How Much Will Gustav and Ike Affect Gas Supplies?

Shortly after Hurricane Ike hit, I wrote an article called Implications of a Ten-Day Refinery Outage. It is a few days later, and we know a little more. The purpose of this article is to give an update on the situation.

Based on what I am seeing now, we are likely to see significant gasoline outages in the next few weeks. These may not be as long-lasting as those with Katrina, but they may temporarily be more severe, at least in some parts of the country. Diesel may or may not be a problem. We are an exporter of diesel, so can theoretically reduce exports if need be. Also distillate (used for diesel) supplies are currently at a more adequate level than are gasoline supplies. Jet fuel stocks seem to be at a relatively adequate level, so shortages may not be a problem.


As one can see from Figure 1, EIA weekly gasoline stocks are diving, on a path to 180 million barrels of gasoline or less, in the next week. Weekly gasoline supplies when Katrina hit in 2005 declined, but not nearly to the extent we are seeing today.

The Oil Drum