Further Evidence of the Influence of Energy on the U.S. Economy – Part 2

Last week, Dave Murphy (EROI Guy) explored how increasing energy prices during the run up to 2008’s $147 bbl peak affected purchasing power of consumers and subsequently the solvency of the establishment that relied on that purchasing power. He mentions James Hamilton:

Hamilton acknowledges early on in his report that the proportion of income spent on energy is an important determinant of consumer spending patterns. The theory is fairly simple: if energy expenditures rise faster than income, then the share of income for other things besides purchasing energy must decline, such as spending on mortgage payments for a second home in Las Vegas. In other words, rapid, large increases in energy prices may curtail consumption enough to trigger larger financial problems

I will show an even greater connection between energy prices, interest rates, and the financial sector, based in large part on a review of minutes of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) from the end of 2002 to 2007. It appears the Fed