Has oil production peaked?

“We’ve concluded that we’re roughly at peak and the turning point,” said Groppe, founding partner of Groppe, Long & Littell in Houston, an independent firm that analyzes the oil and gas business and forecasts prices.

Groppe, 79, an oil analyst for 50 years, has been right before and other analysts have been wrong. In 1980, for example, his firm predicted a barrel of oil would drop to $15, while the U.S. Department of Energy and major oil companies said it would soar as high as $100.

“There’s a lot of history that indicates how erroneous their long-term forecasts are, all of which makes us more and more relaxed about our work,” Groppe said.

Worldwide discovery of oil peaked in the 1960s, he said. For the last 15 years, the world has consumed two to three times as much oil as it has found.

Last year, the four largest nongovernment oil companies – Chevron, Exxon-Mobil, Shell and BP – reported that their new oil discoveries were not enough to make up for what they had pumped that year.

“Against that background, how can you be optimistic about raising oil production 50 percent in the future?” Groppe asked.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer