Here comes the flood

Policymakers must start to view mass migration as a form of adaptation so that the global response to climate-induced migration is one of facilitation rather than neglect.

Two leviathans are about to collide on the world stage of science and politics

Flight for survival

Already, some countries cannot afford to wait for a new climate deal. Nations such as the Maldives now anticipate the loss of their sovereign territory. In November their President-elect, Mohammed Nasheed, announced the islanders’ wish to buy a new homeland as sea level rise threatens to drown the archipelago, most of which lies only 1.5 metres above the surface of the Indian Ocean. Nasheed told the media, “I don’t want Maldivians to end up as environmental refugees in some camp … if the islands are sinking we must find high land some place close by. We should do that before we sink.”

As the longer-term effects of sea level rise and desertification become increasingly apparent and extreme events, such as flooding and droughts, become more frequent and severe, liveable surface area will become restricted. For regions that experience a systematic economic collapse, environmentally induced migration could affect millions and come at a time when points of ‘no return’ have been crossed for critical ecosystem services4. Owing to migrant network connections, environmental degradation may perpetuate existing patterns and drive the movement of people towards traditional destinations. Such migration flows will increasingly originate from resource-stressed environments