Heinberg: Peak Oil And How To See The Bigger Picture

17 Comments on "Heinberg: Peak Oil And How To See The Bigger Picture"

Northwest Resident on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 8:31 pm 



“We simply must balance our demand for energy with our rapidly shrinking resources. By acting now, we can control our future instead of letting the future control us. The most important thing about these proposals is that the alternative may be a national catastrophe. Further delay can affect our strength and our power as a nation. This is the ‘moral equivalent of war’ — except that we will be uniting our efforts to build and not destroy.”

Jimmy Carter — 1977

Jimmy called it. When have we heard the truth about peak oil from an American president since then?

Anybody who listens to this presentation and doesn’t “get” the fact that we are currently experiencing peak oil is beyond help.

“The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.”

“Depletion and decline mean the transition cannot be avoided — our choice is whether to undertake it proactively.”

Feudal fascism seems all too possible, but I vote for “The Green New Deal”.

I think that Heinberg is promoting a post-collapse future that I speculate is in the planning. That is:

1) National governments (of major countries) will (attempt to) maintain order within their borders

2) Fossil fuel usage will dramatically drop, and will be controlled by the government and military

3) Government and military and their propaganda/information machines will be put to use in helping communities organize locally for food production and local economy building

4) The majority of people will return to sustainable farming

The questions is, when do we get started. (tick, tock, tick, tock …)

hculliton on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 10:00 pm 



NW: I know that your question is rhetorical, but the answer is obviously now, now, now! Carter committed the worst sin that a democratically elected leader can make: he was honest about what was going on. I wonder if it’s psychologically possible for any population to effect change to avoid a long-term threat. Perhaps, as with all civilizations before us, we are doomed to allow our own demise with only a few shunned Cassandra’s screaming for us to wake the f@&k up. But the sooner the better. Nice post.

Stilgar Wilcox on Mon, 17th Mar 2014 10:47 pm 



Jimmy Carter — 1977

Jimmy called it. When have we heard the truth about peak oil from an American president since then?

Give credit where credit is due. The decision to spell out the truth must not have been an easy one for Carter? And since then as you mention, no prez touches it simply opting for BAU. It seems very unfortunate that pointing out the truth to people, whether it’s AGW or peak oil or whatever the topic almost always gets a cold reception.

Everything has to be ‘positive’ or it gets rejected. That seems like the height of immaturity. People need to grow up!

Keith_McClary on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 2:49 am 



Stilgar:
“People need to grow up!”

Or evolve. Unfortunately, the timescale for that is much longer than the oil era.

rollin on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 2:53 am 



Must be an old video, Heinberg says a gallon of gas costs $2.

He also predicts “the mother of all recessions”.

He discusses price volatility. Oil has stayed high for a while and some additions of renewables (solar and wind)have been made.

rollin on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 2:55 am 



Agriculture = an enormous energy sink and a great vulnerability.
True words.

GregT on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 2:58 am 



NWR,

5) In order for #3 and #4 to happen, there will need to be a mass exodus from the cities.

Like I’ve been saying for quite some time now: Move away from densely populated areas ASAP. Cities will not be pleasant places to be for basic survival. Soon.

Makati1 on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 3:52 am 



While I agree that we have passed many peaks, I still do not believe we will have an orderly decline, much as I would like it to be so for my grand kid’s sake. What are the chances of a hard core addict slowly decreasing the dose of whatever is killing him/her? Slim to none. Maybe 1 in one million are intelligent enough to see the end before it is too late.

But then, perhaps it is already too late for homo sapiens? That is the big question now as we are in a 40 year time lag as far as the ecology and climate change is concerned. We are experiencing pollution from ~40 years ago and it will be maybe 40 more before we are experiencing today’s pollution. Like a slow poison, we are killing ourselves with BAU. I have a suspicion that our great grand kids, if there are any alive, will curse us for our greed and thoughtlessness.

Student on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 10:05 am 



It’s the young generation that will be the most angry when they find out that the older generation have stolen everything from them – watch out!

forbin on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 10:36 am 



“It’s the young generation that will be the most angry when they find out that the older generation have stolen everything from them”

perhaps , but that young generation doesn’t do politics , got all their Tracey Islands and other stuff for their birthdays and the like , and when pushed will riot not to change the establishment but to steal a new phone or sneakers …..

Seen that already in London.

Once the iphone stops and the shops have no more clothes and shoes – then the young will worry about where the next meal comes from ….

Forbin

Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 11:47 am 



Student said – It’s the young generation that will be the most angry when they find out that the older generation have stolen everything from them – watch out!

Student, what is happened is a self-organizing phenomenon. To point a finger is useless at this point. I don’t think it ever was manageable even back when Carter made is famous declaration on the energy crisis or the limits of growth study on population. The nature of our system and the nature of our population overshoot precludes a manageable solution from a human organization standpoint. We really came to understand AGW too late to manage a transition even if we could have organized one. I don’t think population was ever manageable. Humans have always grown to occupy a space that allows population growth. Procreation is an individual decision. China is one case of control but a rare one and one that has still seen a huge population increase. One I might add they are talking about modifying. We are beyond blame here even with the wealth transfer and economic Ponzi scheme. It too is a natural phenomenon of a growth based system reaching limits. How do you manage a growth based system that hits the limits of growth well, debt is the short term answer. The problem is debt is a house of cards at some point. Our predicament is all of our faults and none of our faults.

Student on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 12:49 pm 



Some further thoughts…Its really hard for me to imagine any sort of orderly civilised decline when global oil production rolls over the top permanently. When a perpetual depression and famine set in the ensuing global chaos and race for remaining resources is going to be unimaginable and will probably only be eventually be managed by permanent martial law and global government. Democracy unfortunately looks like it may be unworkable in future.

GregT on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 3:22 pm 



Student,

Once global oil production ‘rolls over the top’, globalism will end. Permanent martial law, and global government, ditto. People will be much more concerned with their own survival at a local level, like they have been throughout the vast majority of human history.

Democracy always was ‘unworkable’, it just happened to be the best that we could come up with at the time. It too, will pass.

J-Gav on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 3:31 pm 



Rollin’s right, this video wasn’t made yesterday – it’s all of 5 months old. If you need a more recent take on Heinberg’s position, catch Kunstler’s latest podcast from last week.

dolanbaker on Tue, 18th Mar 2014 9:18 pm 



I would say that that video was made either late 2008 or early 2009 based on the fact that he mentioned that the oil price is in undershoot and that Obama is a new president.

Sudhir Jatar on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 4:42 pm 



I recently heard Daniel Yergin at Delhi. He thinks that the concept of peak oil is unviable!

louis wu on Wed, 19th Mar 2014 7:36 pm 



The younger generation will be angry, hungry and bored when decline really sets in, but there will be hungry bears and wolves and plenty of us older folks to fed to them as the new form of entertainment.The revolution won’t be televised but it will be tweeted and facebooked while those still work.