Facing the Facts on Oil

Scientific American responds to Exxon’s ad

Just under Glenn Zorpette’s nice op-ed article in today’s New York Times (see entry below) was a large ad-ed placed by ExxonMobil. Titled “Peak Oil? Contrary to the theory, oil production shows no sign of a peak,” the piece blows smoke at the growing consensus among serious petroleum geologists that production of the cheap oil on which all modern economies are based is fast approaching the day when it stops growing to match demand, levels off for a while, and then inexorably falls. While many of its peer companies, including BP and Shell, have recognized the coming sea change and have begun (slowly) restructuring their research and development accordingly, ExxonMobil has apparently decided to address this looming socioeconomic problem by trying to convince the public and politicians that it isn’t there.

The facts suggest otherwise. Scientific American was among the first to present the scientific basis for projections of a peak in global production of conventional crude, in our 1998 special section “Preventing the Next Oil Crunch,” which led with an article on “The End of Cheap Oil.” The idea was controversial then. Now even the Bush administration’s Department of Energy offers reports warning that:

Many credible analysts have recently become much more pessimistic about the possibility of finding the huge new reserves needed to meet growing world demand.

Even the most optimistic forecasts suggest that world oil peaking will occur in less than 25 years.

The peaking of world oil production could create enormous economic disruption, as only glimpsed during the 1973 oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian oil cut-off.

Scientifc American