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Page added on November 11, 2013
Faith and trust in the system is collapsing
I began reading Dimitry Orlov’s recent publication, The Five Stages of Collapse: Survivors’ Toolkit, last week and it has got me thinking about his thesis with respect to the revelations around the U.S. surveillance system being used globally by the-powers-that-be (both corporate and political), in combination with the ongoing exposure of manipulation of various markets and interest rates.
Orlov argues that the five stages of collapse
Serve as mental milestones…[and each breaches] a specific level of trust or faith in the status quo. Although each stage causes physical, observable changes in the environment, these can be gradual, while the mental flip is generally quite swift.
Here are his five stages:
- Financial collapse where faith in risk assessment and financial guarantees is lost (think Cyprus).
- Commercial collapse that witnesses a breakdown in trade and widespread shortages of necessities (think Greece).
- Political collapse through a loss of political class relevance and legitimacy (think current events almost everywhere).
- Social collapse in which social institutions that could provide resources fail (coming to a locality near you?).
- Cultural collapse that is exhibited by the disbanding of families into individuals competing for scarce resources (hopefully we never witness this).
The Five Stages of Collapse: Survivors’ Toolkit by Dmitry Orlov, New Society, 288pp., $19.95.
Stage one: Financial collapse
Orlov states “all that is required for financial collapse is for certain assumptions about the future to be invalidated, for finance is not a physical system but a mental construct.” It would appear that we are well into this first stage as more and more people are questioning not only the stability of the financial system, but its very structure and long-term viability.
The subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 has left lingering concerns about the fragility of the global economic system. Add to this the ongoing manipulation of global interest rates and markets that has been exposed (see this). This manipulation has little to do with improving a system for the majority but has a lot to do with enriching the elite minority and transferring wealth to them from the majority (see this and this). Add to this the ever-increasing liquidity injections (i.e. money printing) by the world’s central banks (see this) and the theft of allocated funds by unprosecuted criminals (see this) and we have a recipe for increased loss of trust throughout the global financial system. In fact, there are many who have already lost complete faith in the system and recommend disinvesting one’s savings from these corrupt institutions and investing in hard assets (i.e. gold, silver, agricultural land, art, memorabilia, farming supplies, wine, etc.) that maintain or increase their value over time relative to the government-mandated fiat currency which loses its worth due to central bank malfeasance-inflation (see this and this).
Stage two: Commercial collapse
A breakdown in trade is beginning as more and more sovereign nations impose tariffs and/or devalue their currency in a vicious circle: currency devaluation leads to increase in exports for the “devaluer” but a decrease for competitors-it’s a zero sum game after all); the competitor either devalues their currency in kind (see this and this) or imposes tariffs on the nation engaging in purposeful devaluation (see this).
In Greece, a peripheral nation within the Eurozone and a test case for extreme austerity, this type of collapse has occurred in regions, resulting in shortages of necessities such as pharmaceuticals, energy, and food (see this and this).
Stage three: Political collapse
I believe we have begun down this path with evermore revelations of government malfeasance. The latest salvo in this ongoing struggle between what we are told by our governments and what is the on-the-ground reality has been launched: the National Security Agency’s decade-plus invasion of privacy through a global surveillance regime. It’s bad enough that the elite have lied about this for more than a decade; what’s worse is their targeting of whistle blowers as traitors as this discourages exposing immoral or illegal acts perpetrated by our elite.
We are moving ever closer to Orwell’s vision of a totalitarian world as expressed in his book 1984. One commentator has argued that 1984 was not designed to be an instruction manual but a warning, and others have been warning about this type of intrusion for some years.
There are numerous examples of political malfeasance and corruption being uncovered recently. For example:
- The mayor of Toronto videotaped participating with others smoking crack cocaine;
- The U.S. National Security Agency’s creation of a global, electronic surveillance state-apparently even used to eavesdrop on other nations’ leaders at meetings;
- The mayor of Montreal arrested for corruption;
- Numerous former presidents/prime ministers/etc. being arrested/charged for various crimes from torture to murder (see this, this, this, and this)
- The current and former premier of Ontario being linked to decisions cancelling gas plants to save political seats during an election.
Using Orlov’s framework to interpret these concerns, arguments, perspectives, and facts, it would appear that trust and faith in the various systems are collapsing at an incredible rate. Faith in the financial system is crumbling; commercial enterprises, especially multinational corporations, are losing support and trade barriers are beginning to be erected; and, finally, all that is needed for political collapse is for more citizens to come to the realization that the status quo is no longer working for the benefit of all but for the benefit of the elite. When the masses finally come to better understand the corruption and malfeasance that percolates throughout the political world, collapse of the political class will occur.
However, even given the various signs that the system is on the verge of collapse, it is important to realize that no one can predict when this might occur. It could be tomorrow, next week, next year, or next decade…one never knows what event, minor or major, could spin us in an unexpected direction. Learn how to protect yourself and your family financially, socially, and practically (i.e., survival skills) to be in a better position to adapt to the coming changes.
This article was originally published on the Olduvai Blog: Musings on the Coming Collapse.
– Steve Bull, Transition Voice
9 Comments on "Faith and trust in the system is collapsing"
action on Mon, 11th Nov 2013 1:02 pm
He added a sixth stage of collapse that in my opinion has become the most disturbing stage caused by the lack of change despite knowing the consequences – environmental collapse.
J-Gav on Mon, 11th Nov 2013 1:25 pm
As bad as things look, it would be even more disturbing if faith and trust in the present system WEREN’T collapsing. The fact that it is at least indicates that a growing number of people realize the importance of becoming less dependent on that system.
paulo1 on Mon, 11th Nov 2013 1:38 pm
As a Canadian, I take exception to this article forgetting about (ex) Prime Minister Mulrooney (Reagan/Thatcher wannabe) winding up with $200,000 in a New York bank safety deposit box in 1994. He only paid partial taxes on this when he became aware he was being investigated by the RCMP. In a later deal with the tax man, he paid just a portion of what was owed…approx 50%. Apparently, he was being investigated for receiving a $300,000 kickback for an Airbus deal. At the time I was a documented wage earner supporting a family. After Mulrooney’s little foray into the Tony Soprano world, whenever I got a chance to do a cash job for someone I did it. I once renovated a basement for a piano and a woodstove. Hey, it wasn’t in the same league as our PM, but he did lead by example.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/brian-mulroney-the-payments-and-the-taxman/article1085673/?page=all
Of course we had Gordon Campbell being arrested in Hawaii for DUI. (Our ex BC Premier). He kept his job and lowered the drunk driver limits back home. Go figure. But that doesn’t mean I drink and drive! Everyone knows there are two laws, one for those with money and connections and one for everyone else!
Corruption is nothing new. Look at all the televangilists caught with their _____ in the cookie jars. Clinton? Presidential elections?
Are you a cynic or a realist? I have always told my kids the only things that really matter in life are family and friends. Events have proven this is true for as long as I remember.
Nothing has changed except the scope and sequence of it all.
Paulo
ghung on Mon, 11th Nov 2013 2:54 pm
@Paulo – I’ve done quite a bit of ‘gifting’ of labor myself, and received gifts of time and things as well. I once installed a small kitchen for a friend who later gifted me a puppy. I’ve helped a couple of friends install their solar systems who later helped me work on our home. We do a lot of trading around here as well. This turns out to be a much more ‘honest’ and accountable economy than the formal economy of currency, contracts, middle men and supply chains; less waste, more efficient.
What causes pause is the number of people who consider any transaction that doesn’t involve the exchange of money invalid. Most folks simply have no Plan B, utterly reliant and invested emotionally and physically in things as they are. They have had insulated and compartmentalized lives for the most part; firewalled from consequences for generations, virtually numbed by their perceived security. As we’ve seen, they will sacrifice the rights and freedoms of all to feel ‘safe’. They take the corruption and graft as part and parcel of doing business in a BAU world.
This is what concerns me most; that these folks simply won’t handle contraction well and will turn on their own societies as their entitlements begin to evaporate. This is why community building, pre-collapse, is essential. Planting seeds of awareness and providing examples of non-reliance on complex systems can go a long way toward mitigating societal breakdown, on a local level at least; an alternate hope as greater systems begin to fail. This is the greatest benefit from any transition movement.
Best hopes for a slower collapse so folks can adapt, but not so slow as to keep the frogs in their pots.
paulo1 on Mon, 11th Nov 2013 5:59 pm
@ Ghung
re: “This is why community building, pre-collapse, is essential. Planting seeds of awareness and providing examples of non-reliance on complex systems can go a long way toward mitigating societal breakdown, on a local level at least; an alternate hope as greater systems begin to fail.”
amen, bruddah. In this vein our local community hall advertised for a carpenter to do occasional maintenance jobs etc. I contacted them and told them that if someone needed the job and there were funds, then hire them. However, since I am mostly retired and have the tools/truck etc. I would do the repairs for free provided they paid for the materials. I already have a buddy lined up to help. This isn’t a ‘transition type place’ in the conventional sense. But transition we will one day and I am trying to sow my seeds of a relocalized volunteer community before it unfolds. I believe that if we help out each other we will be able to rely on support as needed when we have to pull together.
If I was a church goer I would work within the local Menonite Church whose history of practical giving is well known. Since I’m not, a more secular version is required.
I mention this because transition movements can take many forms. I believe we will survive in community and not as individuals so much. We can have all the tools and drive to survive, but once in awhile we may need help raising the barn. It might simply be teaming up with a few other families to go to town if fuel becomes too expensive.
I will never understand why someone would want to be rich and famous, but unable to do for themselves or others. What a sad and lonely existence it must be.
Paulo
J-Gav on Mon, 11th Nov 2013 6:05 pm
Funny the way ‘gifting’ works in my experience – I’ve ‘received’ from people I never expected to (sometimes total strangers) and ‘given’ to others I had no pre-ordained reason to …
What I mean to say is that “paying it forward” often doesn’t involve a “You scratch my back I’ll scratch your back” reciprocal relationship. In other words, my gratitude for a favor received has frequently led to doing a favor … but not necessarily for the same person. For a while, I used to feel a little guilty about that but then maybe that’s just the way things work out.
GregT on Mon, 11th Nov 2013 9:05 pm
Karma, doesn’t always need to be a bitch. I am a firm believer in ‘what comes around, goes around’.
It is much better to give, than it is to receive.
jmmpeters on Mon, 11th Nov 2013 9:37 pm
see here how the thieves go to work.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFDe5kUUyT0
Keith_McClary on Tue, 12th Nov 2013 5:52 am
The mayor of Toronto is a whacko idiot, does not belong on this list.