How Long Can We Keep Up With Surging Demand?

New supplies of oil and gas are coming on stream on a steady basis, from North Sea oil to Canada’s oil sands and the development of offshore reserves in the Indian Ocean. But demand is rising much faster. The question now is how fast it will draw down existing reserves.

Below at right, statistics show proven oil reserves have risen close to 60 per cent in the 20 years to 2003, with the vast majority of the gain coming from the Middle East. By 2020, however, estimates have total production from that region topping out at 38 million barrels a day, barely enough to meet demand from North America alone. With India and China rapidly becoming huge consumers, the supply-demand equation is going to be stretched.

The developed economies are still seeing a sharp run-up in the amount of oil they consume but the real tilt in the dynamics of the global energy market comes from the rise of new economic powerhouses, especially China. In North America, projections from the Energy Information Administration see consumption rising nearly 40 per cent to 32 million barrels per day between 2001 and 2020. The bigger swing in demand comes from Asia, however, where daily consumption is seen nearly doubling in the same period to 27.6 million barrels.
The Globe and Mail