Fast rise of scorching days predicted

Assessing and predicting the frequency and strength of extreme climate events are critical to determining the consequences of future climate change. Motivated by western Europe’s exceptionally hot summers of 2003 and 2006, Sterl et al. use an ensemble of climate models to investigate changes in extreme values of climate variables. Using a statistical method for determining return intervals for extreme events, the authors find that the recurrence time for extremely high temperatures will not only increase as average temperatures rise, but will also increase at a faster rate than rising average temperatures. After correcting for model biases, the authors also find that by the end of this century, extreme temperatures will far exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in southern Europe and the U.S. Midwest and will even reach 50 degrees C (122 degrees F) in northeastern India and most of Australia. Because any point on land within roughly 40 degrees of the equator will have a 10 percent chance of exceeding 48 degrees C (118 degrees F) every decade by the end of this century, the authors urge that the risk to populations be taken very seriously.

AGU journal highlights — Aug. 12, 2008/EurekAlert