all of a sudden take a turn for the worst. We still need to get our lifestyles ready to live on less petroleum, and teach our kids how to live without it altogether. It ain’t going to last forever folks.
timson on Fri, 19th Jul 2013 6:39 am
Hilarious. The current rise in production is just a dent in the downwards curve starting in the 70′, oil is still over 100 usd/barrel and everybody is singing the Halleluja. Short memory people have.
Paul Roberts was very precautious in predicting 50 usd/barrel in 2004 in “the end of oil”, something that was laughed away then (I think oil was 15 usd or so).
Now we’re paying double and everybody is happy. Strange….