Hurricane Gustav and Energy Infrastructure – Early Open Thread

From meteorologist Chuck Watson:

Both GFDL and HWRF (which will replace GFDL) are showing fairly explosive amplification in the mid Gulf. Even the official forecast is now showing damage to the OCS facilities, and GFDL is showing Katrina-like long term disruption. None of the official tracks are onshore yet, but our in-house runs out to 180 hrs are showing hits to refineries and pipelines, as well as knocking SPR off line for a couple weeks as well. Of course, estimates beyond 72 hours are more “possible scenarios” than real forecasts, and a little wobble one way or the other makes a big difference in damage, but Gustav is starting to get scary.

The Gulf of Mexico represents about 25% of overall US production, or represents 10% of US Oil usage. (*Ed. Note – I believe Nat Gas is about 13-14% of US production)

Using the 6Z 27 Aug GFDL run, we are showing some facilities off line until early December. The total loss is 12% of Gulf oil production between now and the end of the year (126 days). Interestingly, NG isn’t so much of a hit – only a 5% loss of the remainder of the year’s production.

The Oil Drum