IEA says the world is not on course for a sustainable energy future

The IEA, the energy watchdog for 26 industrialised countries including Ireland, says that its Energy Technology Perspectives: Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 report, which is published today, is in response to the Group of Eight (G8) leaders at their Gleneagles Summit in July 2005, and to the International Energy Agency’s Energy Ministers, who called for the IEA to develop and advise on alternative scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future.

The IEA says that oil prices at historical highs raise concerns about the long-term balance of supply and demand. CO2 emissions have increased by more than 20% over the last decade. Indeed, if the future is in line with present trends as illustrated by the World Energy Outlook 2005 Reference Scenario, CO2 emissions and oil demand will continue to grow rapidly over the next 25 years. This is after taking account of energy efficiency gains and technological progress that can be expected under existing policies. Extending this outlook beyond 2030 shows that these worrisome trends are likely to get worse.
The in-depth analysis shows how existing and emerging energy technologies can guide the world towards a more secure and sustainable energy future. “But this will require dynamic financial and policy efforts by both the public and the private sector and unprecedented co-operation between developed and developing nations. Selecting the least-cost technology solutions will be crucial”, Mr. Mandil said. For this reason, the IEA scenarios include only technologies that will have an estimated additional cost, when fully commercialised, of less than $25 per tonne of CO2 emission avoided. This is lower than the last twelve months’ average price of CO2 permits under the European Emissions Trading scheme.

“The task is urgent”, Mr Mandil stressed, “we have to act now to accelerate energy efficiency improvements, to deploy the most cost-effective available technologies, and to scale up R&D and demonstration efforts aimed at reducing the costs of advanced renewables, nuclear and CCS technologies. We also have to increase our focus on finding a solution that can ultimately decouple the transport sector from CO2 emissions and petroleum dependency”, Mr. Mandil concluded.

The IEA says that Improving energy efficiency is often the cheapest, fastest and most environmentally friendly way to meet the world’s energy needs. Improved energy efficiency also reduces the need for investing in energy supply. Many energy efficiency measures are already economic and they will pay for themselves over their lifetime through reduced energy costs. But there are still major barriers to overcome. Consumers are often ill-informed. Few are concerned with energy efficiency when buying appliances, homes or cars. Even business management tends to give energy efficiency a low priority in decision making. There are also opportunities for energy efficiency that consumers never see because the manufacturers of refrigerators, televisions or cars do not always take full advantage of the technologies that exist to make their products more energy efficient. A wide range of policy instruments are available, including public information campaigns, non-binding guidelines, labels and targets, public-sector leadership in procurement, binding regulations, standards, and fiscal and other financial incentives.

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