Grim global warming prognosis for Western U.S.

Now the scientists can make regional projections about “where people actually live”

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In the United States, the West will be hardest hit, scientists say. Heat waves, droughts and intense hurricanes are likely to increase in the coming decades. Air temperatures in the Southwest, particularly from California to Texas, are projected to rise in the summer about 10 degrees by the end of the century, assuming there is a moderate increase in greenhouse gas emissions. A reduction in emissions might keep the temperature rise to 5 degrees.

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In a warming world, the Southwest will receive less rain, and the Pacific Northwest may get more, although that is less certain, scientists say. And even less clear is what will happen in Northern California, where the unpredictability of El Ninos, ocean winds and currents make forecasting difficult.

Over the next several decades, the snow season is expected to shorten across North America, and the snow cover is expected to contract. Permafrost will thaw to greater depths, the scientists project. And the East Coast will be wetter and cloudier.

On a global scale, increases in the amount of precipitation are likely to occur at high latitudes, while decreases are expected in most subtropical land regions. Scientists believe it’s very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy rain will continue to become more frequent.

San Francisco Chronicle