Energy: The End of Cheap Oil

..The facts about oil supply, our primary energy source, have been known for some time. The body of literature on oil supply is very compelling, but seldom makes the bestseller list. What is really surprising is the silence from the mainstream media and our elected officials about this enormous issue that has been bearing down on us for decades. The amount of oil in the earth has been estimated by international bodies to be 2 trillion barrels. In the past 140 years since initial oil production in 1860, we have used half of the world’s supply, leaving approximately 1 trillion barrels. The current rate of oil consumption is 27 billion barrels a year which, when you do the calculations, leaves just 37 years of supply.

In addition to running out of our prime energy source by 2041, there are other commonly asked questions to consider when planning for the future:

..While this may sound like the harbinger of a new Dark Age, there are things we can and must do to ameliorate the coming problems. We need to understand that the next 25 years for planning will be very different from the last. Planners are in a unique position to help mobilize ideas and resources to start addressing the scope of such enormous change. Planners are supposed to see the big picture and understand ways of protecting the “public good.” It is not enough to simply defer to other specialists in the hope that they will find the solution. No one has a solution at present. For example, planners in the past were often focused on policy documents and the creation of land-use diagrams to guide future development. Newly built communities frequently fell well short of everybody’s expectations. The details of built form were left to other specialists who had other interests and lacked the broader context of societal needs. More recently, where planners play key roles in the design and development of new communities by direct participation and through the organization of multidisciplinary teams which transfer essential design ideas into enforcement policies, we have seen a marked improvement.

As planners we have already heard about the importance and need for designing our living areas in compact and diverse ways so that we can reduce energy demand, support transit and provide employment opportunities close to mixed-use communities. While much of the energy issue is tied to international dynamics, many of the solutions lie in changing our habits at home. Some municipalities have tentatively started to implement these ideas while many others are still debating the very need to make changes. City areas are going to have their share of problems, but it is lower-density, postwar suburbs that are going to shoulder the burden of these changes. If municipalities have not already started to address these basic steps, it means that the chances of success are diminished and a reactive response can only try to catch up to the problem. The implications of running out of cheap energy, coinciding with major public health issues and an aging population go well beyond our previous expectations of responding to societal change and needs. Planners must start thinking and planning for new imperatives.

Energy Bulletin