Flash Point: EROEI?

This will be a short post to capture an idea that is intriguing but requires some thought. Posted on Zero Hedge by Dr. Tim Morgan of Tullet Prebon, The End Of An Era examines certain trends leading us to economic disaster. He writes:

This report explains that this acceleration towards ever-greater immediacy has blinded society to a series of fundamental economic trends which, if not anticipated and tackled well in advance, could have devastating effects. The relentless shortening of media, social and political horizons has resulted in the establishment of self-destructive economic patterns which now threaten to undermine economic viability. We date the acceleration in short-termism to the early 1980s.

The emphasized phrase is an idea we have often used in conversation – nice to see it validated. Another ide we are familiar with:

there has been a relentless shift to immediate consumption as part of something that has been called a “cult of self-worship”. The pursuit of instant gratification has resulted in the accumulation of debt on an unprecedented scale.

He identifies four underlying trends:

1. the madness of crowds
2. the globalisation disaster
3. an exercise in self-delusion
4. the growth dynamo winds down

It is the fourth point that was new to us and grabbed our attention:

In modern societies, manufacturing, services, minerals, food and even water are functions of the availability of energy. The critical equation here is not the absolute quantity of energy available but, rather, the difference between energy extracted and energy consumed in the extraction process. This is measured by the mathematical equation EROEI (energy return on energy invested).

The path we are on has this characteristic:

Research suggests that the global average EROEI, having fallen from about 40:1 in 1990 to 17:1 in 2010, may decline to just 11:1 by 2020, at which point energy will be about 50% more expensive, in real terms, than it is today, a metric which will carry through directly into the cost of almost everything else – including food.

This is not a future that standard monetary or fiscal policy will be able to touch. It is based on the real state of energy production for which there are no easy solutions if solutions at all, and certainly not in time-frames that society has become adapted to as mentioned in the beginning of this post. As we mentionned, this post is a teaser, a place holder while we dwell upon this at length.

The Poog

6 Comments on "Flash Point: EROEI?"

BillT on Sun, 3rd Feb 2013 1:25 pm 



This is what we have been saying for years. EROEI is the real measure of civilization as we know it. That is why 95 million barrels of biofuels is NOT equal to 95 million barrels of light, sweet crude oil. Not even close.

J-Gav on Sun, 3rd Feb 2013 4:28 pm 



It’s true that media, social and political horizons have shortened. What the article doesn’t say though is that this entails a shortening of our civilizational horizon as well. There are some hard bio-physical limits which just can’t be trumped.

DC on Sun, 3rd Feb 2013 9:55 pm 



It almost seems as if EROEI is dropping by ~ 1% on average per year, with minor variations up or down. If that is the case, and it could well be, then time really is running out….

rollin on Mon, 4th Feb 2013 2:19 am 



I think Charles Hall determined that you need between 15:1 and 11:1 to run an advanced civilization. If the EROEI falls to 11:1 by 2020, western civiization will be in a shambles by 2017. Of course it already is crumbling at 17:1.
So if we are going to do anything it needs to be done in five years or less.

Dmyers on Mon, 4th Feb 2013 4:40 am 



The EROEI concept has a serious fundamental problem. It does not penetrate thick heads. It also seems to pass through the ears and the mass in between without leaving any residue of neural activity.

As a general topic, this is just too abstract. With particulars, we can pin it down to an extent, but to speak as BillT does of EROEI as the measure of civilization, that throws an average mind into confusion. Energy what? How can you invest energy? It’s more invisible than digital currency in the recycling bin of my banker’s desk top computer.

A major problem with pinning this down to a common understanding is the word energy, itself. Over the years, this word has taken on various shades of meaning. I remember when a typical nineteen year old could use the word, “energy”, a dozen times in a conversation, with possibly three different meanings. It has a personal dimension. I don’t have any energy. Where did all my energy go? You can buy it in a drink or extract it from a special little rectangle on the wall.

In short, a word with so many usages does not a good term for a concept make.

BillT on Mon, 4th Feb 2013 8:49 am 



Dmeyers, energy is what makes all things possible. The civilization we are used to was built on cheap plentiful concentrated energy in the form of oil. When that goes away, ans it already is shrinking, then the civilization we have known will also be gone. Where? Back to prehydrocarbon days. Those so called ‘alternate/renewables’ ALL rely on and need oil to exist. When they wear out the age of renewable/alternates will also be over.