Enforced relocalization

Most relocalization planning (that is available on the net) is for an optimum, sustainable socio-economic configuration after a slow energy descent or powerdown. There seems to be hardly any focus upon forced relocalization as a result of a severe economic dislocation and hence relocalization planning akin to civil defense/disaster emergency preparedness. Enforced relocalization is perhaps the more likely prospect and preparing for conflict during relocalization deserves more attention.

By now it is common knowledge that we are in a period of transition at the end of relatively cheap oil. Not the end of oil; certainly not the end of fossil fuels which remain abundant. But close to if not past the peak production of conventional oil.

The most informative analogy is with AIDS: AIDS is a long term debilitating disease; a person doesn’t die of AIDS but is increasingly susceptible to opportunistic infections and cancers that take advantage of a weakened immune system. Petrocollapse isn’t the danger. We will not run out of oil – just the cheap oil we have become used to – but depletion of our socio-economy’s primary fuel has made us vulnerable to a Great Depression style dislocation.

Commentators predict variants of the following scenario:

Energy Bulletin