Forecasters Converging On 100 Million B/D

While predictions by Total Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie and others that world oil production is facing a limit of 100 million barrels per day or less have received a lot of attention lately, new long-term energy forecasts from major oil companies and government organizations seem to be quietly converging with that stark assessment. While the latest mainstream energy forecasts don’t predict a peak or plateau, they do see little more than 100 million b/d of conventional oil output by 2030 — the end of the forecast period.

Both Exxon Mobil’s new long-term outlook and the latest World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA) project conventional oil production of 105 million-106 million b/d against total liquids supply of 116 million b/d. According to the recent US National Petroleum Council (NPC) study, Facing the Hard Truths about Energy, the average of all the forecasts gathered from international oil companies pointed to an even lower global liquids supply of 107 million b/d by 2030, implying conventional oil of less than 100 million b/d (PIW Dec.10,p1). The pattern in these annual projections has been for gradual reductions in total supply figures in recent years, even at much higher prices, despite signs of unexpectedly durable oil demand from emerging markets.

Energy Intel