Forecaster Warns 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Rival 2005

As the winter heating season winds to a close, the natural gas industry is now looking towards the summer cooling season and the Atlantic hurricane season for indicators on the direction of natural gas prices. Special attention is being paid to the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, which forecasters expect to be overly active. Focus on the hurricane season is even greater as Gulf of Mexico oil and gas producers continue to pick up the pieces six months after Hurricane Katrina’s devastation.

As of Feb. 22 (the most recent update from the Minerals Management Service), shut-in natural gas production from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita stood at 1.504 Bcf/d, which is equivalent to 15.04% of the daily gas production in the Gulf. Since Aug. 26, 2005, the cumulative shut-in gas production from the storms totals 652.629 Bcf, which is equivalent to 17.88% of the Gulf’s 3.65 Tcf of yearly gas production.

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season produced record numbers of named tropical storms (27), hurricanes (15), and Category-5 hurricanes (three), with Hurricane Emily likely to be upgraded as the fourth, according to Weather 2000. “These off-the-charts Tropical frequencies have set an anticlimactic benchmark, but also underscore the latest active multi-decadal cycle which the Atlantic Basin is in the midst of, and warrants awareness, caution and preparation,” the New York-based forecasting service said.

Looking at the 2006 Atlantic season, Weather 2000 said its research, along with atmospheric and oceanographic parameters, are pointing towards a lot of activity. The company said it would not be surprised to see 15-22 named storms, eight-13 hurricanes and four-seven intense hurricanes.

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