Global Populations to Accelerate Demands For Fossil Fuels, Renewables

By 2025, the world will add another 1.4 billion people creating an energy hungry workforce of the nearly 700 million new middle class people. China alone represents 350 million with India adding 100 million to the total emerging middle class population. The rapid growth will almost triple worldwide energy demands within the next 15 years.

In order to clearly understand the urgency behind the “peak oil” issue it is useful to examine that despite trillions of dollars in debt, currently the United States still imports two-thirds of its oil at a cost that has reached over $400 billion per year. Much of it is from politically unstable regions including South America, Africa and the Middle East; countries that control 55% of world oil supplies.
Let’s also consider the fact that the majority of oil wells today have reached their “peak production”. Already we find examples, as last year Mexican oil producer Cantarell’s production fell about 9.6% every quarter. In the third-quarter, Cantarell produced less than 1 million barrels daily for the first time. As recently as 2005, the Gulf of Mexico field has been producing more than 2 million barrels per day. This declining production due to aging oil wells adds economic stress resulting in less revenue. This threatened 40% of the Mexican government budget. The implications for the U.S. are potentially significant. Mexico once provided on average 1.2 million barrels of oil per day, making it the third-biggest supplier after Canada Athabasca Oil Sands and Saudi Arabia.

It is relatively straight forward to calculate that from the existing aging oil well data the world petroleum production life cycle by 2011 will have reach “peak oil” with production declining in the following years. Therefore, a steady decline in oil output worldwide will be unable to cost effectively meet the exploding middle class population needs driving up the overall price of energy and commodities.

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