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Page added on March 19, 2014
If 9 Substations Are Destroyed, The Power Grid Could Be Down For 18 Months
What would you do if the Internet or the power grid went down for over a year? Our key infrastructure, including the Internet and the power grid, is far more vulnerable than most people would dare to imagine.
Image: Power Grid (Wiki Commons).
These days, most people simply take for granted that the lights will always be on and that the Internet will always function properly. But what if all that changed someday in the blink of an eye? According to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s latest report, all it would take to plunge the entire nation into darkness for more than a year would be to knock out a transformer manufacturer and just 9 of our 55,000 electrical substations on a really hot summer day. The reality of the matter is that our power grid is in desperate need of updating, and there is very little or no physical security at most of these substations. If terrorists, or saboteurs, or special operations forces wanted to take down our power grid, it would not be very difficult. And as you will read about later in this article, the Internet is extremely vulnerable as well.
When I read the following statement from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s latest report, I was absolutely floored…
“Destroy nine interconnection substations and a transformer manufacturer and the entire United States grid would be down for at least 18 months, probably longer.”
Wow.
What would you do without power for 18 months?
FERC studied what it would take to collapse the entire electrical grid from coast to coast. What they found was quite unsettling…
In its modeling, FERC studied what would happen if various combinations of substations were crippled in the three electrical systems that serve the contiguous U.S. The agency concluded the systems could go darkif as few as nine locations were knocked out: four in the East, three in the West and two in Texas, people with knowledge of the analysis said.
The actual number of locations that would have to be knocked out to spawn a massive blackout would vary depending on available generation resources, energy demand, which is highest on hot days, and other factors, experts said. Because it is difficult to build new transmission routes, existing big substations are becoming more crucial to handling electricity.
So what would life look like without any power for a long period of time? The following list comes from one of my previous articles…
-There would be no heat for your home.
-Water would no longer be pumped into most homes.
-Your computer would not work.
-There would be no Internet.
-Your phones would not work.
-There would be no television.
-There would be no radio.
-ATM machines would be shut down.
-There would be no banking.
-Your debit cards and credit cards would not work.
-Without electricity, gas stations would not be functioning.
-Most people would be unable to do their jobs without electricity and employment would collapse.
-Commerce would be brought to a standstill.
-Hospitals would not be able to function.
-You would quickly start running out of medicine.
-All refrigeration would shut down and frozen foods in our homes and supermarkets would start to go bad.
If you want to get an idea of how quickly society would descend into chaos, just watch the documentary “American Blackout” some time. It will chill you to your bones.
The truth is that we live in an unprecedented time. We have become extremely dependent on technology, and that technology could be stripped away from us in an instant.
Right now, our power grid is exceedingly vulnerable, and all the experts know this, but very little is being done to actually protect it…
“The power grid, built over many decades in a benign environment, now faces a range of threats it was never designed to survive,” said Paul Stockton, a former assistant secretary of defense and president of risk-assessment firm Cloud Peak Analytics. “That’s got to be the focus going forward.”
If a group of agents working for a foreign government or a terrorist organization wanted to bring us to our knees, they could do it.
In fact, there have actually been recent attacks on some of our power stations. Here is just one example…
The Wall Street Journal’s Rebecca Smith reports that a former Federal Energy Regulatory Commission chairman is acknowledging for the first time that a group of snipers shot up a Silicon Valley substation for 19 minutes last year, knocking out 17 transformers before slipping away into the night.
The attack was “the most significant incident of domestic terrorism involving the grid that has ever occurred” in the U.S., Jon Wellinghoff, who was chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission at the time, told Smith.
Have you heard about that attack before now?
Most Americans have not.
But it should have been big news.
At the scene, authorities found “more than 100 fingerprint-free shell casings“, and little piles of rocks “that appeared to have been left by an advance scout to tell the attackers where to get the best shots.”
So what happens someday when the bad guys decide to conduct a coordinated attack against our power grid with heavy weapons?
It could happen.
In addition, as I mentioned at the top of this article, the Internet is extremely vulnerable as well.
For example, did you know that authorities are so freaked out about the security of the Internet that they have given “the keys to the Internet” to a very small group of individuals that meet four times per year?
It’s true. The following is from a recent story posted by the Guardian…
The keyholders have been meeting four times a year, twice on the east coast of the US and twice here on the west, since 2010. Gaining access to their inner sanctum isn’t easy, but last month I was invited along to watch the ceremony and meet some of the keyholders – a select group of security experts from around the world. All have long backgrounds in internet security and work for various international institutions. They were chosen for their geographical spread as well as their experience – no one country is allowed to have too many keyholders. They travel to the ceremony at their own, or their employer’s, expense.
What these men and women control is the system at the heart of the web: the domain name system, or DNS. This is the internet’s version of a telephone directory – a series of registers linking web addresses to a series of numbers, called IP addresses. Without these addresses, you would need to know a long sequence of numbers for every site you wanted to visit. To get to the Guardian, for instance, you’d have to enter “77.91.251.10″ instead of theguardian.com.
If the system that controls those IP addresses gets hijacked or damaged, we would definitely need someone to press the “reset button” on the Internet.
Sadly, the hackers always seem to be several steps ahead of the authorities. In fact, according to one recent report, breaches of U.S. government computer networks go undetected 40 percent of the time…
A new report by Sen. Tom Coburn (R., Okla.) detailswidespread cybersecurity breaches in the federal government, despite billions in spending to secure the nation’s most sensitive information.
The report, released on Tuesday, found thatapproximately 40 percent of breaches go undetected, and highlighted “serious vulnerabilities in the government’s efforts to protect its own civilian computers and networks.”
“In the past few years, we have seen significant breaches in cybersecurity which could affect critical U.S. infrastructure,” the report said. “Data on the nation’s weakest dams, including those which could kill Americans if they failed, were stolen by a malicious intruder. Nuclear plants’ confidential cybersecurity plans have been left unprotected. Blueprints for the technology undergirding the New York Stock Exchange were exposed to hackers.”
Yikes.
And things are not much better when it comes to cybersecurity in the private sector either. According to Symantec, there was a 42 percent increase in cyberattacks against businesses in the United States last year. And according to a recent report in the Telegraph, our major banks are being hit with cyberattacks “every minute of every day”…
Every minute, of every hour, of every day, a major financial institution is under attack.
Threats range from teenagers in their bedrooms engaging in adolescent “hacktivism”, to sophisticated criminal gangs and state-sponsored terrorists attempting everything from extortion to industrial espionage. Though the details of these crimes remain scant, cyber security experts are clear that behind-the-scenes online attacks have already had far reaching consequences for banks and the financial markets.
For much more on all of this, please see my previous article entitled “Big Banks Are Being Hit With Cyberattacks ‘Every Minute Of Every Day’“.
Up until now, attacks on our infrastructure have not caused any significant interruptions in our lifestyles.
But at some point that will change.
Are you prepared for that to happen?
We live at a time when our world is becoming increasingly unstable. In the years ahead it is quite likely that we will see massive economic problems, major natural disasters, serious terror attacks and war. Any one of those could cause substantial disruptions in the way that we live.
At this point, even NASA is warning that “civilization could collapse”…
A new study sponsored by Nasa’s Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution.
Noting that warnings of ‘collapse’ are often seen to be fringe or controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that “the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history.” Cases of severe civilisational disruption due to “precipitous collapse – often lasting centuries – have been quite common.”
So let us hope for the best.
But let us also prepare for the worst.
39 Comments on "If 9 Substations Are Destroyed, The Power Grid Could Be Down For 18 Months"
louis wu on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 7:44 pm
If the US power grid were to actually be knocked out for over a year would we really be able to come back from that?
Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 7:49 pm
I have been arguing for a simplification of the grid by dispersing altE resources, trending back to regionalized grids, and utilizing low power/tech/cost AltE hardware for some time here on this message board. The current system was a response to Wall Street formulating the regulatory environment to allow them to speculate. They in effect were allowed to speculate and buy into the actual national grid hardware. This has cause the grid to be unstable and brittle to a variety of issues many discussed in this article. AltE in its current economic push is attempting to add variability to the grid ineffect causing more instability. Not only that we have the market distorting trends from the “lobby of plenty and human exceptionalism” pushing Natgas strategies at the expense of already built out infrastructure with coal and nuk. We have environmental regulations coming out in the name of mitigating AGW. You combine all these pressures and possible terrorism and or vandalism and or acts of God and you have a recipe for disaster. I am still not reading anybody talking about a financial crisis leading to a sizing up of trade and manufacturing. We don’t ever talk about the long distribution lines for the specialty parts of all kinds for the many and varied hardware in our global and national grid. We can be sure when the light go out and don’t come back on in a reasonably stable amount and time the game is over my friends. Things will not reboot and society will be crashed. It is plain as day to me. So will we change the trend of increasing complexity, increasing power draws, financial speculation, and market distortions? “NO” not until status quo BAU has been turned on its head and people and governments scramble to do battlefield triage.
action on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 7:53 pm
I poop on this article. Mainly because of the stupid cat picture.
Dave Thompson on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 9:06 pm
Without grid tied power the nuclear power plants would quickly have major fukashima like problems, all over the country.
Stephen on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 9:34 pm
If the the grid were to go to down for a long time, it would cause anarchy. I think even the military wouldn’t survive in its current form. It would also halt most supply lines of food, water, etc. They are right that employment and the financial system would die with it as well.
Kenz300 on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 9:39 pm
One more reason to transition to distributed, local, alternative energy sources.
Local energy production by wind and solar can provide local energy and local jobs.
Energy security and economic security will require decentralized power sources.
Stephen on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 9:40 pm
I also wonder what percentage of the population know enough skills to survive in that situation (growing food, hunting, gathering, etc)?
Cloud9 on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 10:06 pm
Back in my day the definitive book on the end of the world as we know it was Alas Babylon. Today the definitive book is One Second After. I think if you read that book it will put you on the terrorist watch list. I picked up my copy at Gatwick airport on my way home and gave it to a refrigerator repairman. A good book should be passed on.
I live in central Florida and as I recall, the book gave a paragraph to Florida, we lost all but one percent of our population. Should the lights go out it would be the epitome of the zombie apocalypse. Can you imagine what Miami would look like after the power had gone off for a week and the denizens came to realize that it was not coming back on?
The sixty thousand survivors of that hell will be lethal beyond imagination. What comes next is the end of civilization.
Papasmurf on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 10:55 pm
You guys are all borderline retarded. I vote for all of you into Thunderdome and watch who makes it out.
GregT on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 11:25 pm
The 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers report card gave US infrastructure an overall grade of D+. With over 3.6 trillion dollars needed in immediate upgrades and repairs.
In their words a ‘D’ rating means;
POOR: AT RISK
The infrastructure is in poor to fair condition and mostly below standard, with many elements approaching the end of their service life. A large portion of the system exhibits significant deterioration. Condition and capacity are of significant concern with strong risk of failure.
http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/a/browser-options/downloads/2013-Report-Card.pdf
The actual report ‘card’ is on page 67.
DC on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 12:08 am
The fear machine@work again. Note, the biggest ‘threats’, are ‘terrorists-saboteurs-and spec-ops, in that order I presume. And how are spec-ops different from the other two anyhow? Maybe they author is aware the uS military plans to attack its own power grid. Anything is possible I guess. However, not once, has the uS power grid been ‘attacked’ by anything of the ‘hypothetical’ threats mentioned. However, the uS grid has been attacked repeatedly by wind, rain, snow, rust, and the general lack of maintenance and upgrades(because those cost you know, money).
For an article full of fear mongering and hyperbole, its funny they never mention stiff winds have caused what, 100’s of millions, billions? of USD in damages. Dollar loses due to ‘terrorists'(and related)? About zero.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 12:47 am
Yea DC, I get so tired of the T word in the US. It pretty well used as the high end risk for about every walk of life in the US. The phenomenal money spent for so little threat and loss of life. Two Chechens shut The whole city of Boston down. I wish I could see that bill. Gun violence kills 30,000/yr in US. How many dead from terrorism last year 3 or so. I agree with DC and Greg T. Mother nature and lack of maintenance are the real issues.
Makati1 on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 2:28 am
louis, if the grid went down for 6 months, it would not come back again. Nor would the factories that depend on electric for their power.
Think about it. Who, not working or being paid would be in the same place in 18 months or even 6 months later? Many would be dead. Many would be living somewhere else that was safer. No-one would be available to bring anything back on line. No-one. When the grid goes down for more than a few weeks, it is game over for the country. No? Think about the total system, not just the grid.
rollin on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 2:32 am
Sure things need to be changed, mostly to adapt to future new sources of electricity. Come on now though, look at reality. The grid has stood 99.9% successfully for many decades. Apparently the grid is not as vulnerable or as fragile as people say.
And as far as terrorists taking down the critical substations, we spend over 100 billion a year on security. They better do their jobs for that kind of money or heads will roll.
The scenarios we think about are not the ones that take us down, It’s the ones we don’t think of or consider too far fetched to consider happening that get us.
Makati1 on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 7:23 am
@rollin, the grid is ancient. Many of the transformers are no longer made anywhere. There is no ‘security’ for the grid. It is a very intricate, complicated system that has many fail points built in. That it works as well as it does is the miracle.
That it will fail and fail spectacularly is inevitable. It will likely be Americans that sabotage it eventually, not foreign terrorists. Think about that for a while and you will see my point.
rollin on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 10:20 am
Mataki1
You are right that the transformers are out of date, but failure of a transformer does not take a whole grid down. In fact the grid has many safety features as well as an amount of redundancy.
I have seen substations explode and it only took out a small local area. I have seen multiple failures of transformers at a large power station, had no effect on the grid.
If you want to believe that anything other than a severe solar storm or major EMP event could take down the whole US grid, that is fine. You can believe in fairies and elves too.
Makati1 on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 12:15 pm
@rollin, can you prove that there isn’t faeries or elves? I cannot.
But then, is it hard to accept that grid failure doesn’t need some huge event to happen? Take down those nine nodes and it is all over for the US. In a few weeks 100+ nuclear reactors and their storage pools would become Fukushimas. In less time, there would be anarchy in the streets. In 6 months, there would be a few million left of the US population, maybe.
Cloud9 on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 12:24 pm
We had some small experience with grid failure during the 04 hurricane season when three storms came right over the top of our house. In some areas the power was out for weeks. What kept everything from coming unglued was the fact that you could see hundreds of utility crews from all over the country working together to get it back on line. What did happen was that the grocery stores could not run their registers and hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of meat and produce spoiled. There was no gasoline and no police because the sheriff’s office had no gasoline. There was no water because the back up generators for the pumps ran out of diesel. The sewer system failed because the pumps no longer worked.
We were personally very fortunate for two reasons: We had a self-contained travel trailer with a propane stove and refrigerator. And we had two generators. I was the only person on my street with ability to produce electricity. I put a generator on a trailer and pulled it to my mother’s house and ran it for four hours and them took it to my in laws and ran it for four hours. I was able to keep their freezers from spoiling.
Fortunately my father in law had played baseball with the guy who owned the local bulk plant. Crisp one hundred dollar bills bought us a fifty five gallon drum full of gasoline. I filled that drum up three times that season.
I discovered that a couple of cold beers can diffuse an argument real quick when people haven’t bathed in four or five days. Tempers get short when people are hot and tired. The good news was that a lot of people were contained because they had no gasoline. Our’s was a rural county and within a few days the national guard began to distribute MREs, tarps, and water. That pretty much kept things together. Still it was evident that things began to fray along the edges. Had the power crews not been visible and had rumors spread that the power was never going to come back on, the situation would have gotten out of hand in short order.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 12:39 pm
The American grid is in better shape than most of the rest of the world from my view and world travels. Everywhere around where I live the infrastructure is top rate. We are not going to have any problems around Missouri.
GregT on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 2:24 pm
The ‘North’ American grid is in extremely vulnerable shape, especially in the Eastern Provinces and States. The thing is Davy, many places in the rest of the world are used to blackouts/ brownouts/ rationing. They are not as dependant on electricity as we are. One more very good reason to install a stand alone electric power generation system. Depending on others to supply basic ‘necessities’, when all of these overly complex systems start to fall apart, is not a sustainable plan.
Davey on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 3:04 pm
Ok Greg, but we are in great shape here in Missouri. I watch these thing and am grid aware by nature. Our markets here have not been bastardized by the Wall Street Smucks yet. Maintence is great. Hopefully they will not make it here. Our grid is dominated by regional coops doing very well
GregT on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 4:22 pm
Hmmm Davy,
According to the EIA; http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=MO#tabs-4
82% of Missouri’s electric power generation is from coal?
Recent reports claim that coal production in the US is about to become increasingly expensive, and problematic?
h ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8ttzkGLC1Y
h ttp://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Peak-Coal-Will-the-US-Run-Out-of-Coal-in-200-Years-Or-20-Years
GregT on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 4:43 pm
Even in BC, where 100% of our electricity is generated from hydro, we are also reaching limits. Much of our infrastructure has been built since the 50s, and is in need of costly upgrades. Our utilities company has installed ‘smart’ meters, rates are already climbing at around 10% per year, and time of use billing is in the works. Four years ago, I attended a BC hydro seminar, and we were told then, that half of all electric power generation by 2020 would need to come from conservation.
Davey on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 5:03 pm
Yea coal will be problamatic but we do have plenty of high sulfur Illinois coal. Great btu coal. Missouri is moving towards wind in the western sections. We have one hghly regarded Nuk plant just upgraded. There is lots of small hydro. Like you say conservation, efficiency, and AltE are the name of the game for the future
vulcanelli on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 5:40 pm
I am interested in forming an energy independent community. To my knowledge there are only 5 or 6 in the world, all in Europe. They own and maintain their own infrastructure and while grid tied they produce all their own power from multiple sources. I am surprised there is no such thing in the U.S. It seems the best approach to mitigate grid dependence and possible grid failure. I am not a promoter so I am wondering how to go about getting this idea out and attracting interested people. Any ideas on how to start something like this?
Northwest Resident on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 6:12 pm
vulcanelli — It is a great idea, but good luck getting past all the regulations and entrenched interests, especially the existing utilities that might be wondering how they make a buck off of energy independent communities. I guess if you could widespread agreement and buy-in from the people living in the local community, that might be a good place to start. ???
ghung on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 6:54 pm
vulcanelli — I suppose you’re talking about micr-grids. It’s being discussed; not much implementation. A couple of articles:
Microgrids May Power Entire U.S. in Future – ASME:
h ttps://www.asme.org/engineering-topics/articles/renewable-energy/microgrids-may-power-entire-future
EBay, Ellison Embrace Microgrids to Peril of Utilities
h ttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-17/ebay-to-ellison-embrace-microgrids-in-threat-to-utilities.html
ACI | US MG1 Microgrids
h ttp://www.wplgroup.com/aci/conferences/us-mg1-microgrids.asp
“Next Generation Microgrids > »
Date: Wednesday 26 February 2014 – Friday 28 February 2014
Location: Hartford, CT
For more information on the facilities being toured, please visit:
h ttp://www.energy.uconn.edu/
h ttp://www.fraunhofer.org/CenterforEnergyInnovation
Topics include:
-Microgrid development for strategic energy objectives such as developing storage capacity, increasing energy efficiency, and using new tools for demand management and prioritizing loads
-Microgrids as a key aspect of large-scale renewable energy development in creating diversity of resources through interconnection with the macro grid
-The increased focus on microgrids in the wake of national disasters to eliminate damaged and disrupted power delivery networks
-New markets and monetization strategies for energy storage, demand response, and other grid services
-Businesses, utilities, investors and policymakers enabling the reshaping of the electric grid – turning it from a one-way conduit for distributing power into a decentralized, intelligent network for improving energy reliability and efficiency across businesses, homes and communities
-Resiliency-focused microgrids’ connection to the utility grid providing new opportunities for system optimization and cost reduction
-Microgrids in remote locations and developing countries focusing on distributed and diverse power generation, designed to remain self-sufficient in order to cater to areas where traditional transmission via electric utility macrogrid is not viable
-Leading-edge technologies such as power electronics, advanced control and communication, and distributed generation from renewable resources, as well as new ways to efficiently store electricity, are making it possible to develop new highly reliable and efficient microgrids
-Microgrid development, in convergence with smart grid technology, serving digital demand management is making it possible to juggle power generated from variable renewable sources like solar and wind, natural gas generation, stored energy and the grid to distribute power and other forms of energy through a local network
-High dividends from microgrid program development as peak demand is reliably managed by way of increases in the renewable component in power generation
-Campus/Institutional microgrids serving educational campuses, residential communities, government buildings, and research organizations leading the market ahead of defense and military, commercial, and others, all of which are projected significant growth within the next decade with a boost from funding by the U.S. Department of Energy
-Providing reliable and secure power and driving major growth through microgrid adoption
You missed the conference, but may be able to source some info from the link.
GregT on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 6:59 pm
Vulcanelli,
A good place to start would be in your own home. Tying a community together, and to the grid, would be a very expensive proposition. If your local building codes would even allow it. Infrastructure would need to be installed on public lands.
ghung on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 7:04 pm
….or you could start building your own micro-grid and stop worrying about what others are or aren’t doing (what I did):
h ttp://i1001.photobucket.com/albums/af140/Ghung/RE%20Stuff/power_center01_zps5579b520.jpg
h ttp://i1001.photobucket.com/albums/af140/Ghung/home_sweet_home4_zps75de043a.jpeg
h ttp://i1001.photobucket.com/albums/af140/Ghung/RE%20Stuff/pvspike01_zpsa8e6c715.jpg
h ttp://i1001.photobucket.com/albums/af140/Ghung/batteries01_zpsfa329364.jpg
J-Gav on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 7:10 pm
Listen to Ghung folks. Local distributed energy, microgrids. People and communities that get into that will weather the upcoming storm(s) better than most, at least as far as keeping the lights on and sanitation ensured, even if it’s no catch-all miracle solution for all the challenges ahead.
Davey on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 7:21 pm
It would help if we could get the likes of JPMorgan out of the energy business. They did sell off their physical commodity business. Until Wall Street is out of the grid sector it will be hard to push micro grids. WS needs large markets to arbitrage and make speculations with complex derrivitives. Most recently they have engaged in criminal manipulation. I am all for this idea of micro grids and residential embrace of low tech/cost/power solar side by side with grid for further resiliance.
rollin on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 8:06 pm
The ASCE, which gives out the infrastructure report card for the US, says the electric grid has adequate capacity through 2020.
vulcanelli on Thu, 20th Mar 2014 9:36 pm
Ghung,
Thanks for those links. I think I will try to contact that guy in norther California. That is the area that I was considering for the project because of the solar/wind component as well as long growing season. I think it is important to tie in agriculture with power generation.
My model is the town of Wilpoldshreid in Germany. An agricultural community of 2600 they financed solar, wind micro hydro and bio fuel themselves with individual investment and short term loans not longer that six years.
I am not a fan individual power generation. The I’ve got mine, good luck to you attitude is to blame for a lot of our problems. Individual power generation is not worth much at a community level because it is not tied to anything. You might have power but your neighbor does not. What good is that? Besides, to run any kind of light industry which most communities require you need serious amperage and infrastructure to give controlled consistent distribution from multiple switchable sources.
I agree that the political climate may not be the best in the U.S. We are not hurting enough here yet. My idea is that if a core group of people got together with a proposal they could shop it around, even out of the country. Find the best geography and amenable government for such a project. To me if successful it could be a showcase for what could be done. Wilpoldshried has many visitors from communities around the world that want to learn how to do this kind of thing.
Makati1 on Fri, 21st Mar 2014 2:22 am
Some believe they are invulnerable to long term power outages. Thousands of people believed that the Titanic was unsinkable, even her captain. The arrogance of humans know no bounds.
GregT on Fri, 21st Mar 2014 6:30 am
Rollin,
“The ASCE, which gives out the infrastructure report card for the US, says the electric grid has adequate capacity through 2020.”
That would be less than 6 years from now. It also states;
“America relies on an aging electrical grid and pipeline distribution systems, some of which originated in the 1880s. Investment in power transmission has increased since 2005, but ongoing permitting issues, weather events, and limited maintenance have contributed to an increasing number of failures and power interruptions.”
PrestonSturges on Fri, 21st Mar 2014 7:23 am
The “national grid” might not recover for a while, but power would get restored unevenly and in a week much of the country would have rationed service.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 21st Mar 2014 10:19 am
Preston said – The “national grid” might not recover for a while, but power would get restored unevenly and in a week much of the country would have rationed service.
I see a grid losing its national identity and turning regional and local by necessity as the energy decent gathers pace. Triage will occur with many areas completely without power and those areas that are subsidized now or are not important nodes of survival for society. We will see whatever is built now to salvage out to something that will work or a “muddle through”. Much of the new grid of the “lobby of plenty and human exceptionalism” will never get built. This is going to happen within 10 years in my play book. This is why building life boats are so important. I disagree with Vulcan in one respect on individual power. I like what he says about micro grids for communities “BUT” they are pricey. If possible too we need individuals still hooked to the grid or micro grid but with a low power, tech, and cost solar system to run the low draw basics. I this solar system here and it works great. Lights are very very important. When things fall apart lights are like having some food and water around.
ghung on Fri, 21st Mar 2014 2:58 pm
@vulcanelli & Davey: Having one or more off-grid systems in a neighborhood, capable of providing a few things that won’t be widely available, may be worth a lot. Our potable water system is standalone (solar with 2400 gallons of storage, spring-fed) and could provide water for a lot of people. Other things like lighting, charging batteries/devices, cooking, refrigeration (food and medicine storage), power tools, air conditioning for the elderly in a heat wave, communications (I have a great all-band shortwave receiver and some ham equipment), etc., can’t be discounted in a crisis. Even the ability to provide a warm shower to folks can go a long way to calming folks down.
Many micro-grids in the third world work this way. Individual households may have a drop for lighting, charging phones, and a radio, while a ‘community center’ has more capacity for other things.
Davey on Fri, 21st Mar 2014 3:28 pm
Excellent recap G!