EU: THE WORLD IN 2025: Rising Asia and socio-ecological transition

pg 14. According to the International Energy Agency in 2025 the world energy demand will have increased by 50 % in relation to 2005 and will reach 15 billion tons oil equivalent.

Oil production will have started to stagnate (peak), coal is expected to become the first energy source between now and 2050. But in 2025 oil will still largely be in the lead.

In the hypothesis of an accelerated scarcity of oil and gas, with much higher prices, there will be an increased use of other energy sources which present risks or have little interest in combating climate change: oil shales, liquefied coal, first-generation biofuels, firewood resulting from deforestation

The security of energy supply will increasingly be called into question in Europe. The EU will be more dependent on external sources than in 2005 (if policy does not change). In 2030, the EU will import almost 70% of its energy needs.

pg 18. Tension between rapidly growing demand and restricted supplies due to the resources available (oil, gas) or their polluting nature (coal) should cause a constant rise in energy prices that could be contained by an increased use of renewable energy as well as progress in the reduction of energy consumption.

However around 2025 the energy question should remain a source of major tension (economic and geopolitical) due to the likely ‘oil peak‘ and the energy needs of a world of 8 billion individuals.

pg 22. The ‘oil peak‘ could be reached in 2025 or a few years later. This will call for an organized transition towards the ‘after-oil‘ era. The energy transition requires both a technological and a socio-economic effort. At the technological level, the renewable energy resources, capture and storage of CO2, nuclear power and hydrogen and fuel cells must be mentioned. As regards economic incentives, taxation, the market for pollution permits and the internalisation of external costs should be mentioned.

But it is the changes in social behaviour which will contribute, if they are stimulated by appropriate policies, to a drastic reduction in energy consumption, and this remains the major objective.

Pg 20. To …these observable tensions one could add examples of bifurcations and other unforeseeable turbulences (