Hirsch: The WSJ article on a CERA oil decline study

On January 17, The Wall Street Journal published an article entitled New Fields May Offset Oil Drop, reporting and commenting on a study by CERA entitled,


2.“This study supports a view that there is no impending short-term peak in global oil production.”

Comment: What does short-term mean? The world has been on a liquid fuels production plateau since mid 2004, when viewed in the framework of a 4% fluctuation band, which was independently developed. Because years of data will be required to establish an unambiguous break from the current fluctuating plateau, a clear break trend cannot be quickly identified, whether it be up or down.

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