Greenland thaw among feared climate shifts by 2200

OSLO (Reuters) – A drastic climate shift such as a thaw of Greenland’s ice or death of the Amazon forest is more than 50 percent likely by the year 2200 in cases of strong global warming, according to a survey of experts.

The poll of 52 scientists, looking 100 years beyond most forecasts, also revealed worries that long-term warming would trigger radical changes such as the disintegration of the ice sheet in West Antarctica, raising world sea levels.

Huge changes or “tipping points,” which might also include a slowdown of the warm Gulf Stream current that keeps Europe warm, are often dismissed as highly unlikely or scaremongering.

The survey issued late on Monday found that leading experts, when asked, reckoned there was a one in six chance of triggering at least one tipping point with a moderate temperature rise of between 2 and 4 Celsius (3.6-7.2 Fahrenheit) by 2200 from 2000.

But with a strong rise of between 4 and 8 Celsius by 2200, the chances of surpassing at least one of five tipping points reviewed rose to 56 percent.

Reuters