Have We Reached Peak Oil?

Stephen Harvey, the Director of the Oil and Gas Office at EIA, who supervises the Petroleum Division and the Reserves & Production Division kindly accepted to read my degree’s dissertation (How Peak Oil will Affect international Relations[6]) and give his feedbacks. In his email answer (that was not off the record), he declared that:

“There are many compelling arguments regarding the increased difficulty in reaching oil reserves which may well result in a future view of historical production that looks sort of like a bell curve. And, it is quite plausible that the peak of that curve is around now”.
While some people may find this sentence anecdotal, it is a remarkable statement from a top EIA official; an agency which is one of the strongest deniers of Peak Oil, well at least publicly. At this point, one can think of many questions.

What does “quite plausible” mean? Does it mean a 10% chance that we are facing Peak Oil now? Or does it mean a 50% chance? a 90% chance?

Does this statement represent only a personal opinion (from perhaps one of the best informed energy experts) or does it represent a broader shift in the EIA’s view on Peak Oil?

The fact that Mr. Harvey forwarded his email to Stephen Durbin (Director of the Office of Resource Management, EIA) may indicate that this is at least not a private opinion.

Why would the EIA publicly say that Peak Oil is “decades way” while one of its most senior officials argues it may well be happening now?

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