Gas shortages: get ready for more

The long lines and closed pumps seen across the South this week are a warning: inventories are way too low.

…In its most recent Weekly Oil Data Review, Barclays Capital pointed out that the U.S. gasoline inventory has reached its lowest level since August 1967, when demand was a little more than half its current level of 9.3 million barrels a day. At 178.7 million barrels, inventories are 21.6 million barrels below their five-year average.

None of this surprises industry watchers such as Matt Simmons, the chairman of Houston energy industry investment bank Simmons & Co. and chief spokesman for the Peak Oil movement. I recently wrote a profile of Simmons for Fortune (“The prophet of $500 oil”) and I can report that he has been warning about the potential of gasoline shortages in the U.S. for months.


“Our system is so fragile,” he told me recently. “All you need is a tiny change to go from ‘Oh, we’re in fine shape’ to an unmitigated disaster.”

Simmons points out that the gasoline weekly stock reports have been trending sharply downward since last winter (with a brief upturn in the spring), and that even before Gustav and Ike we were in “just in time” supply mode.

Getting back to a safer level of extra capacity isn’t simple, either. Once the refineries get back up and running, they’ll drain the already low crude oil inventories. Unless gasoline demand stays low, Simmons believes, we’ll have a hard time clawing back to stability.

That’s why he worries about a top-up catastrophe that could cripple the trucking industry and disrupt food deliveries.

As he told me the other day: “If we end up having gasoline shortages, the odds are about 90% that Americans will do what we always do: We’ll top up our tanks. And in topping up our tanks, within three or four days we’ll drain the pool dry and then within seven days we’ll run out of food.”

Fortune