Industry Outlook – Alternative Energy

Assuming that GDP growth is slightly negative for the next 3 to 4 quarters while the credit markets gradually strengthen, let’s consider the outlook and opportunities for the Alternative Energy industry over the next 6 to 12 months. Many companies engaged in the solar power market offer profitability with strong average long-term annual earnings growth expectations of approximately 40%, stock price valuations significantly discounted from their recent historic highs, and a favorable political environment.

Industry Outlook for Alternative Energy Stocks: Speculative – Bullish

The electric power industry is one of the world’s largest industrial segments. With a global market share of approximately 25%, the United States is the leading producer of electricity, followed by China, Japan and Russia. Total global electricity consumption volume grew at a CAGR [compound annual growth rate] of 3.1% from 1980 to 2006, the most recently available information, according to the Energy Information Administration of the United States Department of Energy.

Meanwhile, over the same period, total global installed electricity capacity increased at a slower rate of only 2.8%. Given industry forecasts of continuous increases in demand, this supply shortfall must be met by additional energy sources. Worldwide demand for electricity is expected to increase from 14.8 trillion kilowatt hours in 2003 to 27.1 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2025, according to the United States Department of Energy’s International Energy Outlook. (Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy)

Investment in electric generation, transmission and distribution to meet growth in demand (excluding investment in fuel supply) is expected to be approximately $11 trillion by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. However, the desire for energy independence, fossil fuel supply constraints, infrastructure limitations and environmental concerns all pose challenges to meeting this growing worldwide demand for electricity.

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