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H’s, T’s and E’s – A Peak Oil Guide
This is a post meant for people who follow resource depletion, simplified for the group think as “peak oil.” But you might enjoy knowing more about the three groups now thinking about the way this society will crumble – or transform.
I’m having a problem. I need some help differentiating the types of thinking in the peak oil movement. I know we have names already, “cornucopians” and “hopium–smokers,” and “doomers,” but I think I want an update, offering some subtlety.
Can we make things easier by perhaps declaring whether we “believe” that:
1. Industrial civilization will not entirely or at all survive the 21st Century;
2. That hope and technological innovation will allow a “hot swap” of things like “molten salt reactors, thorium, or fusion” for our petro-society?
3. Or, that nothing can be done and everybody is already dead, and just don’t know it?
Can we start our conversation by admitting the bias with a simple designation? It’s for purely selfish reasons, as I’m exhausted by hopium smokers. And they may be exhausted by non-hopium smokers. So, in fairness to all:
The “H’s”
I am of the belief that all of human history and pre-history are the actual guides to our future. That is, we will experience non-uniform collapse and non-uniform re-formation as tribes, then towns, then perhaps, low-energy, slave-owning small, warring states. Geology, geography and resources play an important role. But “technology” will be too interrupted by resource depletion and the interruption of long-distance ‘assembly lines’ (from Asia and Africa to Europe and the Americas).
Call that “H” for historical perspective.
The “T’s”
If you believe that technology will fix our predicament, you could do the service of making conversation easier by admitting that you’re a “T.” A “T” is a believer in the thought that technology will somehow help us out of the collapse … caused by our reliance on technology. For example, if you find yourself wanting to talk about “thorium reactors” or “molten salt reactors or batteries,” or if you have no doubt that the “solar revolution” will replace our ugly “carbon” society – then you are most certainly a hopeful “T” believer.
The “E’s”
Then some of you are pure “extinctionists” who believe that we’ll not only get rid of excess materialism and large numbers of people – but that we will, in fact, wipe out all people, period – and much life on the planet. For example, some global warming people are extinctionists, more generally than are peak oilers, and you can often feel their internal excitement (“boners of self-righteously arrogant sadness”) at the notion that we’re all going to die – and that we frankly deserve it.
In sum…
We’ve got “H” for people looking to the report card of human history for a guide to probable behavior of groups of people.
We’ve got “T” for people who believe that technology will save us – or some of us, and allow us to “swap” one “paradigm” for another. (Oil, by the way, is not a paradigm, it’s the structural basis for every single damned thing we do – which is why I’m not a “T”).
And finally, the pure, unadulterated doomers, who I’ll affectionally call “E”s for extinctionists.
Play along. It’ll be fun!
54 Comments on "H’s, T’s and E’s – A Peak Oil Guide"
Cloud9 on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 12:33 pm
I tend to subscribe to the long emergency scenario with the full understanding that we could have systemic collapse on any given day. We have a one in eight chance of the grid going down with a solar flair. That is a known unknown with quite a few black swans circling most of us do not even envision. If we are lucky enough to have a metered decent, I am convinced at some point we are going to be drug kicking and screaming back into the 19th century with flat screens and cell phones. We are going to shed quite a lot of our current population. To include me.
Revi on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 1:31 pm
I like the classification system, but I think I fall into all three.
I like history and believe that those who are ignorant (and the rest of us) are doomed to repeat it.
I like solar and other technology, not as a way to save everyone, but to keep the lights on for a little longer.
And I think extinction is a real possibility.
Sissyfuss on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 1:55 pm
Let me sing it;” I gotta be E, I just gotta be E”.
rockman on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 1:59 pm
“…but I think I fall into all three.” Rut-roh…did you go off your meds again, bubba?
Nony on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 2:34 pm
The Peak Oil doom predictions of the mid-2000s have been dramatically repudiated.
*Oil price is at $50, not in the hundreds.
*Nat gas price is in the 3s, not above 10.
*US natgas volume has increased 40%, rather than declining.
*US oil production is up 80% rather than declining.
*World C&C is up to 80 MM bpd (vice 65 of Ace/Campbell predictions). Total liquids are getting close to 100.
*The Oil Drum shut down from terminal embarrassment.
*Matt Savinar is now an astrologist.
*Rupert shot himself to death and Simmons drank/drowned himself to death.
*Stuart Staniford now avoids oil analysis and is underemployed.
*James Hamilton (now) tries to avoid being labeled a peak oiler because of the stigma.
http://www.businesspundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Gas-Prices-Continue-To-Drop-In-Winter-Months.jpg
Davy on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 2:42 pm
Nony, that may be but look around you and ask yourself is this the world you and others were preaching about a few years ago? No, this world is screwed up and you are playing stupid so hey, live and laugh while you can. Shit is moving so quick you are going to be embarrassed by your skid marks.
onlooker on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 2:53 pm
Nony you conflate low energy prices with a healthy Economy and Energy Industry. This is wrong because as is quite clear for anybody to see the Economies of the World are not in good shape or performing well for masses of people. Hence widespread unemployment and underemployment. Hence, an addiction to fiat money and the printing press via excessive debt and borrowing. You and other optimists are stuck in simplistic reasoning without seeing the underlying dynamics and realities. Oil is fast approaching a Rubicon of sorts whereby it will no longer be able to support the Economy and in turn the Economy will no longer be able to support the Oil Industry. You optimists do not bother to inform newbies of the lack of any major oil discoveries for years, of the ever more energy it takes to produce and distribute energy and of the depleted status of some major oil fields including in Saudi Arabia. You also fail to account for this massive debt fiat money bubble that will end as all money printing bubbles end with economic upheaval usually in the form of hyperinflation. Of course because of our place in the Net Energy continuum we will also experience acute deflation. So we will in fact be experiencing the double whammy of Stagflation. Inflation with deflation.
Go Speed Racer on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 6:07 pm
I am in the ‘RP’ category. As oil supplies
dwindle, the Rich people willl
always be able to afford it,
but the Poor people won’t be able to and
they go back to walking and living in mud huts.
An ‘RP’ does not believe that society will
developing any superior technologies like
Thorium or fusion. Instead it will simply be
a game of haves, versus have-nots.
I think the RP category is the correct one.
makati1 on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 6:55 pm
Hmm… and who is going to pump, refine, and transport this oil to “the rich people”? Do you know what expensive oil is going to do to those who are needed to supply gas to the rich? Obviously not. Give it some real thought and come back.
Go Speed Racer on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 8:04 pm
The Rich people own the military. The military
will keep the oil flowing to the 747’s of the elites.
All the formerly middle class can walk along the side of
the road, or live in abandoned monster trucks.
Trump will already be drawing up the
implementation plans. It’s the obvious outcome
when the wellls taper off. That’s why I am an RP
category peak oiler. Not cornucopian,
not hopium smoker, and not a sooner.
Enjoy your Armageddon!
Plug in the popcorn popper!
Go Speed Racer on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 8:05 pm
not a doomer. pile of dogshit iPhone keyboard.
makati1 on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 8:55 pm
GSR, bullshit! The military will dissolve when there is no paycheck. No tax income = no government. Check out the last days of Rome for reference. Their military melted into the countryside when the paycheck stopped. No difference now. Ditto for police, firemen, etc. Gone.
Oil’s days are numbered, and will not last much beyond the collapse. The U$ built an economy that was doomed to fail. And a lifestyle that depends on a lot of cheap, high energy oil to exist. All those ‘burbs’ are going to be rotting hulks infested with vermin eventually as they are not practical in the coming days.
Do you think the rich will even survive the coming civil war? I doubt they will be able to hide for long. The armed poor know who screwed them. The elite will be the first targets along with bankers and government toadies. It happened in 1850s NYC. Learn history if you want to know what is coming.
GregT on Tue, 3rd Jan 2017 10:23 pm
“A “T” is a believer in the thought that technology will somehow help us out of the collapse … caused by our reliance on technology.”
I see what you did there. LOL
Cloggie on Wed, 4th Jan 2017 3:17 am
There is going to be a collapse alright. But it will be financial first and next a clash of civilizations (religion, ethnic/racial).
But the West is not going to run out of energy any time soon.
NJNiceGuy on Wed, 4th Jan 2017 12:13 pm
I am ashamed to say that I am a total “T”.
There is too much real work being done by real people who have stepped away from their social media devices. There are several possible mind-bending technologies.
peakyeast on Wed, 4th Jan 2017 1:02 pm
I am an S-man.
I believe in human stupidity. We will outfuck any (T)ech advantage ASAP – Because that is what (H)istory shows us – and eventually even without human help – the race and most other species will be (E)xterminated.
Joe D on Wed, 4th Jan 2017 8:50 pm
Hey peaky, I am an Absolute-‘S’ man. My growth/decay of ‘S’ is Delta-‘S’. As my ‘S’ passes through time it gets more chaotic. My ‘S’ always obeys the natural laws. No human can overcome my ‘S’. No technology can defy my ‘S’. Even kryptonite can’t stop my ‘S’.
Cloggie on Thu, 5th Jan 2017 3:47 am
T
Cloggie on Thu, 5th Jan 2017 3:48 am
That was probably the shortest yet meaningful comment in the history of this site.lol
mx on Thu, 5th Jan 2017 10:39 am
The RP, rich people, are in good shape as long as Limbaugh and Fox Lies are in place. They’ll start a war against “the blacks”, instead of “the rich”.
mx on Thu, 5th Jan 2017 10:40 am
Just look at Wisconsin, a Failed Republican State, and they still voted Republican. Propaganda Works!
Sissyfuss on Thu, 5th Jan 2017 4:46 pm
Are you saying “kiss my S,” Joe D?
makati1 on Thu, 5th Jan 2017 5:16 pm
mx, I don’t think you understand the situation. The poor know who their enemies are, and it is the wealthy elite. Thank the internet for disseminating the truth about who is killing the middle and lower classes. They know. The elite know too or they would not be trying to militarize the police and have such an intricate spy system in place to keep track of you. Yes, YOU. YOU are a threat to them. You and about 300,000,000 others.
When the riots start, it will be against banksters and big business that screwed the little guy of ANY color or nationality. As it progresses, it will be all against all as starvation and need dictates action. When the bureaucrats are afraid to leave their homes, the government will evaporate and what follows is unknown, but it won’t be nice.
Joe D on Fri, 6th Jan 2017 7:51 pm
No Sissyfuss, ‘S’ is not for “kiss my S,”…LOL.
Formally ‘S’ is the symbol for Entropy, where ‘S’ = K’*ln(omega) and Delta-‘S’ = Integral( delta*Q’/T).
Entropy is my ‘S’.
makati1 on Fri, 6th Jan 2017 8:36 pm
Trying to impress someone Joe? Not working. Degrees mean shit in the world right now and will mean even less in the future. Only survival skills count. Maybe you should give that some thought?
Boat on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 1:20 am
mak,
If degrees mean nothing then why do those high tec companies seem to hire them. Oh right, you don’t have conversations like that in the P’s. And yes mak, celebrate ignorance, might as well, you live it. One of your best repeats. Better to be poor and dumb so when the crash comes you won’t have as far to fall. I would say your well prepped. Lol
PS Why are you so afraid of guns? 5 generation US gun owner and shooter. Dove, quail, pheasants, duck, turkey, deer should be on every kids list. Last round of skeet shooting – 35/40. Those poor kids in the P’s have no idea what a gun sport is. You don’t either apparently.
Davy on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 4:35 am
Welcome Joe D, I enjoy you interjecting some higher math here. OH, don’t mind makati, he is jealous of anyone smarter than he is.
peakyeast on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 5:06 am
@Joe D: “Hey peaky, I am an Absolute-‘S’ man. My growth/decay of ‘S’ is Delta-‘S’. As my ‘S’ passes through time it gets more chaotic. My ‘S’ always obeys the natural laws. No human can overcome my ‘S’. No technology can defy my ‘S’. Even kryptonite can’t stop my ‘S’.”
1. I dont believe in time – I believe in events. The speed of events can change pretty much without boundaries.
2. Entropy cannot always go higher. At some point there must be a “reset” or other even to “rebuild” the “system”.
3. Entropy can go up and down. Otherwise it would never have been there in the first place.
4. What we call natural laws – we have no real idea about because humanity has not figured out the creation of the universe nor the end nor if there are one or many universes nor if it is cyclic or not. The laws can be otherwise in different parts of the universe or at different stages of the evolution of the universe. Look at for example ideas about inflation theory and the nature of the universe.
5. No CURRENT technolocy – I think is what you mean.
peakyeast on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 5:09 am
The speed of events are not subject to time, but a result of influences. Radiation, heat, proximity and so forth.
peakyeast on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 5:16 am
IMO: Time is a faulty simplification.
Davy on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 6:04 am
Human time perception is part illusion. There is something called time and it has a characteristic that science has documented well. Humans distort and corrupt time. We live in the future when that is an imagination. This imagination has value and is useful but humans take it unreasonably further. How many times have we experienced something wonderful only to be in a rush for something else? Maybe if we slowed down we might solve some global problems. Time has a value far in access of what we realize. We learn this once we get old and have less time. Wisdom tells us to value and respect time. Progress is not always better. Efficiency, speed, and performance are used carelessly. We travel only to get somewhere and are bored.
peakyeast on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 8:40 am
@Davy: What scientists does is that they use one type of events that they think is pretty stable compared to other events – and it probably is at our specific location and our specific evolution of the universe – and use that to measure how often other types of event happen.
They call this time, but it is really only events.
Davy on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 8:48 am
Being unoriginal and lazy here is the wiki version
Time is the indefinite continued progress of existence and events that occur in apparently irreversible succession from the past through the present to the future.[1][2][3] Time is a component quantity of various measurements used to sequence events, to compare the duration of events or the intervals between them, and to quantify rates of change of quantities in material reality or in the conscious experience.[4][5][6][7] Time is often referred to as the fourth dimension, along with the three spatial dimensions.[8]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time
and then there is this:
“There is a time to live and a time to die but never to reject the moment.”
― Lao Tzu
peakyeast on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 5:10 pm
@Davy: I would say that is what I said.
Notice:
Indefinite – assumption
Apparently – another assumption
Otherwise the same as I said. Except they forget to mention all the influences that actually determine the correlation of different events.
makati1 on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 6:45 pm
Boat, an engineering or electrical, or math or economics or any degree will mean shit when you are trying to grow your food, keep warm and dry while you wander the countryside, or improve your aim, if you have to shoot back.
SURVIVAL SKILLS will outweigh ANY degree in the future. Only college “educated” fools believe otherwise. $100,000++ for a piece of paper to serve coffee at Starbucks for $8/hr.
I am not afraid of guns. There are not many here in the Ps in the hands of the people. In the U$ there is one, or more, for every man, woman and child. Most Americans are already losing their minds and many more will as things get worse. When it comes to eating, ALL will resort to guns for their survival, or they will chose to just die. No, I am not afraid of guns. The U$ Army taught me how to use many different kinds. I chose to not own any as they only invite trouble. I feel safer living in a country that is not full of armed, uneducated, warped civilians as is the U$.
BTW: Where are they hiring those ‘hi techies’? I know! India, China, Taiwan, South Korea. The U$? Not so much anymore! LMAO
makati1 on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 6:55 pm
Davy, degrees do NOT indicate intelligence. Most successful people never went to college. They had true intelligence, not a faux paper one. College may be needed in the math and medical fields, but not in the other 90% of ‘careers’. Too often in my career, I had to teach newly minted “engineers” how to do their job.
And, yes, I AM more intelligent than some here. It is obvious from their comments. I am also more skilled in the areas that are needed to survive in the future than they are. What is an economics degree worth if there is no economics? Will a psychology degree grow your garden? How about a degree in math? Worthless beyond adding, subtracting, multiplying and dividing.
Survival skills, not paper degrees, are the future.
peakyeast on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 7:03 pm
@Mak: Amazingly it requires a bachelor degree today in Denmark to be a kindergarden pedagogue…. WTF?
makati1 on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 8:11 pm
peaky, I am sure I could find many similar “requirements” in the U$. My daughter wanted to work in a child care (expensive babysitting) facility and needed at least an associates degree in child care to work there.
That was 15 years ago. I can only imagine the current “requirements”. BTW: She now runs her own “child care facility” for her five kids, some of my grand children. It’s called their home, no degree required. ^_^
davy on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 9:24 pm
makati, those who think they are clever are deceived. You are such a person.
makati1 on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 9:45 pm
Look in the mirror Davy. Americans are the ones deceiving themselves. They cannot see reality because they have too much to lose if it is true. Those who do not have, see it every day. They live reality. Americans live in pretend.
makati1 on Sat, 7th Jan 2017 9:50 pm
“Hypernormalisation”
“The term comes from Alexei Yurchak’s 2006 book Everything was Forever, Until it was No More: The Last Soviet Generation. The book argues that over the last 20 years of the Soviet Union, everyone knew the system wasn’t working, but as no one could imagine any alternative, politicians and citizens were resigned to pretending that it was. Eventually this pretending was accepted as normal and the fake reality thus created was accepted as real, an effect which Yurchak termed “hypernormalisation.”
https://www.mises.ca/hypernormalisation/
Describes America today.
GregT on Sun, 8th Jan 2017 1:05 am
“5 generation US gun owner and shooter. Dove, quail, pheasants, duck, turkey, deer should be on every kids list.”
If you were around these parts Boat, I would do everything I could to have those firearms separated from you. Idiots such as yourself should not have access to guns.
Joe D on Sun, 8th Jan 2017 4:08 am
Makati, you may have your opinion of degrees, but education is invaluable. Education tends to provoke a better thought process, you not being an example of that.
Peaky, your ‘belief’ of time is no concern of mine. Time and space are relative. Events are also relative (simultaneity).
The second law of thermodynamics states: (1) Natural processes tend to move toward a state of greater disorder. (2) The entropy of an isolated system never decreases. It either stays constant or increases. (3) The total entropy of a system plus that of its environment increases as a result of any natural process.
To “reset” would defy these laws.
Technology will always increase the entropy of our system, past, current, and future.
Attempt to defy entropy at your own peril.
peakyeast on Sun, 8th Jan 2017 4:37 am
@Joe: It is okay that my belief is of no concern. I can see you do not try to evaluate things yourself, but just copy others opinions instead of questioning everything. That is fine that is what religious people also do. End of discussion with you.
makati1 on Sun, 8th Jan 2017 5:10 am
Joe is obviously an college brainwashed idiot. Has a piece of paper that says he had the money and showed up for class often enough to get it, between hangovers.
The last college prof I knew, had a family and was a child molester. I never knew until the FBI picked him up years later and he made the local news. I felt sorry for his family, not him.
The only multi-millionaire I knew, was a self made man who never went to college. Worked hard and saved. Made good investments in real estate and motels. Had a $12 million dollar home in Paradise Valley, Arizona the last time I visited him, plus that big motel in Hershey, PA and other investments.
Degrees will make good paper to start that wood fire to cook that rat you just caught, Joe. Better hold on to it. LMAO
Joe D on Sun, 8th Jan 2017 11:15 pm
peaky, “copy others opinions”. You’re absurd. The Laws of Nature are not up for debate of your opinion. I am an Atheist, I dislike religion and question everything. “End of discussion”. Good riddance!
mak, you are a Tin Man in OZ.
makati1 on Sun, 8th Jan 2017 11:46 pm
Joe D. You have an overblown impression of your self importance. You are a big nothing in a country of brainwashed nothings. Losers from the get go. America is soon to be a dictatorship/police state, a radioactive dust bowl, or both. I’m glad I am 8,000 miles up wind and off the radar.
peakyeast on Mon, 9th Jan 2017 2:39 am
Joe D: Was entropy higher or lower before the universe was created? Proof please.
If entropy only can go higher – then how did it get low at the start of the known universe?
Now please prove how the universe got created and please explain where all matter and energy came from – and where it ends – if it even can end.
Now please explain to me what was there before “big bang” and why and how that resulted in our universe.
Also do remember to include the anormalities we are observing – i.e. galaxies going towards the center of the big bang and so forth.
And remember: Undeniable scientific proof based on your natural laws. Not belief which amounts to religion.
I look forward to your answer. If you can answer it you will be famous instantly throughout the world.
I think you will not be able to answer it – but you should be given the chance since you are so sure you know everything…
pffft….
Anonymous on Mon, 9th Jan 2017 4:06 am
More like like a 5th generation retard, boat. That is something no one would ever doubt. But they hand out guns to retards in amerika like they hand out medals at the special olympics. You, know everyone’s a winner…
Cloggie on Mon, 9th Jan 2017 5:35 am
Joe D: Was entropy higher or lower before the universe was created? Proof please.
Entropy is an invention you can use on idealized text book systems with pistons and the laws of Boyle and Gay-Lussac:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ideal_gas_law
Applied to the universe, history and evolution, it doesn’t make sense.
Joe makes the beginners mistake of… well in Dutch the term from philosophy of science is called “model-overspanning”; Google translate doesn’t help me here. I would say “model overstretch”, that is trying to use a model for something larger than it was originally designed for (generalization).
Another typical example is to pretend that the entire universe consists of nothing but atoms, as described by the Periodical System (PS), a sophisticated implementation of the atomic world view of Democritus. But you can’t explain life and consciousness from the PS; the PS should be applied to the world of tangible matter only.