Exxon World Energy Outlook 2006

Exxon’s “The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030″ contains no surprises to those familiar with previous versions of their annual exercise. “Peak oil” is dismissed based on an estimate of 3-4 trillion barrels of reserves (including “frontier” reserves of tar sands etc.), but the natural gas outlook diverges from the more optimistic EIA forecasts of production in North America. Exxon’s forecast shows a continued decline in North American natural gas production, with demand growth met only through development of pipeline and LNG imports.

Exxon also (appropriately) questions the potential scale of corn-based ethanol production, (helpfully) contrasts US and Brazilian ethanol programs, and (probably accurately) expects cellulosic ethanol to provide little contribution in the next 25 years.

Exxon (PDF)