How close to peak oil are we?

My conclusions at very best

Supply will remain tight and prices high barring a major economic setback

Oil supply will peak in 2011/12 at about 92-94 million barrels/day

There will be [be] supply shortfalls in winter before Peak

Oil supply in international trade may peak earlier than the oil production peak

Aided by CERA’s optimism we are still in denial

There are huge challenges and huge opportunities