Future shock: Asia is running out of gas

Of the 10 emerging and developing countries within the ASEAN bloc, only Indonesia and Malaysia are relatively self-sufficient in crude oil – and that comfort zone will evaporate within two decades, along with most natural-gas supplies.

From the global perspective, the US Department of Energy has calculated that oil demand will grow by 35% between 2004 and 2025 – from 82 million barrels per day to 111 million – largely because of the voracious appetite of newly industrializing countries such as China and India.

Output would need to rise by a similar amount. However, this assumes that the major producers, including Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, will double or even triple their production; few independent analysts now believe this will be possible. A greater likelihood is that crude-oil supplies to Asia will begin to dry up within two decades.

But while the world oil markets may be fickle and manipulative, the alternatives are not so obvious, even when coupled with efficiency drives. Coal is perceived in Asia as being too dirty, while local deposits are usually of poor quality; there is grassroots opposition to costly and invasive hydro-electric schemes, and solar generation lacks the economies of scale that could create a viable market.

This hasn’t stopped a promising spurt of innovation that could lay a basis for renewable sources that can eventually supply a substantial portion of overall energy output, ranging from wave and wind generation to a bewildering array of biofuel applications.

Asia Times